Aaron Judge.
That was a quick article, wasn’t it? It probably won’t come as too much of a shock to know that Judge, the man who has almost 50 more home runs than any other player since his rookie season in 2017, is the current favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to once again lead MLB in long balls.
But where’s the fun in that? Let’s explore some long shot bets with the 2025 season less than a month away.
2025 MLB Player Props: Home Run Leader
Juan Soto (+2800)
If I’m being honest, everyone outside of Aaron Judge (+400) and Shohei Ohtani (+600) is a long shot bet, as baseball’s two MVPs from 2024 were simply in a class of their own when it came to hitting home runs last season.
Still, when we’re talking generational talents, Juan Soto is another name that warrants mention. Here’s what we know about Soto. First and foremost: He posts. The 26-year-old has taken at least 650 plate appearances in every full campaign since 2019. He’s also on the heels of his best offensive showing. With the Yankees, Soto hit a career-high 41 home runs, finishing the year ranking in the 100th percentile in expected wOBA (.462) and the 99th percentile in expected slugging (.646) and barrel rate (19.7%).
Citi Field is not Yankee Stadium. It plays far closer to league-average in Park Factors when it comes to long balls. On top of that, there’s a case to be made that Soto is still far too passive at the plate to every lead baseball in a raw counting stat. Even acknowledging all that, would you be shocked in Soto clubbed 50 homers in 2025? Of course not. He’s a phenom. A future Hall of Fame player. At these odds, I’ll take a shot.
Brent Rooker (+3000)
Brent Rooker was possibly the biggest surprise of 2024. It’s not that the 30-year-old came out of nowhere — he’s a former competitive balance round pick that hit 30 home runs in 2023 — but I don’t think anyone expected Rooker to take that next leap to legitimate All-Star. Yet that’s exactly what happened. Rooker ranked among the league leaders in both actual long balls (39) and expected ones (39.9). He sat in the 100th percentile in expected wOBA on batted ball events (.510) and the 97th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.557) and barrel rate (16.6).
Maybe most importantly, Rooker hit 24 of his home runs on the road last season, registering an eye-popping .304 ISO within the split. That could be a sign of things to come in 2025. The Oakland Coliseum was undoubtedly a pitcher’s ball park and that was especially true when it came to home runs. In fact, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, the Coliseum was the league’s second-worst place to hit long balls from 2022 to 2024, with only Oracle Park ranking lower.
Now, Sutter Health Park isn’t exactly Coors Field, but it’ll certainly be an improvement. Rooker said as much when he talked to MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos last month. “I think it’s going to be more offensive than the Coliseum was, just because of how pitcher-friendly it was there. But I think the idea that it’s going to be like a launching pad or play tiny is probably not quite right. I’m thinking it will probably be about league average, maybe a little better than league average.” I’ll take his word for it.
Mike Trout (+5000)
I know. I know. But I just can’t quit Trout and I can’t shake the feeling (hope?) that he’ll be able to put together one last healthy campaign in the prime of his career. Trout hasn’t taken 600 plate appearances in a single season since 2019. You’d have to go all the way back to 2016 to find a season with at least 650 plate appearances. Still, on the rare occasion that he is healthy, Trout remains one of the league’s best hitters.
We only got a 29-game sample in 2024, but Trout’s .405 expected wOBA, .591 expected slugging and 17.1% barrel rate all would’ve ranked near or at the 99th percentile of qualified bats. Going back to the beginning of 2022, Trout’s managed 68 home runs and a .301 ISO in just 987 plate appearances. In that same span, the former MVP is averaging a long ball once every 12.6 at-bats.
Putting any faith in Trout to have a full season’s worth of PAs is probably fool’s gold at this point in his career, but the Angels at least acknowledged their star’s frailty by moving him to right field this offseason. You’re also not going to find anyone else with odds below 50/1 that legitimately has the potential to hit 50 homers — no matter how farfetched and injury-prone that potential may be. It’s worth a sprinkle. Live a little.
