Yesterday’s slate was highlighted by the Detroit Pistons extending their win streak to eight games with a demolition of the previously-hot Boston Celtics, and while today is a smaller slate, it still has the potential for some great action. The highlight is arguably a battle between the two best big men in the league, the Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokić and the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Here are my top bets for Thursday’s games at DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s hoops action, with one bet from each game.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. ET
Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks, 8 p.m. ET
Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns, 9 p.m. ET
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, 9:30 p.m. ET
Golden State Warriors -7.5 Alternate Spread (+132)
The Jimmy Butler era in Golden State couldn’t have gotten off to a better start. Since adding Butler, the Warriors are 6-1, and the 35-year-old is averaging 18.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game. Golden State is outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per 100 possessions with Butler on the floor, and it has a plus-17.0 net rating overall since he joined the team, the league’s second-best across that span.
The only team ahead of them — the Cleveland Cavaliers — just beat the Magic by 40 on Tuesday in a game that Darius Garland didn’t play and Donovan Mitchell left with three minutes, 44 seconds remaining in the third quarter. It wasn’t even a game in which Orlando stars Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero played particularly terribly; the bench just went five-for-26 from the field and zero-for-13 from deep. That’s somewhat concerning; if one of Wagner or Banchero had a horrible shooting night, it would be reasonable to predict a regression to the mean. But none of the Magic’s bench guys are quality NBA pieces, especially on offense. Without Jalen Suggs, who’s out indefinitely with a quad injury, Orlando simply isn’t as good as the Warriors.
Giannis Antetokounmpo -2.5 Points vs. Nikola Jokic (-110)
In a battle between arguably the league’s best two bigs — and two men who will almost certainly finish second and third in this season’s MVP race — I knew I had to choose some prop involving both of them. The numbers are incredible; in his 45 games, the Greek Freak has scored 30 or more 28 times, while Jokić has accomplished that feat 21 times in 52 games. They’re fourth (Jokić) and eighth (Antetokounmpo) in effective field goal percentage among 86 players who have appeared in 40 or more games and play at least 30 minutes per game. Scoring might not even be the best parts of their games; Antetokounmpo is an elite rim protector, and Jokić is the best-passing big man the league has ever seen.
I’m going with Antetokounmpo to score more in tonight’s matchup, even if he’s on a slight minutes restriction as he works his way back from a calf strain. Milwaukee’s defense is significantly better than Denver’s, and historically, Antetokounmpo has done a better job at slowing down Jokić than vice versa; the last time he failed to score at least 27 points against the Nuggets came all the way back in 2018. Meanwhile, although Jokić has had five 30-point games against Antetokounmpo, he’s still had two performances of fewer than 20 points even after the start of his MVP-level peak.
Kyrie Irving 35+ Points + Assists (-115)
Charlotte is coming off quite literally the worst three-game stretch in NBA history. In their last three games, the Hornets have been outscored, 399-268, and in two of those games, star LaMelo Ball suited up, shooting just four-for-23 (17.4%) from the field and one-for-11 (9.1%) from deep across that span. Overall, they have lost 13 of their last 15 games, and in that larger sample size, they’ve allowed the ninth-most assists to opposing players, even if their scoring defense has been about average. I wouldn’t bet on Charlotte to lose again by 35 points or more, but it’s clearly worse than the Mavericks, even without any big men.
Meanwhile, Irving has been on a tear in his last five games, and he almost rallied Dallas to beat the Lakers in Luka Dončić’s revenge game. Over his last five games, Irving has averaged 31.8 points and 3.8 assists per game while shooting 43.5% from beyond the arc. He has garnered the eighth-highest usage rate in the league across that span, reaching 35 or more combined points and assists four times. Unless he retreats to the bench early, he should have no problem getting there. It’s not like Ball will be much of a deterrent, even if he plays; this season, opponents have shot 4.0 percentage points better than usual when he is the nearest defender.
New Orleans Pelicans-Phoenix Suns O236.5 Points (-108)
In what has been an absolute disaster of a season in Phoenix, the Suns are just 2-8 in their last 10 games and look destined to miss the Play-In Tournament entirely despite solid seasons from both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. Durant is likely to be dealt in the offseason, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Booker asks out, too. Across its current skid, Phoenix has the league’s worst defensive rating, and the Pelicans (24th) aren’t much better. Sure, four of New Orleans’ last five games have gone under the point total, but the over is still 32-26 in Pelicans games, largely because their defense has been so bad. The recent stretch of low-scoring games can be attributed mostly to San Antonio Spurs point guard De’Aaron Fox, who shot nine-for-33 (27.2%) from the field across two games against them.
Phoenix has given up at least 117 points in every single game in February, including 151 to the Memphis Grizzlies in an overtime thriller on Tuesday night. These two teams face off on back-to-back nights, so a late scratch for either Durant or, more likely, Williamson, could thwart either team’s offense, but barring that, I expect this game to be high-scoring and mostly ugly.
Luka Doncic 10+ Rebounds (+120)
The most impressive part of Dončić’s revenge game Tuesday night was his performance on the boards. Although his shot wasn’t falling, he did what superstars do — find a way to impact the game in other ways. His season-high 15 rebounds were critical in helping the Lakers pull out a 107-99 victory. With that performance, three of his 10 10-rebound games this season have come in his last three, and I like him to extend that streak to four tonight.
For the season, Minnesota has generally been stout on the boards, allowing the 12th-fewest per game, but the man primarily responsible for that interior domination — four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert — has been sidelined for the last four games with a back injury and will miss tonight’s game as well. Without Gobert, the Timberwolves have conceded 46.8 boards per game, the eighth-most in the league. Since joining Los Angeles, Dončić has largely camped out close to the basket on defense, earning 11.8 defensive rebounding chances per game, the ninth-most in the league among players who have appeared in at least five of their team’s last six games.
