The Maine Event had himself a night in Cameron for its Senior celebration, no? And, if you followed my previous (which, to be fair, is my first-and-only) Flagg prop column, you’d have cashed in droves. We went three-for-three on his props—both points and assists. The lights don’t get any dimmer headed into the weekend—arguably, from a matchup standpoint, they’re brighter—as Flagg and the Blue Devils head to Chapel Hill to face the UNC Tar Heels on Saturday. Odds are this’ll be one of the best—and most frequently-bet—games of the night, given the Senior Night celebration for the baby-blues, and the expected dominance from the royal Blue Devils.
Conference Championship Week is already underway for some minor-market conferences; the big boys start slugging it out in a matter of days. Let’s evaluate Cooper Flagg’s prop market against the Tar Heels with all the tournament implications in mind.
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Cooper Flagg’s best prop bet for Duke vs. UNC on Saturday
Cooper Flagg 8+ rebounds
Flagg got to the free-throw line six times in his Senior Night game against Wake Forest, but only made 50% of them. Somehow, he was still dominant enough to cash in on 26 points when only three ticks game from the charity stripe. He was utterly dominant, but we’re not going to back his points tonight. The markets seem to be adjusting to all the national attention shifting to college basketball as March Madness looms. 22+ points, while within reach, and a fine bet, is simply just a little too steep for me to take after watching Tyson Degenhart and Dalton Dent get stymied last night out West.
What we can count on from the Maine Event against North Carolina in Chapel Hill tonight is relentless effort. That’ll show tonight on the glass. Why? The freshman phenom has been a rebounding titan for Duke in the backcourt, averaging 8.7 rebounds per game this season. In high-stakes matchups—hello, Blue Blood rivalry game on Saturday night!—he demands the opponents out-hustle him on the glass, notably grabbing 12 rebounds in Duke’s recent victory over Virginia.
North Carolina ranks 89th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and Flagg has, probably, adjusted world-number-one willpower to rally to the ball. KenPom this, KenPom that. Flagg being Flagg positions him well to exploit missed shots against a Tar Heel team with big ambitions. With the added intensity of senior night at the Dean E. Smith Center, expect The Maine Event to creep toward double-digit rebounds, even if he doesn’t clear his point total.
Best bet: Cooper Flagg 8+ rebounds
Tail the Maine Event to dominate the glass with me in the DKN Betting group here!
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