The final Tuesday in February presents an under-the-radar slate of games with opportunities galore.
In an effort to be both accountable and transparent, I have to report that my first two ever published picks were losers last week. Nebraska (17-point loss) was never even close to coming home; Florida State (won by 8) did everything but cover the 8.5-point spread hosting Miami. Hey, I never promised a 100% hit rate, and there will be plenty more bumps in the road to betting glory. But this was an early wake up call. It was back to the drawing board exhausting all resources necessary to give the best guidance in the business.
Without further adieu, here are two picks for Tuesday night’s action.
Providence vs. Marquette
These two squads are stumbling down the stretch of the Big East regular season, both in search of positive momentum. Providence (12-15 overall, 6-10 in Big East) has seen its entire season fall flat, while Marquette’s phenomenal 18-3 start has fizzled out with four losses in their following six games. The Golden Eagles, currently projected as a five-seed in the NCAA Tournament per Bracket Matrix, should look to take care of business in emphatic fashion in Milwaukee with Providence just hoping to play spoiler.
On paper, this is an extremely bad matchup for the Friars. That fact is no better substantiated than by Marquette’s 28-point thrashing of Providence at the Amica Mutual Pavilion (formally, but unfortunately no longer, “The Dunk”) back on New Year’s Eve. Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles turned the Friars over 24 times in the beatdown, and turnovers could yet again turn a competitive game ugly in the rematch. Providence ranks 279th nationally in offensive turnover rate (18.8%) and 350th in forcing them (out of 364 total Division I teams). Meanwhile, Marquette’s offense takes care of the ball (sixth in the country) and its defense forces turnovers at a 22.5% clip (ninth nationally per KenPom).
If Big East POY candidate Kam Jones can find his rhythm (he had 18 points & 10 assists in the first matchup) and the turnover differential is drastic, expect Marquette to roll.
The Pick: Marquette -13.5 (-102)
Baylor vs. Cincinnati
A Big 12 clash between two evenly matched, bubble-hovering teams? Sign me up!
As of right now, the Baylor Bears appear to be in the Big Dance (final nine-seed according to Bracket Matrix) with Cincinnati on the outside looking in (seventh in the “Other At-Larges” section). However, nothing is yet set in stone, and both of these clubs can either gain or lose ground with the Committee after tonight’s bout.
Settling on either end of the spread, with Cincy currently a 2.5-point favorite, feels like a pure coinflip. Scott Drew’s Baylor is coming off back-to-back losses and is looking to avoid its first three-game losing streak of the season. But the crowd at Fifth Thrid Arena should be rocking, and Coach Wes Miller knows a win in this spot will do wonders for his Bearcats’ odds to go dancing.
I expect a lower scoring affair here. Even with Baylor’s potent offense, both these teams play at a slower pace that has only stagnated more as the season has progressed. According to Bart Torvik’s adjusted tempo, Baylor plays at the 316th fastest pace nationally (14th in the Big 12), with Cincy not much faster at 296th (13th in the Big 12) since the start of 2025. Additionally, both teams protect the ball well, and the Bearcats’ inability to either get to the line (355th nationally) or shoot free throws once there (66.7% as a team; 334th in the country per KenPom) should contribute to the low total.
As long as freshman sensation & future lottery pick VJ Edgecombe doesn’t catch fire, this should be a tight, moderate-scoring battle.
The Pick: Under 137.5 (-115)
