As is often the case on Thursdays, we’ve got an extremely light slate in baseball tonight. There are just four games taking place under the lights, and with some underwhelming pitchers set to take the mound, the moneyline odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook are all looking pretty lopsided. I guess what I’m trying to say is: This is a prop night.
Let’s dive into the action on the diamond.
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25263747/IMG_9722.jpeg)
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs (+330)
Triston Casas Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)
While Austin Cox will open tonight’s tilt against the Red Sox, he’ll be followed in a bulk role by Alec Marsh. There’s no real way to sugarcoat the young RHP’s season. He’s just been plain bad. Marsh has appeared in seven games at the MLB level, pitching to a 6.75 ERA and a 7.87 FIP across 28.0 innings. How does one’s FIP get so cartoonishly high? Home runs. Marsh has surrendered 10 of them to opposing hitters, due mostly to the perfect storm of a 48.0% fly ball rate and a measly 11.3% soft contact rate. I’ve save you from doing the math. That’s 3.21 opponent long balls per nine.
Knowing all that, it’s probably not difficult to figure out how I’ve zeroed in on Devers and Casas as my home run lottery tickets. Devers leads Boston with 26 big flies in 2023, and he’s been hitting with a lot of power since the All-Star break, posting an eye-popping .303 ISO over his last 84 plate appearances. Casas has arguably been better than his teammate in recent months, slashing .315/.400/.631 with a 175 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching since the beginning of June. If one of these two goes deep, you’re happy, yet don’t sleep on the likelihood that both take Marsh yard this evening. It is Fenway Park, after all.
St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays
Matthew Liberatore Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+125)
At first glance, this prop seems ridiculous. How could an MLB pitcher not strikeout at least three batters in a game? Especially one that’s registered a 29.7% strikeout rate across 11 Triple-A outings in 2023. However, the more you dig into Liberatore’s big league numbers, the more you’re left wanting. It’s only a 37.2 inning sample, but the left-hander has been completely unable to translate his success from the minors. In fact, Liberatore ranks in the first percentile of pitchers in strikeout rate (12.6%) and the second percentile in whiff rate (6.6%). Woof.
Things get even worse when you isolate Liberatore’s last three trips to the mound for the Cardinals. The 23-year-old has faced 52 opposing hitters in that stretch, yet has managed only a pair of strikeouts. That’s a 3.8% strikeout rate. Not to be rude, but that honestly looks more like a clerical error than an MLB statistic. Needless to say, the under hit in all three of those outings. It’s actually hit in six of Liberatore’s nine starts. At plus-money, I’ll take my chances that it hits again on Thursday.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
