This week’s PGA event takes us back to San Diego and Torrey Pines for the Genesis Invitational. While this event is usually held over at Riviera CC in Los Angeles, the wildfires forced the event to be moved to Torrey Pines South, the same course that hosted the Farmers Insurance Open just a few weeks ago.
As you may remember, Torrey Pines is one of the hardest courses on the PGA schedule. Here is some of what I wrote about Torrey Pines in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet for the Genesis Invitational, up on DK Network.
“Torrey Pines South is a completely different challenge than what the players will have been exposed to this year. It’s consistently ranked as one of the hardest courses on the PGA TOUR and yields one of the lowest birdie-or-better percentages every season. In 2022, despite relatively calm conditions, it played as the seventh-toughest on the PGA TOUR and +.534 above par. In 2023 and 2024, the winner came home at just 13-under par, the lowest winning score in over four years. Players may be getting bigger and stronger, but Torrey Pines South is still a challenge for the modern pro.
The greens at Torrey South are also some of the toughest on the PGA TOUR. Players who can regularly sink their putts in the 5-10 foot range will have a huge advantage, and it’s no shock that English gained 6.1 strokes putting for the week here in January. Overall, the last four winners of the Farmers) have all now gained over 3.5 strokes putting and over 3.5 strokes on approach for the week at Torrey South as well.”
Despite this course being long, we have seen shorter hitters who can scramble/putt and are generally very accurate with their irons, prosper. This year’s Farmers winner Harris English is a great example as his weakness tends to be off the tee. That’s the same story for 2021 Farmers winner Patrick Reed.
The weather for Thursday looks iffy at best with winds and gusts above 10mph and rain in the forecast. The greens will likely be receptive but wind and rain could also make this tough course even tougher.
Below I’ll give you my best ideas for Thursday’s Pick6 lineups…
Collin Morikawa Less Than 72.5 Strokes
I like Morikawa this week. He’s a great long-iron player who ranks out well on longer courses. He won his first major at a 7,300+ yard Par 70 on the west coast at TPC Harding Park and won at the 7,500+ yard Concession in 2021 as well. His two starts this year have seen him gain over 3.5 strokes on approach on each occasion, and he’s putted well on Poa over his recent short-term form (last 24 rounds = +7.58 strokes).
I’m not bullish on the scoring conditions, but the fact that we are only needing Morikawa to shoot par or better makes him a target for me. Even while losing strokes putting for the week, he still managed to put in four under-par rounds at Pebble in his last start, an event that also featured a little poor weather. I think Morikawa is in for a big week. I don’t have any problem backing him in Round 1 to get off to a decent start.
Lucas Glover More Than 2.5 Birdies or Better
Glover has been a little up and down this season, but he managed a T3 finish at Pebble Beach just two starts ago (also played on Poa greens) and also opened his season with T21 at the Sony Open. Overall, he’s been in good form with his long game and leads this field in strokes-gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds, while also ranking a respectable 22nd in opportunities gained over that same span.
Despite the nice stats, his birdie or better total for Round 1 remains extremely low at 2.5. Birdies are hard to come by Torrey Pines, but Glover has played here plenty and generally outperformed this smaller total on Torrey South over his last couple of appearances (five of his last six Torrey South Rounds have featured 3 or more birdies or better).
Even with the poor weather, backing him to get three or more circles on the scorecard makes sense given his form and experience.
Tommy Fleetwood More Than 11.5 Pars
Fleetwood doesn’t have a ton of experience playing at Torrey Pines, but I do like his form coming in. He’s also someone who loves a tougher US Open setup. The Englishman gained 6.1 strokes ball-striking in his last start at Pebble and is great at playing in poor weather. On an easier course, that might mean he’s a good target to pile up some birdies, but on Torrey South, it should translate to a ton of pars.
At the US Open last July three of his four rounds featured 12 or more pars and while Torrey may not be set up quite to US Open standards, the weather will also help stop the players from getting too many birdie opportunities. I think it’s likely we see more good play from Tommy this week, and it should translate to an opening round with a ton of pars given the setup.
Jordan Spieth More Than 72.5 Strokes
Spieth played great last week in Phoenix, finishing T4 while gaining 6.9 strokes on approach for the week. That said, this week’s event is an entirely different beast and one Spieth may not be ready for just yet. The American is still struggling to find his range with the putter and just two weeks ago lost over 3.0 strokes on the Poa greens at Pebble.
He’s also never played well at Torrey Pines, as he’s missed the cut at the Farmers in four of his seven appearances and has lost strokes putting in five of his six appearances at the course as well. Spieth looks like he’s on the road back, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he took a step back in Round 1 on a course he’s never felt comfortable at.
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