Sunday marks the final day of the official first half of the MLB regular season. The 30 teams will head into a short recess next week for the All-Star break, and it’s fair to say there have been plenty of surprises. There have been some massive disappointments and equally massive shocking performances, which should set up an exciting finish.
All 30 teams will be in action on Sunday. Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s slate.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins:
The Pick: Marlins ML (-125)
The Marlins have been one of the biggest surprises from the first half of the MLB season. They currently lead the high-priced Mets and Phillies in the NL East standings, checking in at 13 games over .500. Their Pythagorean win expectation isn’t nearly as good – they’ve had incredible luck in one-run games – but they’re in a good position for a return trip to the postseason.
One of the biggest reasons for their success has been the growth of their young pitchers. That includes Jesús Luzardo, who will get the ball on Sunday. The left-hander has always had immense talent, checking in as one of the top prospects in baseball, but struggled for years to put it all together. He finally broke out in 2022, and he followed that up with another strong campaign in 2023. He’s pitched to a 3.32 ERA, a 3.22 FIP, and a 10.49 K/9 through 18 starts.
Luzardo should keep rolling vs. the Phillies. They’ve struggled against left-handers this season, ranking 21st in wRC+, and they also have the sixth-highest strikeout rate. The Phillies are also going to be without Bryce Harper after exiting Saturday’s game, making their lineup even more vulnerable.
The Phillies will counter one of their top starters in Aaron Nola, but he hasn’t been as good as usual this season. He owns just a 4.30 ERA, so I give the Marlins a clear edge in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants:
The Pick: Rockies ML (+225)
Let’s see if we can nail a big underdog to end the first half of the year. The Rockies are not a team that typically garners attention outside of Coors Field, and they’re going to have their hands full with Logan Webb. Webb is one of the more underrated starters in baseball, but he’s not exactly unhittable. He has a 3.71 xERA this season, which is a good mark but far from elite.
The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound, who is one of their best starters. His numbers this season aren’t spectacular, but he’s historically been a reliable option outside the thin Rocky Mountain air. He owns a career road ERA of 3.97, so he’s capable of getting outs.
Freeland is also a left-hander, and the Giants have been mediocre in that split this season. They own the fifth-highest strikeout rate, and they rank 24th in wRC+. The Rockies’ offense is far from a juggernaut, but they’ll at least be on the positive side of their splits vs. Webb.
The sharps also seem to like the Rockies in this spot, garnering 30% of the moneyline dollars on just 17% of the bets.
New York Mets at San Diego Padres:
The Pick: Under 8.0 runs (-115)
The first half of the MLB season will wrap up with two of the biggest disappointments. The Mets and Padres both entered the year with World Series aspirations, but at this point, both teams would be happy to squeak into the Wild Card. Both teams sit at 42-47 for the year, putting them 6.5 games behind the Phillies for the final Wild Card spot.
That said, both teams will have quality pitchers on the mound on Sunday. The Mets will turn to Max Scherzer, who has pitched to a 3.43 xERA en route to an 8-2 record. His traditional ERA represents a massive decline from his mark in 2022, and while he may not be the same ace pitcher he was in his prime, he’s still an excellent MLB starter.
The Padres will hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is arguably even better. He owns a 3.56 ERA and a 2.96 xERA this season, and he mowed down the Mets in the Wild Card series last year.
Both of these offenses have shown some life recently and are loaded with star power, but the pitching should have the upper hand in this matchup. The two teams combined for four runs on Saturday, and another low-scoring affair could be in order.
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All odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.