It is a star-studded Super Bowl matchup with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and plenty more worthy of headlines. However, both these defenses have a place in the conversation among the NFL’s best and are capable of flipping this game on its head.
Kansas City finished the regular season ranked fourth in opponent points allowed and ninth in yards conceded. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the better football minds in the sport and his creative style of blitzes will be something to keep an eye on in this game.
However, the Philadelphia Eagles have had even greater success this season. They finished the regular season ranked second in points allowed and conceded the fewest yards given up. They ranked second in rushing touchdowns allowed, sixth in passing touchdowns given up and 14th in sacks tallied as a team.
This pass rush will be especially vital in this game as giving Patrick Mahomes additional time in the pocket is a recipe for disaster from Philadelphia’s perspective. So far in the playoffs, the Eagles tallied two sacks against the Packers, five sacks against the Rams and three sacks against the Washington Commanders. In comparison, Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times during the regular season and has been taken down five times across the opening two playoff games.
Nolan Smith has been a significant storyline surrounding this Eagles defense and I like his chances of getting to Mahomes in this Super Bowl matchup. The Georgia product was selected with the 30th overall pick in the 2023 draft and has been a bit of a project for his first two years in the league. He was held to just 1.0 total sack his rookie season but tallied 6.5 this regular season. Smith has taken a further stride forward these playoffs, recording 4.0 total sacks with at least one coming in each game. He has put all his physical skills together and catapulted to Philadelphia’s top edge rusher. His quick burst off the line is difficult for any tackle to keep up with and he has been effective in collapsing the pocket on several plays he has not received statistical credit.
Looking at the matchup, Smith is expected to be lined up with Chiefs right tackle Jawaan Taylor. He finished the season ranked 62nd out of 81 qualified tackled on PFF as Taylor allowed a team-high 41 pressures and seven sacks during the regular season. There are only seven tackles in the NFL that have given up more pressures than Taylor on the season.
While Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is creative in generating the blitz, Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio does not blitz often and instead relies on the front four to generate its own pressure. Fangio believes in keeping the game in front of his secondary and maintains not giving up the big play is the biggest priority. This has been effective to this point so don’t expect the game plan to change with the Super Bowl on the line.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the over/under for Nolan Smith for sacks is set at 0.25 with the under favored at -124 odds. He also holds +107 odds of tallying a full sack.
With Smith proving to be the Eagles’ top pass-rushing defender and matching up against the weak spot in the Chiefs’ offensive line, I like his chances of producing a sack. Smith’s 4.0 sacks in this playoff run are already tied for second all-time in Eagles franchise history for postseason sacks. The leader of this is Brandon Graham, who appears set to make his return for this matchup after suffering a torn triceps in Week 11. Graham holds the Eagles record for postseason sacks with 5.5 across his 11 games and tallied 3.5 sacks during the 10 regular-season games he played this season.
While Graham’s presence will provide an emotional boost for this Eagles team, expect Smith to maintain his spot as the top pass-rushing option. Graham has not played since Nov. 24th and the production of Smith speaks for itself. Smith has logged 80% of the snaps or greater in all three playoff games and don’t expect that to change in this matchup.
I like Smith to record a full sack at +107 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. His combination of strong play and a favorable matchup against the weak spot on the Chiefs’ offensive line has the makings of a strong game.
You also can tail me in betting this in the DK Network betting group here.
