After another 2-0 performance on article plays last night, we’re sitting at a perfect 4-0 for the week. Personally, I like having good vibes going into the weekend, so how about we do it all over again tonight? Sound good? I thought so.
Let’s dive into a huge slate on the diamond.
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New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Justin Verlander to Record a Win (+150)
Understandably, there isn’t a lot of value in simply betting the Astros on the moneyline this evening, so we’ll have to get creative. That means backing Verlander to get a win in this tilt, which oddly enough, is less about the perennial All-Star and more about the support he’ll surely be given. Still, it’s probably worth pointing out that Verlander hasn’t surrendered an earned run in either of his last two starts. You might also be interested to know that the RHP owns a 2.05 ERA and is holding opponents to a .263 wOBA dating back to July 17. Breaking news: Justin Verlander is one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball.
However, even Verlander can’t get a victory without having a lead. That’s where Houston’s red-hot bats come into the picture. The Astros are starting to feel like the Astros again. Not just because Michael Brantley is back from a lengthy stay on the IL, but because the entire lineup is mashing at the moment. Over the last 14 days, Houston is hitting .310 with a 144 wRC+. Across their current five-game winning streak, the Astros are averaging a jaw-dropping 10.4 runs per contest. I doubt Carlos Rodon and his 6.79 FIP are going to be the force that slows Houston down.
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Rodon hasn’t looked like himself throughout 2023 and nowhere is that more apparent statistically than with strikeouts. After posting a 34.6% strikeout rate in 2021 and a 33.4% rate in 2022, Rodon enters tonight’s matchup with the Astros in possession of just a 20.0% mark. He’s managed five strikeouts or fewer in six of his eight starts this season, including a start versus Houston in early August where the LHP surrendered five earned runs in only 2.2 innings. Meanwhile, the Astros have baseball’s lowest strikeout rate across the past two weeks (15.7%), along with the AL’s highest contact rate within that same span (81.5%). Rodon is not clearing this prop.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers ML (+110)
I know it’s the Braves, but how often do you get the chance to back the Dodgers as home underdogs? Three times so far in 2023 is the answer. Four times if you count tonight. I just can’t resist. Los Angeles is 20-4 in its last 24 games. Somehow, even after a slow start and all the bullpen issues you could possibly imagine, the team is on pace for 100 wins yet again. Who am I to go against that kind of track record?
The key to the Dodgers winning on Friday will be Julio Urias. It’s been a less than stellar campaign for the lefty, but Urias rebounded nicely in August, posting a 2.90 ERA with a 12.00 K/BB ratio across 31.0 innings in the month. Urias has also always been at his best pitching at Dodger Stadium, and this has been no different in 2023, where the southpaw has registered a 2.30 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. For the sake of comparison, Urias owns a a dreadful 7.07 ERA on the road this season. Add in a lineup that’s posted a 139 wRC+ the past 14 days, and you’ve got the recipe for an upset.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
