The long grind of the NFL season is nearly over as the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles will square off in Super Bowl LIX.
Kansas City will be looking to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The Chiefs’ first Super Bowl victory in this streak occurred against the Eagles two seasons ago. This year’s version has a different identity with Kansas City leaning on its defense more than has typically been the case. The Chiefs were the only playoff team without having a player with over 1,000 yards receiving or rushing yards and the first team in NFL history to win 15 or more games without having a player log over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Even still, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are as great of a duo at the top as you will find. There are plenty of reasons to be confident.
Philadelphia will take its second chance at the Chiefs on the biggest stage with an improved roster. Saquon Barkley will be looked at as a huge reason for optimism and this game will conclude one of the greatest seasons in history recorded by a running back. Barkley became one of nine running backs to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season and is just 30 yards shy of breaking the all-time rushing record for regular season and playoffs combined. In addition, the Eagles have upgraded their secondary and will have an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
The Chiefs enter this game as 1.5-point favorites and -115 on the moneyline. The Eagles are -105 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 48.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for this Super Bowl rematch.
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (-120)
The dual-threat ability of Jalen Hurts is the foundation of everything the Eagles do in the red zone. Hurts has recorded 55 rushing touchdowns in the regular season in his career and has only started 66 total games. The “tush-push” opportunities steal the headlines and count the same, but Hurts is also plenty capable of using his legs in a read-option or a designed run.
During the regular season, Hurts finished tied for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns in the league with 14. He has carried this into the postseason reaching the end zone four times across their first three playoff games. Philadelphia is a run-first football team and its quarterback is a key part of making this possible. Across the regular season and playoffs combined, Hurts has recorded a rushing touchdown in 12 of the 18 games he has played. This includes two games with three rushing touchdowns and two games with two rushing touchdowns.
Flashback to the last Super Bowl matchup between these two teams and Hurts found the end zone three times on the ground. Whether it is in quarterback sneak opportunities or a 44-yard dash which he broke against the Rams this playoff run, count on Hurts finding his way into the end zone. Getting -120 odds for a top red zone option is great value. Expect Hurts to see plenty of opportunities with his legs whenever the Eagles are within scoring distance.
Nolan Smith Jr. Over 0.25 Sacks (-116)
Players like Mahomes, Barkley, and Travis Kelce will dominate the headlines, but the battle at the line of scrimmage will be just as much of a factor for who will be crowned victorious. The Eagles finished the season ranked second in points allowed and the fewest overall yards conceded. They allowed the second fewest rushing touchdowns, sixth fewest passing touchdowns and recorded the 14th most sacks. The Eagles tallied two sacks against the Packers, five sacks against the Rams and three sacks against the Commanders in their three playoff games this year. Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times this season and has been taken down five times across the opening two playoff games.
Nolan Smith Jr. has been a huge part of the defensive effort and is amid his full breakout. After being selected 30th overall in last year’s draft, Smith was held to one sack his rookie year but tallied 6.5 this season. He has built off this in the postseason recording four sacks across the first three playoff games with at least one sack in each game. Smith also has a favorable matchup as he will likely be matched up with Chiefs tackle Jawaan Taylor. The 27-year-old finished the season ranked 62nd out of 81 qualifying tackles. He allowed a team-high 41 pressures and seven sacks during the regular season. There are only seven tackles in the NFL that have given up more pressures than Taylor this season.
With Smith putting it all together and set to face a weak spot in the Chiefs’ offensive line, I like his chances of taking down Mahomes. Even with Brandon Graham returning, expect this to be more of an emotional boost for this Eagles team than a box score impact. Graham has not played since Nov. 24 and Smith has logged at least 80 percent of the snaps in all three playoff games. Expect his burst off the line to prove problematic and for Smith to record over 0.25 sacks in this Super Bowl matchup.
Travis Kelce Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
It was an uncharacteristic season for Kelce as he was held to a career-low 823 receiving yards and just three touchdowns. While some of this has to do with the 35-year-old slowing down in the later stages of his career, the priority was preserving him for this playoff run. This was proven by the future Hall of Famer breaking free for 117 receiving yards and a touchdown in the opening playoff game against the Texans. There won’t be any limitations with all the stakes on the line in this game.
While he was held to just 19 receiving yards last week against the Bills, this is a more favorable matchup for Kelce. Philadelphia did a nice job rebuilding its secondary and there is not a clear weakness in their defense. But if you had to pick a weak spot in Philadelphia’s defensive unit, it would be the linebacker position. This issue was maximized following the injury to Nakobe Dean in the opening round of the playoffs. In stepped Oren Burks, who filled a similar role for the 49ers last year stepping in when Dre Greenlaw got injured. Burks attempted to match up with Kelce in last year’s Super Bowl and the star tight end tallied nine receptions for 93 yards.
With unfavorable matchups at the wide receiver positions, expect Kelce to be active throughout this game. He has recorded 70+ receiving yards in 14 of the past 15 playoff games with last week being the lone exception to this. This is far from the most talented receiving group that Mahomes has possessed, so expect him to rely on Kelce as a safety blanket. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is more than comfortable playing a bend-but-don’t-break strategy and keeping receivers in front of them. Tight end Zach Ertz tallied 11 receptions for 104 receiving yards in the NFC Championship game against the Eagles. Expect Kelce to be used in a similar fashion and for him to record over 61.5 receiving yards.
Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 24.5 Yards (-120)
One of the biggest reasons for optimism for the Philadelphia Eagles is having Barkley on their side. The prized offseason addition has been everything the Eagles could have hoped for and more this season. His rushing prop line is set at over/under 111.5 yards for this game and Barkley holds -195 odds of an anytime touchdown on DraftKings Sportsbook.
While Barkley is capable of cruising past his rushing total, expect the full priority of the Chiefs defense to be stopping the star running back. Kansas City has been better defending the rush compared to the pass this season and finished the year allowing the eighth fewest rushing yards. While it is impossible to keep Barkley fully contained, so much of his rushing production is due to breaking free for long rushes. With this in mind, I like the odds of Barkley breaking free and rushing for over 24.5 yards in one of his attempts.
Looking at the regular season and playoffs combined, Barkley has recorded a longest rush of over 24.5 yards in 10 of the 19 games he has played. This includes the past two playoff games. Philadelphia is sure to continue putting the ball in his hands with no other matchups to save his legs for. The Eagles’ offensive line is incredibly effective at winning at the line of scrimmage and paving the way for Barkley to get to the second level. He has plenty of talent to take things from there and is extremely effective at making guys miss in open space. Expect this to occur at least once in this game and for Barkley to have a game-changing run of over 24.5 yards.
