It was ten years ago this season when the Cubs headed into Spring Training with every intention of calling up their superstar rookie third-baseman, Kris Bryant, to join the ranks of a scrappy and ascending lineup that Theo Epstein, Joe Maddon, & co. had thrown together for their 2015 roster. The hype was so real it bled over into the city’s infrastructure: Billboards lined Chicago interstates, begging the organization to skip the contract-scheming by keeping Bryant down in the minors for the first few weeks of the regular season for arbitration reasons.
Adidas takes shot at Cubs with Kris Bryant billboard across from Wrigley marquee http://t.co/Y5QMjdIVbT pic.twitter.com/UsDXOdUoUR
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) April 4, 2015
When he finally got called up, it was clear the Chicago Cubs had curated a synergy between prospects and vets that, individually and as a collective, flourished into fantasy baseball breakouts, with sleepers and keepers abound.
We all know how that era has quite literally defined this century of Chicago Cubs baseball, and it all started with a lineup that—dare I say it—was just plain fun (minus, of course, the Addison Russell of it all). Hard for Bryzzo-era Cub fans to look at many years after the 2016 World Series and think that the Cubs put together an offense that showed as much promise—again, and this is important, both individually and collectively—and commitment to each other as a group as that championship squad. I say it again: they were fun. And then they weren’t.
A new era
Ten years, one World Series ring, a fire sale, and about three swift and unsuccessful post-Bryzzo-eras later, and it’s time to sound the triumphant bells of a return to fun baseball in Wrigley again. Because, ultimately, it all starts with a promise, and ends with the players. And this year, we’ve got both. Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Matt Shaw all form an edgy four-pronged attack of of underclassmen while vets Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki—now one of the best pure hitters in the MLB—assume leadership roles in the offensive clubhouse.
Say all you want about how quickly the hopes for a Bryzzo-era dynasty flamed out. About how the poorest decision of them all was to trade away Willson Contreras, whose xRC figures the past two years likely would have propelled the Cubs to a playoff team. Or about how making Grandpa Rossy manager wasn’t the answer in the post-Maddon years. The Ricketts/Sosa feud. The list goes on. It hasn’t been pretty for the Cubs since the parade in 2016.
It’s time to turn the page, at least for this Cubs fan. The 2015-2017 Cubs were one of the most electrifying teams in baseball at the time, and I think the 2025 Cubs have a chance to catch some of that Wrigleyville lightning. Get ready for this lineup to take off in 2025.
Below, I list all Cubs I think might be values at their current ADP according to NFC Baseball. We’re not even going to get to what Kyle Tucker does for this lineup.
Best Chicago Cubs to target on fantasy baseball draft day 2025
Michael Busch, INF/1B (ADP 246)
Let’s cover Busch first, here, because I think his value at an average 20th-ranked first-baseman is potentially through-the-roof. There’s plenty of reason for optimism. I have him closer to the Tristan Casas/Paul Goldschmidt/Spencer Steer tier than I do the Encarnacion-Strand/Mountcastle/Lowe group. Call him my 1B13.
Busch finished last season with 21 home runs, but his expected home run figure (xHR) had him at 26, which isn’t an insignificant disparity. What’s the advanced batting metric that points up so much? His home runs per fly ball percentage (HR/F). While he finished the year at a 15% clip in that figure, his expected home runs per fly ball percentage (xHR/F) was 19% on the year. This is supported by a much higher Quality of Batted Ball score (QBaB) in the second-half of last season as the first.
As such, power numbers project for upward of 30 home runs this year, especially because he’s starting to hit lefties better, and has improved his defense vastly. What I mean by that is: opportunity should rise proportionately. He blew his previous highest plate appearances (504) out of the water with 567 last year. Keep him healthy and get him closer to, say, Ian Happ’s plate appearances (660), and we’ve got a potential Jared Walsh-esque breakout season ahead.
For those of you looking at MLB futures on DraftKings Sportsbook, Busch is currently +165 to hit 25+ home runs, which I’ve bet (you can tail me here) and will cover in a forthcoming MLB futures article.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF/CF (ADP 136)
Crow-Armstrong is easily my favorite player on this new Cubs offense—maybe soon to be lapped by the guy we’ll go over next—but his value is a bit more in-the-ballpark than Busch’s, only if you’re considering the floor safety. Busch is a steal at his current ADP in terms of floor and ceiling; PCA is a steal if you believe he’s prepped to take the next step in his approach at the plate, like I do. What that could do for his ceiling is astronomic.
It all started with the ever-dangerous in-season batting stance tweak. He shifted his approach a bit in-season last year: PCA added a leg-kick, and, mercifully, it only helped accentuate his raw bat-to-ball metrics. Check out his first half vs. second half splits:
| STAT | OPS | OPS+ | Contact rate | HR/F | xHR/F | Barrel rate |
| First half 2024 | .551 | 80 | 68% | 3% | 8% | 4% |
| Second half 2024 | .761 (+.260) | 105 (+25) | 76% (+8%) | 11% (+8%) | 11% (+3%) | 9% (+5%) |
Chalk his paltry home run total in the first half to some bad HR/F luck, but the improvement in plate approach is remarkable. If you buy into the second half being Crow-Armstrong’s new average, you’re looking at a potential 20 HR/40 SB player. These are fantastic signs for PCA’s ability to burgeon into a fantasy baseball megadragon.
His security in that lineup is locked; he’s one of the most graceful and exciting centerfielders in the game. He may not lead off for a bit, as Craig Counsell might see if PCA’s plate approach has translated to the offseason.
You’re paying up for him already in best ball/roto leagues because of the speed (my colleague and favorite baseball mind Zach Thompson wrote about PCA’s upside in his 2025 Best Ball OF Rankings here), but, in category/H2H leagues, you might be able to get him at a discount.
There are too many people who’ll see PCA as a pure speed asset. Savvy drafters saw the implementation of the leg kick and started the clock over from there.
The ceiling, here, might be a Grady Sizemore season of old. More recently, let’s call the ceiling Byron-Buxton-lite.
PCA is currently -120 to steal 30+ bases on DraftKings Sportsbook, which I’ve bet a full unit on. He’s also +240 to steal 40+ bases, and that was enough value for me to sprinkle as well.
Matt Shaw, INF/3B/2B/SS (ADP 268)
We don’t love that he suffered an oblique injury headed into Spring Training that delayed his lineup debut until March 2nd—just this past weekend. Before that, it seemed almost a certainty that you’d be getting the Chicago Cubs’ everyday hot-corner helmer at this price, which was enough to be excited about, given the pedigree. The Cubs have fast-tracked him through the minors—he hit 21 home runs and swiped 31 bags across the minor league season. He spent the final 35 games in AAA Iowa, and adjusted fine.
The raw power metrics suggest the home runs will come, but not necessarily immediately in 2025. But more outlandish things have happened when a lineup has clicked than a young guy catching his launch angle and bat speed early. He did, after all, set the University of Maryland’s record for home runs, with 53.
I won’t lie: I love Shaw. Let’s pay attention to his health throughout Spring Training, but this is a potential box-score filler, should we see an encouraging confluence of positive vectors in the next few weeks. What will matter first is opportunity. The big-league adjustments will roll in.
The positional eligibility all around the infield makes him an appealing late-round add no matter the format. But don’t expect him to hang around until ADP 268 for much longer; his stove is hot, and only getting hotter. If he hits a few balls that clear the fence in Spring Training, the jump will likely be steep.
Get in early.
