Saturday’s regular-season-ending slate for some college basketball teams starts off with a bang, as the No. 19 Kentucky Wildcats, under their new Mark Pope regime, head to Columbia to face off against the No. 15 Missouri Tigers at 12:00pm ET. As college basketball’s Conference Championship Week looms—the SEC gauntlet awaiting both these two juggernauts—a game like this has steep meaning for all the tournaments that lay ahead for many D1 teams the rest of this month. Missouri’s basketball squad has been on a bit of a downturn, while Pope’s Kentucky Wildcats seem to be righting the ship.
Here’s how I’m playing Kentucky vs. Missouri, with analysis below. Follow me on my handle @dansby_edits for more college hoops plays, especially live ones on a slate as oversaturated with action as tomorrow.
No. 15 Missouri vs. No. 19 Kentucky hoops preview
What’s a bit unfortunate about this entire bet evaluation is that it came down to a single question for me: does Kentucky’s recent fantastic play warrant enough respect to believe they can go on the road to Columbia and steal a road win?
Anytime a team comes damn near 100 points at home, you feel pretty confident about their ability to go outscore anyone, no matter where they’re playing. But the last time Kentucky went on the road to a ranked team’s house and won was on January 25th, against the Tennessee Volunteers. Since then, they’ve lost on the road to: Ole Miss (unranked at the time), Texas (unranked), and Alabama (obviously ranked). They came close to dropping one in Norman to unranked Oklahoma. It hasn’t been easy away from home for the Wildcats.
You see that in how the Tigers are respected in the line; though they’re in a bit of a freefall, Mizzou is still getting more than just the typical home-point advantage on the betting market—the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook is 4.5 points in favor of Missouri.
I think that line is too high, and I believe in Lamont Butler’s ability to defend Mizzou’s star scorers Caleb Grill (14.4 PPG, 42.6 3P%) and Tamar Bates (13.1 PPG, 40.7 3P%). Kentucky’s defense has been on the rise—a reminder that they’d fallen outside the top-100 at the beginning of February. Then came the Ole Miss game, and everything changed.
Kentucky vs. Missuouri basketball prediction, best bet
Kentucky, offensively, lives and dies by their efficiency, but Missouri is disruptive enough to throw that off. We’ll take that second-in-the-SEC ranking at forcing turnovers (18.8% clip) and expect it to disrupt Kentucky’s shooters just enough that the disruptions will add up: home court advantage, frustration at shots not falling, lots of contested shots, etc.
This feels like a classic letdown spot for Kentucky; if Mark Pope wins, they head into Selection Sunday with a three-seed in reach, and that somehow feels just right if they can make it happen tomorrow. If they lose, they play in the eight-seed/nine-seed matchup next Thursday in the SEC tournament. That feels more like where Kentucky belonged before this new Mark Pope era, and, somehow, Kentucky always finds itself under brighter lights than they’re prepared for. Mark Pope’s first year will see him claim the six-seed in next week’s SEC tournament.
I like the way their adjusted tempo matches up against a Missouri team that’s struggling at the wrong time, especially as Kentucky’s defensive KenPom rating (56th now) has seen such a respectable rise during conference play. All momentum says Kentucky should keep this one close, if not get a stunning road win in Columbia.
Best bet: Both teams to score o40.5 points in 2H (+105)
They still are the fifth-and-sixth-best offenses in the league, according to KenPom. I don’t expect the second half to be the lower-scoring of the two. You can find this game in the Halves subtab on your Sportsbook app, or just tail it with me in the DKNetwork Betting Group by clicking here.
Dan’s bet ATS: Kentucky +4.5 (-110)
Tail Kentucky to cover the spread in Columbia to close out their regular season with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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