The 97th Academy Awards take place this Sunday, March 2. For cinephiles, the Oscars are the culmination of a year-long portfolio of productions. As is the case for every awards show, results will draw praise and outrage alike. While we wait to see which names and titles appear on those winner cards, it’s time for some predictions.
Below, I will pick the 2025 Oscars winners for each major category, while also including who I believe should win the award.
Best Director
Nominees
- Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
- Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
- James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Who Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora
Baker’s ability to tap into elements of an old-fashioned comedy while drawing on deep-seated despair and raw humanity to create this amalgamation of a film will earn him the win, and it’s not undeserved. Respective Directors Guild Awards and Producers Guild Awards wins suggest he’s en route to his first Academy Awards nod.
Who Should Win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
In reality, the person who should win this award wasn’t even nominated. Both Baker and Corbet put together stellar productions, but the fact that Denis Villeneuve isn’t among the eligible contenders is a complete joke. His visual storytelling in Dune: Part Two is second to none and should have been recognized as such. That said, of the actual nominees, I believe both Baker and Corbet are worthy, but I’ll give the slight edge to the man who had a much more difficult path to putting his masterpiece on the screen.
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Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
- Ariana Grande, Wicked
- Monica Barbero, A Complete Unknown
- Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
- Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
- Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
There are plenty of well-documented issues with Emilia Pérez, but Saldaña’s track record with BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards and SAG Awards wins suggests that it’s a virtual certainty she adds an Oscar to her trophy cabinet.
Who Should Win: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Quite frankly, multiple key performances were left out of the eligible nominees this year, specifically Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Nickel Boys. That said, of those on this list, I would give Rossellini the nod. Her character’s ability to operate within the weeds of immensely powerful men in Conclave left a mark, and Rossellini’s subtleties compared to Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci’s prominence made the performance what it was.
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Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
If there’s a “lock” to win any major category, Kieran Culkin is it. Go watch A Real Pain if you haven’t. Just do it and you’ll understand. Culkin is quickly elevating into one of the most dominant actors of this decade.
Who Should Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Ditto.
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Best Actress
Nominees
- Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
- Demi Moore, The Substance
- Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Mikey Madison, Anora
Who Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
I’ve gone back and forth on this award, mostly because of the Academy’s notorious hesitation to reward elite horror films. Madison is also riding high after a BAFTA win. However, virtually everyone who has seen The Substance would agree that Moore’s performance is superior, and her respective SAG and Golden Globes victories have laid out a realistic path to winning this category.
Who Should Win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Give the people what they want! Moore has earned this nod through and through, delivering in every way on such a risky role for someone of her status. Also, shoutout to Fernanda Torres, whose grounded portrayal of Eunice Paiva still stays with me to this day. She won’t win, but her performance deserves to be celebrated.
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Best Actor
Nominees
- Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
- Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
- Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
- Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Who Will Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
It’s starting to look more and more like a coin flip between Brody and Chalamet. The latter is picking up steam after his SAG victory, but it feels like Brody’s consistent narrative dominance for the first few months following The Brutalist’s release will ultimately put him over the top.
Who Should Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
No disrespect to Chalamet, he’ll get his Best Actor Oscar at some point. Brody’s performance is simply superior, standing out as the driving force of a unique tale that required so many variables to “go right” for it to turn into the masterpiece it is. While I fear The Brutalist will have a generally quiet night on March 2, Brody should earn this award.
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Best Picture
Nominees
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
- Wicked
What Will Win: Anora
We’ve seen a remarkable surge from Conclave as of late, which seems… odd. The film is strong, but not on the level of many other contenders in this category, in my opinion. Meanwhile, Anora has everything going for it. While the other true major competitor — The Brutalist — is a long, gloomy film, Sean Baker’s project brings an upbeat tone with moments of brilliant sincereness along with a stellar lead performance by Mikey Madison. Anora’s late surge will push it over the top.
What Should Win: Dune: Part Two
I. do. not. know. what. voters. are. thinking.
From every indication across the medley of awards shows, Dune: Part Two has been completely overlooked, and I just don’t understand why. Denis Villeneuve’s fantasy sci-fi epic stands among the greatest films ever produced in its genre. It’s a visual masterpiece that delivers on every single aspect of the story that was set up in Dune, with elite performances from Timothée Chalamet, Austin Butler, Rebecca Ferguson, Zendaya, Javier Bardem and more. Anora and The Brutalist are great films. Dune: Part Two is a generational production. It won’t win this award, but there is no doubt in my mind that it should.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
