The madness of March has come early with some wild endings already headlining the weekend. But the action continues with some intriguing matchups as NCAA Tournament tickets begin to get punched. While the matchup between Michigan and Michigan State may not carry as much weight as past competitions, sometimes rivalries bring out the best in teams and this game will still carry some NCAA Tournament implications.
Michigan State has already clinched the Big Ten title and has shown an impressive ability to flip the switch in games. It enters this matchup on an eight-game winning streak with seven of these victories coming while it trailed at halftime. The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in the second half in these games.
Michigan does not enter with as much momentum but has shown some flashes this season. It will be looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses at the hands of Maryland and Illinois. An upset victory in this matchup would be a nice statement to end the regular season before conference tournament play picks up.
These two teams faced off for the first time just two weeks ago. Michigan State produced a 75-62 victory and outscored the Wolverines 41-24 in the second half. This game took place at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor but these teams will now face off with the Michigan State home crowd behind them.
Michigan State enters tonight as a 6.5-point favorite and -298 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Michigan holds +240 odds for the outright victory and the game total is set at 145.5 for this matchup.
Michigan State Analysis
The Spartans enter this matchup with a 25-5 record on the season and a 16-3 record in Big Ten play. Tom Izzo’s squad has gone 11-4 against Quad 1 opponents with the losses coming to Kansas, Memphis, USC and UCLA. They also lost at home to Indiana, which marks their lone Quad 2 blemish, but they have climbed to the eighth-ranked team in the country. This is the highest they have reached all season.
Jaden Akins is the straw that stirs the drink for Michigan State but it possesses a well-balanced attack. Akins is averaging 13.0 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.6 assists despite shooting below 30% from beyond the three-point arc. Jase Richardson also adds 11.3 points per game with five other players averaging 7.0 points or more per game.
As a team, Michigan State ranks 68th in the country in scoring and 50th in points allowed. It is 14th in rebounding and 15th in assists but struggles greatly from the perimeter. No player on the roster is shooting better than 38.8% from beyond the three-point arc with more than 30 perimeter attempts on the season. The Spartans connect on just 29.9% of three-point attempts as a team.
Luckily, Michigan State can match its perimeter issues with its defense on the other side of the floor. The Spartans are holding opponents to the sixth-worst three-point percentage and 19th-worst field-goal percentage on the season. Opponents are shooting just 40.2% from the field overall and 28.5% from the perimeter on the season.
Michigan Analysis
The Wolverines enter this game with a 22-8 overall record and a 14-5 record in Big Ten conference play. They are 9-6 on the season against Quad 1 opponents and also dropped a pair of Quad 2 matchups at the hands of Wake Forest and Minnesota. Michigan has climbed as high as the 12th-ranked team in the country but is currently ranked 17th.
Vladislav Goldin, a 7-foot-1 forward, leads the team in scoring and leads the conference in effective field-goal percentage. He is averaging 16.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. Yale transfer Danny Wolf also leads the conference in rebounding at 9.6 per game while adding 12.7 points per matchup. The starting lineup is rounded out by Tre Donaldson, Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle Jr., who each average 9.9 points per game or greater.
Dusty May’s squad ranks 60th in the country in scoring and has some concerns on the defensive end. It allows 71.4 points per game, which ranks 166th in the country and it does not crack the top 100 in defensive rating. This is a bit surprising considering Michigan ranks 37th in opponent field-goal percentage allowed and 83rd in opponent three-point percentage allowed. The Wolverines do a nice job sharing the ball on offense and are 41st in the country in assists as a team.
The Pick: Michigan State -6.5
The biggest concern in this matchup is the motivation factor. With the Big Ten title already in hand and this game not holding much weight, this is a bit of a throwaway game until the conference tournament starts. However, the NCAA factors in every performance when setting up the bracket and both these teams have deep tournament aspirations.
While there may be more motivation on Michigan’s side, it does not make up for the gap in these teams. The Spartans are playing their best basketball and showing the signs of peaking at the right time while the Wolverines are coming off back-to-back losses.
Look for this game to play out similarly to the 75-62 victory they previously produced. The Spartans controlled the rebounding battle in that game and still produced a comfortable victory even while Jaden Akins was limited to 11 points on 4-for-14 shooting and went 1-for-6 on three-point attempts.
Expect this game to remain competitive until Michigan State flips the switch to a level that Michigan cannot reach. The Spartans have looked better on the wider scale of the season and have been especially impressive as of late. Don’t be shocked if their streak of strong second halves continues and look for Michigan State to pile it on late. Of their 25 wins, 21 have been by seven points or more, so look for it to add to this by covering the -6.5 point spread in the cross-state matchup.
