There are nine games on the MLB slate for Monday night. I’ll go over a few bets I like for tonight that you can sweat along with while watching tonight’s MLB action.
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Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: Rangers run line -1.5 +114
The Rangers are expected to start Max Scherzer tonight as they host the Angels. This will be his third start in a Ranger uniform that’s supplied mixed results. After a shaky start against the White Sox, Scherzer (easily) settled in against the Athletics, allowing just one run on three hits through seven innings. Scherzer will now face a very strikeout prone Angels team that has an expected lineup with seven players owning a K% of at least 22%.
The Rangers are also one of the best teams in the league on the run line. They enter today with an overall 70-48 run line record and a league best 38-22 at home is encouraging. They’re also the only team in the league that has covered the run line by an average of 1.1 runs, as every other team has covered by an average no higher than 0.6. In his two starts against the Rangers, Angels starter Reid Detmers has gone 10 innings allowing four runs on 10 hits with five walks and 15 strikeouts. While those numbers are decent, Detmers has really struggled since the All-Star break, allowing 22 runs on 30 hits through just 22 innings.
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Yu Darvish under 17.5 outs recorded +120
I think you can attack this game a couple of ways. The Orioles are a good underdog bet tonight at +120 and I also like taking unders on Darvish. I’m going under 17.5 outs recorded, meaning he needs to be out of this game before completing 6 innings of work. This is usually a number he, as he’s done this in 13 of the 21 starts he’s made. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if this O’s lineup gives him trouble. While his numbers against righties are great, lefties have give him trouble. Overall, he has a .333 wOBA with 9% BB% against them. They jump up at home, where Darvish has a .364 wOBA with a 4.57 FIP and a 1.8 HR/9.
This Orioles lineup can go VERY left-handed heavy. If you look at the expected lineup for tonight, between switch hitters and natural left-handers, they should have seven of them in the lineup. Darvish may not see a righty in the lineup until they get to the sixth spot in the order. If this lineup is played as I expect, this could be a short night for the Padres starter.
Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
The Pick: Game Total under 4.5 runs through first five innings -125
I don’t think we’ll see a ton of offense to start this game off. The Royals have had a few games this month where they’ve put up some crooked numbers but for the most part, the offense is dead in the water. The Mariners, despite having their nine-game winning streak recently snap, still continue to struggle with men on base.
I have to give Brady Singer some credit. Despite some really bad overall numbers, he’s been solid in the second-half of the season. Through 33.2 innings, he has a 2.94 ERA with a .246 wOBA and a 3.30 FIP. Logan Gilbert, who takes the hill for the Mariners, has been good over that span as well. He boasts a 3.68 ERA with a .303 wOBA and a 3.37 FIP through 29.1 innings himself. With these two offenses being extremely inconsistent, I like the idea of going under five runs in the first half of this game.
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