Arguably the best betting week of the European football calendar is here, with Matchweek 8 of the UEFA Champions League on the horizon for tomorrow. With just five points separating eighth and 25th, there is plenty left to be determined in each team’s final 90 minutes of the League Phase.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for the UCL, and Matchweek 8 of the UCL is no exception. Here are my top picks for tomorrow’s football action:
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures, with all 18 games kicking off at 3 p.m. ET:
Celtic at Aston Villa
Atalanta at Barcelona
Sparta Prague at Bayer Leverkusen
Slovan Bratislava at Bayern Munich
Shakhtar Donetsk at Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid at Brest
AC Milan at Dinamo Zagreb
Arsenal at Girona
AS Monaco at Internazionale
Benfica at Juventus
Feyenoord Rotterdam at Lille
Club Brugge at Manchester City
Liverpool at PSV Eindhoven
Atletico Madrid at RB Salzburg
RB Leipzig at SK Sturm Graz
Bologna at Sporting CP
Paris Saint-Germain at VfB Stuttgart
Red Star Belgrade at Young Boys
O2.5 Goals and Aston Villa to Win (+100)
Part of UEFA’s goal in switching from old, group-based format to the new League Phase was to eliminate clunky Matchweek 6 scenarios where teams were already guaranteed to go through and had little to play for. While there are two teams guaranteed to finish in the top eight and nine teams that will surely be eliminated, 25 of the competition’s teams have something to play for. Aston Villa, which currently sits in ninth, and Celtic, currently in 18th, could both make the top eight and not have to compete in the playoff round.
While both of these teams have middling attacks — Celtic is tied for 19th in terms of goals scored, while Villa is joint 23rd — they should be playing hard tomorrow with so much to play for. Villa has a relatively kind matchup in Matchweek 24 of the Premier League on Saturday against Wolves, who are currently in the relegation zone, and Celtic have a 10-point lead in the Scottish Premiership, so both teams should field a full-strength squad tomorrow.
Villa has only allowed four goals throughout the first seven games, thanks to some stellar play from two-time reigning Yashin Trophy winner Emi Martinez, but Celtic has let 10 in. Of the two teams’ attacks, I simply trust Aston Villa’s more, and I think they’ll do enough to pull off the win. Although there have been fewer than three total goals in each of the Villans’ last three games, nine out of its previous 10 games before this stretch saw three or more goals.
Serhou Guirassy Anytime Goalscorer (-105)
The Guinea international earned a big-money move from Stuttgart to Dortmund during the offseason, and while Dortmund have struggled in the Bundesliga, sitting just 11th — seven spots and six points below Guirassy’s former team — he has been pretty solid, lashing home eight Bundesliga goals in 16 matches. He’s also the third-leading scorer in the Champions League so far, scoring seven goals in seven matches, including four penalties. Guirassy has found the back of the net in each of Dortmund’s last three Champions League games.
Like Aston Villa and Celtic, Dortmund still has a lot to play for. BVB sits 14th in the table, having lost two straight matches, and while it is guaranteed to at least make the playoffs, it is just one point outside the top eight. Although it has been knocked out of the DfB-Pokal, Dortmund would surely appreciate not having to play in the playoff stage to focus its energy on climbing back inside the Bundesliga’s top four and ensuring Champions League football for next season. Meanwhile, Shakhtar Donetsk is three points behind Stuttgart for the final playoff place and has a goal difference five goals worse, but with Stuttgart facing a difficult opponent in PSG, Donetsk will not throw in the towel and field its best 11.
Shakhtar Donetsk’s defense has actually been solid; they’ve only allowed 13 goals so far in the competition, fewer than Feyenoord, who currently sit in 11th. But Dortmund have scored more than any team but Barcelona, buoyed by a 7-1 win against Celtic in Matchweek 2, and Guirassy is averaging a ridiculous 1.33 goals (1.08 expected goals) per 90 minutes in the Champions League so far. I back his incredible form to continue for at least another game.
Girona Moneyline (+450)
My shock of the week will go to last season’s most surprising team in La Liga. The Catalonian outfit has already been eliminated from the Champions League, racking up just three points across the first seven Matchweeks and sitting 31st in the table, so they have nothing to play for but their pride. Arsenal, meanwhile, probably won’t field a full-strength 11; although they haven’t quite clinched a top-eight spot, they are three points clear of 9th place and have a goal difference six goals better than the best team on 13 points. The Gunners also have a huge match coming up on Sunday against Manchester City, who are just six points behind them in the Premier League table.
Girona is 12 points behind the final Champions League place in La Liga and are ahead of Real Sociedad for a possible Conference League spot only by goals scored, so they won’t take their match this weekend against 15th-place Las Palmas lightly. Still, Girona has plenty of talented players and can absolutely upset Mikel Arteta’s rotated squad.
Manchester City U2.5 Goals (+110)
Since they are firmly out of the title fight in the Premier League, sitting 12 points behind Liverpool with the Reds having a game in hand, Manchester City probably won’t be taking Sunday’s match against Arsenal as seriously as the Gunners will. Pep Guardiola’s focus should be on making sure City makes it out of the UCL League Phase, which is somehow far from a guarantee after blowing a 2-0 lead to PSG during Matchweek 7. City is currently in 25th and has picked up just one point from its last four UCL matches, but a win against the Belgian side would secure a place in the last 24.
Club Brugge are plenty good and have notched impressive wins against Aston Villa and Sporting CP in the League Phase, plus draws against Juventus and Celtic. They’ll be a difficult out for whoever they face in the playoffs, and Guardiola’s men certainly shouldn’t underestimate them. Brugge have only allowed eight goals, tied for the eighth-fewest in the competition. Unfortunately for them, they’ve only scored six, better than only five other sides.
I think Manchester City is going to win; after all, in their last two Premier League matches, they smashed six past Ipswich Town and three past Chelsea. However, with Brugge’s solid defense and lackluster attack, I don’t think it’ll take more than two goals to get the job done. The Belgians have only conceded three or more goals five times in all competitions so far this season.
Paris Saint-Germain and Stuttgart to Draw (+150)
PSG and Stuttgart are in 22nd and 24th in the table, and each has won their previous two matches while losing the two before that. PSG sits atop Ligue 1, while Stuttgart is fourth in the Bundesliga. Both teams would advance to the UCL knockout stages with a draw, and Stuttgart especially might find it difficult to qualify with a loss.
Match-fixing is illegal, of course, but with both teams relatively unlikely to climb into the top half of the table, there’s no reason why either of them will fight hard for all three points, especially if they’re still knotted up in the second half. Assuredly, neither team wants to help Manchester City qualify for the knockout stages, and they’re the only team with a real chance of jumping into the top 24. With a loss, either Stuttgart or PSG can be leapfrogged both by City and Dinamo Zagreb, although the Croatians have a difficult match against red-hot AC Milan. Neither team wants to take that chance.
