This week’s PGA TOUR event takes us out to Bay Hill in Orlando, FL, and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a signature field event that will host 72 of the top golfers in the PGA this week.
Bay Hill is a tough Florida Course that plays as a Par 72 and over 7,400 yards in length. I wrote more about Bay Hill in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet.
“Lately, Bay Hill has been set up to play as one of the toughest on the PGA TOUR, with the rough typically playing to “major championship” caliber and the wind providing extra defense. The venue played as the hardest course on the PGA TOUR in 2020—even compared to the major championship venues—and yielded just a 74.106 scoring average. In two of the last five seasons, the winning score has failed to exceed 5-under par and in 2023 the winner posted 9-under.
As mentioned above, Bay Hill features Bermuda greens and, as a traditional par 72, also features four par 5s, none of which play longer than 570 yards. As such, these holes will still yield a lot of birdies or better, and most of the past winners here have tended to dominate these holes during the week. With wider fairways, strokes gained off the tee stats don’t tend to matter as much as you would think they would on a longer course. Top finishers at Bay Hill tend to gain far more on approach than any other category, and with plenty of tough approaches into water-protected greens, it’s easy to see why. The 2022 winner, Scottie Scheffler, actually lost strokes off the tee but led the field in approach stats and the 2023 winner, Kurt Kitayama, only gained 0.4 strokes OTT (but gained 7.7 strokes around the green + putting).”
Despite the tough setup, players can go low here if they are hitting their irons well. There is some poorer weather in the forecast but both Friday and Saturday have slightly lower winds so we could still see some lower scores.
DraftKings Pick6 has both Round 1 and Full tournament totals up and for this week, I’ll be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals to use for your Pick6 lineups.
Below, I’ll give you my best ideas for this week’s Arnold Palmer DraftKings Pick6 lineups for the full event.
Justin Thomas Better Than 22.5 Finishing Position
I like Justin Thomas quite a bit this week. The American is second in opportunities gained and fifth in birdies or better gained over the past 24 rounds, both marks that set him in front of this week’s betting favorite Scottie Scheffler. His last two events have also seen him gain over 5.0 strokes on approach.
Thomas is still looking for that breakthrough moment to signify a true comeback to top form but you can tell the American is close and is very focused on getting back to being one of the top 5 players in the world. He’s gotten progressively better at this event each of the past couple of seasons, landing a career-best T12 at Bay Hill last year. He’s also a multi-time winner in Florida grabbing wins at Sawgrass and the notoriously tough PGA National.
At 22.5, all we need from Thomas is a top 20 and that’s a mark he’s achieved easily in three of his last four starts. Hard not to love the “better than” for him this week in Pick6 lineups.
Min Woo Lee Better Than 35.5 Finishing Position
Min Woo Lee is someone else who I expect could see some big weeks during this Florida swing. He started slowly at the Cognizant Classic but came back nicely, throwing together three solid rounds in a row to finish T-11. Lee gained strokes across all the major categories last week and is, in general, a tremendous putter and scrambler who comes in ranked fifth in around-the-green stats on the season.
While his irons can be inconsistent, he gained 1.1 strokes on approach last week at PGA National and showcased better form at Pebble Beach last month in that area, gaining 3.8 strokes that week on approach. While his best finish in three tries at Bay Hill remains a T-44 from last season, he has finished T-9 at Sawgrass (on debut) and T-2 and T-11 (last week) at PGA National. This suggests these Florida courses may in fact be a great spot to target him.
With his total set to 35.5 we essentially just need the Aussie to finish inside the top half of the field to cash the Better Than. Given his form and good record in Florida, I don’t have any reason not to be bullish on him in this spot either.
Taylor Pendrith Worse Than 33.5 Finishing Position
Despite conditions being soft in Round 1 last week, Pendrith STILL cashed the over on 2.5 bogies or worse for us at PGA National in last week’s Round 1 Pick6 card. Here is some of what I wrote about him in that blurb last week, much of which still applies to this week.
“Pendrith started the season hot but some obvious holes are forming in his game. He’s just 86th in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds of play and has lost strokes putting and around the greens in each of his last two starts. Maybe he just needed a break or rest, but the truth is this setup isn’t the greatest for Pendrith, who is a bomber off the tee and generally benefits from a softer and more expansive setup.”
He failed to make the cut at PGA National last week, which was his second poor outing in a row and now comes to the notoriously tough Bay Hill. Bay Hill will force him to rely on his short game and putter, which have both lost him considerable strokes against the field in three straight events.
With this field featuring plenty of talent, the Canadian is someone I’m happy actively fading, and even with a total of just 33.5, am happy to take the “worse than” on his finishing position this week.
Harris English More Than 12.5 Birdies or Better
This is a very low four-round total on Harris English, who won a PGA event just a month or so ago. At 12.5, we only need English to average 3.25 birdies or better per round and Bay Hill happens to be a track he’s shown great upside at over his career. Over his past four visits to the course, he’s finished inside the top 30 on all four attempts and finished inside the top 10 twice.
He also rebounded from a tough showing at Pebble Beach with a T24 at the Genesis in his last outing, where he gained big on the greens and over a stroke on approach. We don’t need him to be brilliant to hit the more than on this one, just not be overtly terrible, something I’m fine trusting this week given his course history.
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