Sometimes, football’s biggest game is determined long before the final whistle blows, if a team has a significant lead and can just run down the clock, pick up a final first down, and kneel out the victory.
For most people, the most exciting games end on game-winning touchdown drives. But to me, there’s nothing more impressive than watching a team navigate downfield with less than a minute left on the clock, eke their way into field goal range, and boot the game-winning kick through the uprights. Game-winning field goal drives on a short clock require surgical precision and mathematical calculation, and it’s so much more doable than a quick touchdown strike.
Will Sunday’s Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles end with a walkoff kick?
Both Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have led their fair share of game-winning drives in their careers, and kickers Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott are both among the best at the position, even if they’ve had down years. So it’s not completely impossible, although the +650 odds are unfriendly.
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In Super Bowl history, there has only been one game-winning field goal with zero seconds left on the clock, which occurred in 2002, when New England Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri nailed a 48-yarder to notch a dramatic, 20-17 victory over the St. Louis Rams. Coincidentally, the game was also played in New Orleans, just as Sunday’s contest will be.
There have also been three other instances where the Super Bowl has been decided by a late field goal on the second-to-last play of the game. In Super Bowl V, Baltimore Colts kicker Jim O’Brien made a 32-yarder with five seconds remaining to put the Colts in the lead for the first time. Vinatieri also made a 41-yarder against the Carolina Panthers in 2004. Most recently, Butker nailed a 27-yard field goal with eight seconds left to effectively finish off the Eagles in a 38-35 thriller two years ago.
With just one walkoff game-winning field goal in the first 58 editions of the Super Bowl, the odds should be a lot longer than they are. But the true chances are increasing. In the first 14 Super Bowls, the average margin was 13 points, which increased to 20.53 in the next 15. There were only two Super Bowls out of the first 29 that were decided by a field goal margin or less. Then, the 15 Super Bowls after that were decided by an average margin of just 10.67 points, with four games decided by a field goal or less. The last 14 Super Bowls have been the most competitive (9.00), with all but five decided by a touchdown or less and each of the last three decided by exactly three points.
This season, Kansas City hit three walkoff field goals, although two of them occurred when Butker was on injured reserve with a knee injury. In Week 2, Butker iced the Cincinnati Bengals with a 51-yarder, Spencer Shrader downed the Carolina Panthers in Week 12 with a 31-yarder, and Matthew Wright did the same against the Los Angeles Chargers two weeks later. The Chiefs are an NFL-record 12-0 in one-score games this season, including the regular season and postseason.
Meanwhile, Elliott hasn’t hit a walkoff kick this year, but only two of Philadelphia’s games have even been decided by three points or less. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles are 15-1, with an average winning margin of 14.0 points (including a three-point loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 16).
