With the NFC Championship Game set to kick off tomorrow at 3 p.m. ET, let’s take a look back.
The Philadelphia Eagles were widely expected to be here. The Washington Commanders were not.
The second-seeded Eagles, who finished the regular season with a 14-3 record, have made their way comfortably through the postseason, posting a 22-10 home win over the Green Bay Packers during the Wild Card Round and a 28-22 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round that only really got nervy towards the end.
Meanwhile, the Commanders’ 23-20 Wild Card Round victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was surprising, but the game was expected to be close regardless. What wasn’t so expected was that Washington would march into Ford Field a week later and dismantle the Detroit Lions, intercepting four passes in a 45-31 thriller.
DraftKings Sportsbook favors Philadelphia by six points to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in three years, with the point total set to 47.5. The Eagles are -278 on the Moneyline, and the Commanders are +225.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
For up-to-the-minuSet your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $500K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (WAS @ PHI).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Saquon Barkley ($17,400 CP) – For me, picking Barkley as my Captain has become a tradition unlike any other, given that I’ve done it in every round of this playoff run. How could I not when he’s coming off this stat line: 26 carries, 205 rushing yards, four catches, 27 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 42.2 fantasy points? His price may be lofty, but the 0.0029 fantasy points per dollar that he has averaged this season is the most out of the four remaining running backs.
Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni clearly understands how good his leading man is, given that he operates the single most run-heavy scheme in the league. In the Eagles’ Divisional Round win, quarterback Jalen Hurts dropped back to pass just 27 times. The snow certainly played a factor, and so did the knee that Hurts tweaked during the game, but regardless, fans can expect to see a heavy dose of Barkley on Sunday.
For what it’s worth, the fans will likely see a heavy dose of an effective Barkley on Sunday, given Washington’s struggles against the run. During the regular season, the Commanders allowed 1,935 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground to opposing running backs, both of which were bottom-five marks in the league, and opposing ball-carriers also gained 4.8 yards per carry, the third-best efficiency in football. In its first two playoff games, Washington gave up 302 combined rushing yards on just 48 attempts, an eye-popping 6.3 yards per carry, although 61 of them came on a touchdown rush by Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams.
Terry McLaurin ($14,100 CP) – McLaurin had been an underrated gem on a bunch of bad Commanders teams over the first six seasons of his NFL career. He has recorded over 1,000 receiving yards in five of his first six seasons, and only two missed games in his rookie year prevented him from joining Mike Evans and Randy Moss in that elite club. Playing with an elite signal-caller for the first time, McLaurin has put up the finest season of his career, recording 82 catches for 1,096 yards and 13 scores, the franchise’s single-season receiving touchdown record. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has posted a 133.0 passer rating when targeting McLaurin this season.
After his tremendous regular season, McLaurin has turned it up a notch in the postseason. He caught seven of his 10 targets for 89 yards and a score in the Wild Card Round victory over Tampa Bay and followed it up with a four-catch, 87-yard, one-touchdown performance against Detroit the following week. The sub-50 degree temperatures and winds of Philadelphia will present the biggest challenge yet for McLaurin and Daniels, but given that he’s commanded a team-leading 22.2% target share — including 20.8% on throws into the end zone — he should be just fine.
The Eagles are a tough matchup for opposing wide receivers, conceding the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position this season. Wideouts have only amassed 2,202 receiving yards — the third-fewest in the league — and 17 touchdowns, a roughly middle-of-the-pack number. Five-time Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay, likely to draw the primary McLaurin assignment, has allowed just an 81.9 passer rating this season and Philadelphia held Rams wideout Puka Nacua to just six catches and 97 yards on 14 targets last Sunday. In the teams’ first matchup this season, McLaurin had just one catch for 10 yards, but he got his redemption with a five-catch, 60-yard, one-touchdown (17.0 FPT) performance five weeks later.
FLEX Plays
Jayden Daniels ($11,000) – I wanted to make Daniels one of my two Captain’s Picks, but since he’s the second-most expensive player on Sunday’s slate, I decided to dedicate a FLEX section to him instead. Regardless of whether he’s a captain or merely a FLEX play, he’s a must in any lineup.
