The Pebble Beach Pro Am is an 80-man signature field event. We have eight of the world’s top 10 players in the field this week (via the OWGR) including world number one Scottie Scheffler and number two Rory McIlroy. This event is another multi-course tournament, where the players will rotate venues on Thursday and Friday (during the Pro Am portion of the event). On the weekend, the pros will take on Pebble Beach twice, on Saturday and Sunday.
Here is some of what I wrote about the course in this week’s PGA Cheat Sheet for Pebble Beach up on DK Network.
“As mentioned above, golfers will rotate between just two courses this year, playing each course once prior to the weekend when the entire pro field will move to Pebble Beach. Even though Spyglass Hill can often play slightly tougher than Pebble Beach, it is more wind-protected, so having your player there on a windy day isn’t such a bad thing. In 2020, the weather really made things tough as Spyglass played to a 72.876 scoring average and ranked as the fifth-toughest course on the PGA TOUR, while Pebble Beach also played tough at a 72.55 scoring average and was the eighth-toughest venue on the PGA TOUR out of 41. These courses are short but when the wind is up the smaller greens in play make them extremely difficult.
As far as layout goes, the host course (Pebble Beach) is a traditional par 72 with four par 5s and four par 3s. Three of the four par 5s often play under 550 yards in length and only one par 3 is over 200 yards. Even though there are some longer par 4s, length off the tee isn’t all that essential this week and the average driving distance for the field is generally 10-15 yards lower this week than the average PGA TOUR event. Many of the holes force players to club down off the tee (either due to doglegs or shorter fairways) and it’s worth noting that three of the past seven winners of this event have lost strokes off the tee for the week; including the 2023 winner Justin Rose (-0.4 OTT in 2023).”
The weather for Thursday looks solid with very little wind. It’s likely we will see slightly better scoring on Pebble Beach on Day 1, although I wouldn’t expect the difference to be drastic.
We’ll try to sort through all that chaos and find the best edges this week below.
Patrick Cantlay Less Than 69.5 Strokes
In some respects, Cantlay almost seems too obvious this week. The American loves these shorter setups where he can rely on his precise short iron play and doesn’t have to worry as much about being a little off-center from the tee box. He has also dominated Pebble Beach over his career, having shot 65 or better in two of his last five competitive rounds on the course.
While he’s still struggling to dial in his irons, the rest of Cantlay’s game looks to be in fine form. He’s gained over 1.5 strokes off the tee in both his two 2025 starts and has also found his rhythm on the greens, gaining over 2.0 strokes at TPC stadium and the Plantation Course in Maui. When Cantlay is clicking with his putter, he’s generally one of the best golfers in the game, and with one of his favorite setups on the docket for Thursday (he starts on Pebble) I see no reason not to trust him to shoot us a low round and cash the Less Than on this 69.5 stroke total.
Cameron Davis More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Davis is the exact kind of player I like targeting with the More Than on these birdie totals on Pebble Beach this Thursday. He’s an elite birdie-maker who ranks 15th in Opportunities gained and 7th in BoB% over his last 24 rounds of play. He’s also started the season nicely, with two top 20 finishes in three starts, including a T18 effort at the American Express where he gained 6.5 strokes putting.
In general, he tends to dominate on these shorter, more classical designs and has finished T20 and T14 at Pebble Beach in his last two starts at this event. I think the Aussie is a potential dark horse to compete for the win this week and for Round 1, with the weather looking nice, I don’t see any reason why he can’t start strong on the easier Pebble Beach and bag a bunch of birdies.
Sahith Theegala More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Theegala didn’t have the greatest week at Torrey Pines where he finished T52. Still, the American was hovering within three of the lead for parts of the final three rounds, but had a terrible Sunday and closed the week with a round of 80. He’s still gaining on approach and did gain strokes putting for the week on the tougher Poa greens at Torrey, which are similar to what we’ll see at Pebble this week.
Theegala may or may not put it all together this week for a big finish, but where I do think he’ll continue to perform is in the birdie column. He ranked 4th in birdies made last week and ranks 15th in Birdies made over the last 24 rounds. Last year, he made 10 birdies on Pebble between Rounds 2 and 3, and with him starting on the easier Pebble this Thursday I like taking him for five or more birdies made in Round 1.
Russell Henley Less Than 2.5 Bogeys or Worse
I’ll take aim at one more “less than” option for a player starting on Spyglass Hill in Russell Henley. The American started the season well in Hawaii placing 10th in his last start at the Sony Open. He’s an accurate iron player who sets up well for these tighter, shorter courses and has played this event numerous times before.
Henley’s short game has been a big asset to him over the last year or so and while he has trouble competing with the best of the best when the scoring gets low, he’s very good at keeping himself in contention by staying out of trouble. Overall, he ranks 17th in this field in Bogey Avoidance over the last 24 rounds.
He is starting on the tougher course but that fact feels baked in already with the line being set at 2.5. I like trusting him at this level to put together a clean enough round to cash the less than for this total on Thursday.
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