For the third year in a row, there the Kansas City Chiefs are, just 60 minutes away from another Lombardi Trophy. And for the second time in three years, so are the Philadelphia Eagles, who narrowly dropped Super Bowl LVII to the Chiefs two seasons ago, 38-35.
During that game, Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown hauled in six catches for 96 yards and a score, and he’ll be hoping for another big performance today. This season, Philadelphia operated the league’s most run-heavy offense, so Brown’s individual stats were slightly down, but he still put up 67 catches for 1,079 yards and seven scores, forming a potent 1-2 punch with teammate DeVonta Smith.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Eagles are 1.5-point underdogs, and the point total is set at 48.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bets centered around Brown.
Best A.J. Brown Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
A.J. Brown U71.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Philadelphia’s game plan, first and foremost, will be to run the ball with Saquon Barkley, who had a ridiculous regular season and has followed it up with an even better postseason. Sure, the three rushing defenses Barkley has faced in the playoffs — the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, and Washington Commanders — don’t quite have the playmakers that Kansas City does, but Barkley will get his. The only way Jalen Hurts is aggressive as a passer is if the Chiefs jump out to a big lead and force him to throw, and the Eagles’ defense is too good for that to happen.
That leaves a limited number of targets for Hurts’ receiving corps. The fact that Kansas City allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends doesn’t help Brown, because Dallas Goedert should get see plenty of action. Plus, of Philadelphia’s receiving tandem, I somewhat prefer Smith, who will likely split time between the outside and the slot, facing more action against nickel back Chamarri Conner, who has allowed a 118.7 passer rating in coverage during the postseason, and cornerback Trent McDuffie, whose 13 targets have led to a 118.1 passer rating. Instead, Brown is projected to line up against Jaylen Watson on a plurality of snaps. Watson has been targeted just five times in the postseason, holding opposing passers to a 49.6 passer rating.
A.J. Brown Longest Reception O25.5 Yards (-120)
During the regular season, head coach Nick Sirianni employed Brown primarily as Hurts’ deep threat, as his average depth of target (12.1 yards) was far deeper than Smith’s (9.1). His 11.1 yards per target ranked sixth among 249 qualified receivers, and his 5.3 yards after catch per reception ranked 99th. During the NFC Championship Game, Brown was targeted for 15 or more air yards three times, hauling in two catches, including a 30-yard gain along the left sideline. His longest catch has gone for 26 or more yards in seven of his 13 regular season games and one of the Eagles’ first three playoff games.
The Chiefs’ secondary is pretty good overall, and Watson has been especially solid in the postseason, but Kansas City was pretty susceptible to big plays this season, conceding 52 completions of at least 20 yards, the ninth-most in the NFL, despite allowing just the 11th-most receptions overall. Brown struggles to get separation sometimes, but he is excellent as a runner, gaining 3.0 yards more than expected after the catch per reception, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. During the regular season, Watson allowed 6.0 yards per reception after the catch, so he’s beatable despite his excellent form. Expect Brown’s big reception to come against Watson instead of McDuffie, who has been excellent at dragging down receivers once they have completed the catch.