Going into the postseason, I was concerned about rookie playoff woes. Andrew Luck — arguably the most talented quarterback prospect in the 21st Century — experienced them. Lamar Jackson, possibly a soon-to-be three-time MVP and future Hall of Famer, experienced them. Daniels has not; in his short playoff career so far, he’s completed 69.7% of his passes for 567 yards, four scores, and no interceptions while rushing 29 times for 87 yards (23.69 FPTS per game). His 116.2 passer rating is the second-best efficiency for a rookie quarterback in NFL history.
Philadelphia has been unkind to opposing passers, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points, second-fewest passing yards, sixth-fewest passing touchdowns and the 12th-most interceptions during the regular season. But the Eagles have struggled somewhat against mobile quarterbacks like Daniels, allowing 353 rushing yards and three touchdowns to signal-callers, which both land in the middle of the pack. In fact, Daniels had his most productive fantasy game of the season in Week 16 against them, completing 61.5% of his passes for 258 yards, five touchdowns, and two picks and adding another 66 yards on the ground (36.42 FPTS).
Dallas Goedert ($5,600) – If you’ve picked Barkley as your Captain and Daniels as a FLEX play, that leaves just $5,400 per remaining slot, so in order to save salary, I’ll go with a cheaper player for my second FLEX play. Philadelphia receivers A.J. Brown ($9,800) and DeVonta Smith ($8,800) would both be fine plays here, but for a budget option, I’d rather go with someone like Goedert.
The seventh-year veteran was a major contributor in the Eagles’ most recent Super Bowl run, hauling in 16 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown across three games in the 2022-23 postseason. He’s the most-experienced postseason performer among Philadelphia’s skill-position players and has been pretty good in the 2024-25 playoffs so far, catching eight of his 10 targets for 103 yards and a score. Hurts clearly trusts him in critical moments; although he’s third on the team in overall target share, he was targeted on a whopping 28.6% of Hurts’ throws in the red zone this season, by far the most on the team.
The Commanders’ secondary has given up the 18th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, making them a good matchup for Goedert. Although opposing tight ends have only recorded 678 receiving yards this season, the fifth-fewest in the league, they also have scored eight touchdowns, tied for the fifth-most. Washington strong safety Jeremy Chinn has been particularly poor in pass coverage this season, allowing a 131.2 passer rating on his 53 targets. In the team’s first matchup, Goedert recorded five catches for 61 yards, his fifth-best fantasy performance of the season.
Fades
Austin Ekeler ($6,400) – Despite Ekeler being named second-team All-Pro this season, I like Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,600)‘s fantasy upside more. Robinson was frustratingly inconsistent, especially in the latter half of the season — with 10 double-digit and 10 single-digit fantasy performances — but Ekeler only had three games of 15 fantasy points or more. While Robinson found the end zone twice in the win over the Lions, Ekeler has been pretty quiet in the postseason, carrying the ball just 14 times and racking up only 74 yards. He is more involved as a receiver than Robinson, with seven catches and 67 yards in the last two games, but his limited ceiling doesn’t really justify his price.
I’m especially hesitant to go with Ekeler against an Eagles defensive front that allowed the second-fewest FPTS to running backs this season. Philadelphia allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards and second-fewest rushing touchdowns to the position, as well as the seventh-fewest receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. The Eagles defense is packed with stars; inside linebacker Zach Baun is Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated player at his position.
THE OUTCOME
On paper, Philadelphia should win this game. The Eagles have a much stronger defense, a better run game, and better wide receivers.
But the most important position in the game is quarterback, and especially if Hurts is less than 100%, Daniels’ advantage is clear. At some point, he has to regress to the mean, especially against the toughest defense that he’s faced in his brilliant first postseason run. But, by that same token, five rookie quarterbacks have advanced to the conference championship, and none have reached the Super Bowl, which is statistically pretty unlikely.
I’m backing Daniels to make history one more time.
