GPPs are not won by using all the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” NFL names your dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about––not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea: lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about, but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into our DFS and Millionaire Maker Picks for the Conference Championship Round.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st, TD Throne Eligible]
Top DFS Stack
Core Stack: Bills vs. Chiefs
Jsoh Allen ($7,500) – Khalil Shakir ($5,700)/Amari Cooper ($4,100) – Dalton Kincaid ($3,600) – Kareem Hunt ($5,400) – Travis Kelce ($6,000)
If you’re building out one stack this week for the Millionaire Maker or a higher stakes GPP I think you have to rely on the Chiefs-Bills to produce better fantasy stats. Its game total of 48.5 is a point higher than the Eagles-Commanders and it’s got the second-highest-rated offense (via EPA per play) in the league in Buffalo.
Josh Allen should be the highest-owned QB on the slate as well but that wouldn’t necessarily concern me that much from a build standpoint. It’s very easy to get creative with an Allen stack thanks to the fact they don’t have a dominant number one receiver and so many options they rotate through in the passing game. That said, I do think contest selection matters somewhat here as well. For higher stakes, I would be fine starting with Allen-Khalil Shakir, who was the only Bills WR to see more than two targets last week and has excelled in the playoffs thus far converting on 12 of 13 targets.
Shakir gave the Chiefs plenty of problems in Week 11, going for eight catches and 70 yards, and has the kind of after-the-catch ability to break a long TD which could flip the slate for DFS. The only issue I have with an Allen/Shakir start is that it will likely be the most popular Bills stack in the Milly Maker, where game theory and uniqueness is a huge part of any contest on a two-game slate. For me, I would probably consider pivoting off Shakir in that contest given how big it is, and going with what is likely to be a very low-owned Amari Cooper instead. Cooper won’t get the same targeting (most likely) but if he breaks for a long score you’ll have incredible leverage over the Shakir lineups.
My other target for the Bills in this spot would TE Dalton Kincaid, who should have lower ownership across the industry just thanks to him being the clear number four TE of the two games. Still, Kincaid is fully capable of blowing up in this spot. The Chiefs allowed the second-most receptions per game to opposing TEs and Kincaid went for 5+ catches in both his games vs. the Chiefs last season. The other reason I like Kincaid in this game? It gives us a chance to build a unique two-TE lineup using Travis Kelce in our flex and fading the two TEs from WAS-PHI, who should both carry decent ownership.
Kelce will obviously be popular, and likely the most popular play from the Chiefs. However, pairing him with the lowest-owned starting TE will also ensure that you are keeping your ownership levels down AND creating a much more unique lineup, that is less likely to be duplicated.
Finally, if we’re playing for Josh Allen to potentially drop back 30-plus times (and hopefully push for 300 yards passing) then coming back with Kareem Hunt—who has outcarried Isiah Pacheco four games running now—would be my other core play if building around this game.
Hunt has been effective all season and has taken all of the inside the five carries for the Chiefs over their last four games. He would not only benefit from any game script where the Bills were trailing but has legit two-TD upside and may not even be that popular a play given most people still view him as a sort of satellite back.
Running Back
Ty Johnson ($4,400)
I think Ty Johnson is another good way to get unique with a Josh Allen stack. The RB has scored five times this season and four of those scores came as a receiver, so he’s got good under-the-radar correlation with his QB. Johnson is also just a really solid player. He averaged 15.8 yards per catch this season and over 5.0 yards per carry, so he’s got the capability to go off on five-to-eight touches.
He probably makes more sense to play in lineups where you are fading the Bills top RB in James Cook but the two do play very different roles so it’s conceivable that both men have big days, much like they did vs. Denver, and in Week 15 vs. Detroit. Regardless, as far as a low-owned upside goes, he does stand out as the flex-option from the Bills I like the most this week.
Kenneth Gainwell ($4,600)
Gainwell is essentially an all-or-nothing, max-leverage play against Saquon Barkley lineups, which would make him a Milly Maker-only pick for me.
Obviously, we’re counting on either a Barkley injury or a broken play where Gainwell breaks free for a long score (and Barkley is bottled up to an extent) for him to be viable. Still, given the top-heavy nature of the payouts in the Millionaire Maker, the fact we have just a two-game slate, the fact Saquon Barkley will be the most popular of this slate, AND the sheer number of lineups we’re competing against, playing for such an outcome is not a poor idea at all.
Wide Receiver
Jamison Crowder ($3,100)
It’s a little crazy to think that we are down to two teams and talking about Jamison Crowder as a potential DFS play but here we are. The veteran played on over 40% of the snaps last week and caught two passes, which is two more than Olamide Zaccheaus caught, whom Crowder is competing with for work.
Zaccheaus also got banged up last game, and while he is the better receiver at this point, Crowder may just have to play more out of necessity if Zaccheaus can’t handle a full workload or gets reinjured. Either way, if you’re playing Daniels at QB and looking for a unique tertiary-stacking option, then Crowder is definitely in play this week in terms of Milly Maker picks.
AJ Brown ($6,800)
How you approach Saquon Barkley ($9,800) might be the most important question of the week for lineup building. He should be the most popular player on the slate which for game theory purposes also makes fading him very attractive.
Barkley has had a few trip-ups this season, as recently as Week 15 vs. the Steelers when he rushed for 68 yards and was held out of the endzone (9.4 DKFP). In that game, Brown went for 110 yards and a TD and scored 28.0 DKFP. It’s far from a lock, but if somehow, the Commanders are able to stop Barkley, or the Eagles fall behind to the point where they have to abandon the run, Brown’s time to shine for fantasy could finally be here.
He was inefficient last week with just two catches on seven targets but also beat this Commanders’ secondary for 97 yards and a TD in Week 16. If you’re fading Barkley in GPPs, then Brown is the logical pivot when targeting this game and building out lineups.
Tight End
Dawson Knox ($2,600)
I mentioned the great matchup for Dalton Kincaid above, and while I do think he’ll be the Bill most likely to benefit from the matchup with the Chiefs it is certainly in the realm of possibility that Dawson Knox makes an appearance and is the Bills TE to bust through with an outlier game.
Knox has buried the Chiefs before scoring twice against them in four games and went for 117 yards and a TD against them back in 2021. Maybe you play Knox as a lower-cost flex play, alongside a Kelce or Ertz at TE but either way, he does have some value this week just given the matchup and the fact he’s one of the only backup TEs to see consistent targeting.
Another player you don’t need to go deep on or consider in higher stakes lineups but could be the key to unlocking a winning Josh Allen stack in the 140k+ person Milly Maker contest.
Defense/Special Teams
Commanders ($2,700)
Let me just start by saying that I think there is a far better chance that the highest-scoring DST comes from the NFC game. The Eagles have a stellar defense that could knock Jayden Daniels around (potentially even from the game) and force a fumble-return/sack-TD on any play. The Commanders proved last week they have some big-play ability as well. They’ve forced fumbles in two straight games, came down with four INTs last week vs. Detroit, and a have defensive-minded genius at head coach in Dan Quinn.
From a game theory perspective, however, I don’t think this decision is close. The Eagles will be the most popular play on the slate given they sit as six-point favorites and at such a volatile position like DST, where a random kick-return or fumble can swing a slate on its head. For the big contests like the Millionaire Maker (but honestly for all GPPs) I’d far rather go with the lower-owned and lower-priced option in Washington this week.
