With just nine days until March and 29 until the opening Round of 64 games, the stakes of the college basketball regular season are peaking. Elite teams (most of which seem to reside in the SEC) jockey for optimal seed positioning, while good, yet inconsistent squads on the bubble try to find their footing in order to secure a bid to the Big Dance. Wednesday offers up 47 total Division I games, plenty of which present intriguing matchups and consequential results. Feel overwhelmed? No need, below are my two most confident picks for February 19th.
Nebraska (-1.5) vs. Penn State
Taking a short road favorite, especially in the Big Ten, can be a nerve-racking venture, but Nebraska looks more than capable of leaving University Park with a win (by more than one, of course) on Wednesday. The Cornhuskers, a team not quite clear of the NCAA Tournament bubble, have much more to play for than Penn State despite the Nittany Lions’ urgency to end a seven-game losing streak. Penn State ranks last in the Big Ten by a decent margin according to Bart Torvik’s power rating since the start of the new year, so any sign of encouraging play beyond the box score is nonexistent.
There are plenty of areas of concern from Penn State’s perspective that lead me to side with Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers. Free throw discrepancy will likely play a huge role in the outcome, as both offenses are reliant on getting to the charity stripe per KenPom. Nebraska is first in the conference in opponent free throw attempts relative to field goal attempts (just 25.4% according to KenPom), while Penn State ranks ninth in the same statistic. Like free throws, turnovers may also plague the Nittany Lions; the team’s 18.3% turnover rate (16th in the Big Ten) and 10.7% steal rate (last) is no recipe for success. Also, who exactly is going to cover Brice Williams? The 6’7 forward is averaging 19.5 points per game and has scored 20+ in six straight games. Simply put, I am not sure PSU has a good matchup for Williams on the defensive end.
If the Cornhuskers control the pace, win the free throw battle and minimize turnovers, you can feel good about them coming away with a multi-point victory.
Miami (FL) at Florida State (-8.5)
In continuing to pick on lowly, downtrodden programs, I turn to the Miami Hurricanes. The 6-19 ‘Canes are in the midst of a nightmare season highlighted by longtime head coach Jim Larranaga abruptly retiring the day after Christmas. Last place Miami sports one of the very worst defenses in the entire country: 339th per KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, including a second-to-last mark in the nation (363rd) in opponent effective field goal percentage since Larranaga called it quits December 26, per Bart Torvik. It’s safe to say it appears Miami is simply playing out the string.
The same can’t be said, at least in my mind, about Florida State. The FSU program is also in a precarious coaching situation, as 76 year-old Leonard Hamilton announced two weeks ago that this season in Tallahassee will be his last. The Seminoles should show some excessive fight and resolve for their lame duck coach in his final intra-state conference contest, especially after a 72-46 shellacking against a good Clemson team on Saturday. Florida State certainly doesn’t shoot the three-ball well, but Miami’s putrid three-point defense (allowing opponents to make 39.1% of attempts per KenPom) should allow for Jamir Watkins and company to knock down more than a handful. Expect the Seminoles to win, and win big, in Coach Hamilton’s final game against the Hurricanes.
