One cool thing about the Rookie of the Year award is that, by nature of the award, you can never win it twice. Last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil of the Yankees, beat out Colton Cowser of the Orioles and Mason Miller of the Athletics. It’s always one of my personal favorite races to watch unfold as the season goes on, as you get to know the new arrivals in the league. It is also a race that usually shifts and changes as the season goes on and players heat up and cool down.
This year’s AL Rookie of the Year favorite is Jasson Dominguez (+380), the much-hyped Yankees’ top prospect. He’s followed by his future rival Roman Anthony (+550) of the Red Sox, who has the second-shortest odds, and then a pair of players at +800 that includes Anthony’s teammate Kristian Campbell (+800) and Tigers’ pitcher Jackson Jobe (+800).
In this post, I’ll take a look at Dominguez as the frontrunner and a few other longshot picks I’m excited to see this season who I think can make a run for the award.
2025 AL Rookie of the Year Award Odds
Jasson Dominguez (+380)
Dominguez deserves to be the favorite. Like MVP, Rookie of the Year is an award that is definitely narrative-based. If “The Martian” breaks through and is a key part of the Yankees’ lineup, it’s hard to see him losing the award to anyone who plays in a smaller market.
Manager Aaron Boone has said Dominguez is a candidate to hit leadoff for the Bronx Bombers, which would give him a chance to rack up plenty of runs scored if he can get on base. In 58 games in the minor leagues last year, he hit .314 with 11 home runs with 16 stolen bases and a .392 wOBA. He was limited to that few games by injury, but he was healthy in 2023 when he hit 15 homers and stole 40 bases, mostly in Double-A.
If he’s healthy and hitting leadoff, it’s easy to see him claiming this award, and getting him at +380 isn’t bad at all. His power and speed combo give him both a high ceiling and a high floor this year in New York.
Jasson Dominguez goes oppo a few innings after beating out a single with Bobby Witt Jr speed
2025 is gonna be so much fun if the Martian is actually here pic.twitter.com/Ot4J4HV9QC
— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) March 4, 2025
Christian Moore (+1000)
One thing that Moore has that some other top prospects may struggle to find is opportunity. Even the Red Sox’s players with much shorter odds may begin the season in the minors for a while, as the Sox don’t have much room for them. Moore won’t have that problem with the Angels. He was already competing for playing time at 2B and will also play some 3B in Spring Training after Anthony Rendon’s hip injury, stretching the Halos’ infield depth even thinner.
The Angels made Moore the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, but he wouldn’t be the first Angels’ prospect to reach the majors at an expedited rate. Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto quickly made their way to the Majors after being first-round picks.
Last year in 25 games in Single-A and Double-A, Moore hit .347 (35-for-101) with six doubles, six homers and a .449 wOBA. That’s obviously a very small sample size, but he’s already the No. 1 Angels prospect, per MLB Pipeline. He probably would have made it to the MLB last September if not for a late-season injury.
He’s healthy this Spring Training, though, and he has looked solid in the early going. He’s 6-for-19 (.316) with a triple and three walks. He’ll have an uphill battle getting headlines in Anaheim, but the opportunity is there to consider him as a long shot flier bet.
Christian Moore is definitely making a strong case for the #Angels to keep him up. I’m a bit torn on whether I’d prefer to see him stay or be sent down, but either way, I’m happy to see him having a solid spring! 🔥
His updated stats after today are:
•19 AB
•.316 AVG
•0 HR… pic.twitter.com/yBC07lZbmt— ⚾️🏈Joseph🏀🏒 (@loveofsports24) March 5, 2025
Jack Leiter (+3500)
The Rangers have a fascinating rotation to watch as they look to erase last year’s disappointing World Series title defense. Not only is veteran Jacob deGrom back in the mix, but the Rangers have a pair of electric young arms that should get a chance to contribute this year in Leiter and his college teammate Kumar Rocker (+2000).
Rocker has been better during his rise to the MLB, but Leiter has made some adjustments that could pay off and carry him to a huge 2025. The Rangers took Leiter with the No. 2 overall pick back in 2021 and expected him to be the team’s future ace. Unfortunately, that isn’t how his development has gone. He has had great strikeout numbers but has also given up too much hard-hit contact.
In 2022, he had a rough first year as a professional in Double-A, going 3-10 with a 10.6 K/9 and an ugly 5.54 ERA. He improved in 2023, cranking up his strikeouts to 12.1 K/9, but still posting a 5.07 ERA. In 2024, he climbed to Triple-A and found success, going 6-4 with a 12.9 K/9 with a 3.51 ERA. However, when he moved up for his first MLB experience, he was hammered, giving up 39 runs in 35 2/3 innings.
Can he translate his high strikeout totals and adjust to the MLB level in 2024? Early in Spring Training, Leiter has shown lots of positive signs. He came back from the offseason with additional velocity after a mechanical tweak with an extra two mph on his four-seam fastball. He’s also added a couple of new pitches to his arsenal, including what he calls a “kick change” which could be a very effective change of pace with movement.
How much difference can a couple of miles per hour make? Check this out:
This Jack Leiter stat is shocking 🤯https://t.co/N1qj1CI4gL pic.twitter.com/gl0on4liUo
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) February 27, 2025
Leiter is a big enough name and has enough prospect pedigree that if he dominates for the Rangers, he should get enough attention to compete for the AL Rookie of the Year Award. He’s definitely a long shot pick, but his offseason changes have him on the right path.
