Championship Sunday is here, and we have a couple of terrific matchups with trips to the Super Bowl on the line. Let’s breakdown some betting angles for Bills at Chiefs below.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
I know everyone seems to be rooting for and/or betting on the Bills this weekend, but it’s Kansas City for me. The Bills got the best of the Chiefs in the regular season in Buffalo, and it was due to rare mistakes by Mahomes, who threw a pair of interceptions. A big part of this handicap is that Mahomes will play mistake-free football on Sunday night. But another big piece is trusting the Chiefs to make plays on defense.
The Chiefs boast a top-three scoring defense this season, allowing just 18.1 points at home. That number is just slightly improved from their road numbers, overall playing pretty consistently. While the Bills do rank top-10 in points allowed, this is where home field advantage might come into play. Buffalo ranks just above the bottom-third of the league in scoring defense on the road, giving up over 25 point per.
The Bills have a slightly above average run defense, but if Mahomes can make plays through the air, that could ultimately be the difference in this one. Buffalo’s pass defense can be had, as only Tampa Bay allowed more passing yards in road games this season. The bottom line is that I don’t feel like I’m betting Mahomes over Josh Allen in this one, I feel like I’m backing Kansas City’s defense at home over Buffalo’s defense on the road. And hey, if we need Mahomes to make a play for us in the end, then I still like where we’re at.
The Play: Chiefs ML (-125) – 3-units
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
