The race to be crowned Super Bowl Champions has thinned down to just four teams with the NFL playoffs already flying by. Both conferences will crown their champion this week to decide the Super Bowl matchup, leaving us with just two football games this weekend and three remaining on the season.
It is not too much of a surprise in the AFC as the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills for the second time in the past five years. Buffalo will be the final AFC team to attempt to prevent the Chiefs from becoming the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
The matchup in the NFC is a bit more of a surprise. The Philadelphia Eagles successfully picked themselves up off the matt and recovered from last year’s midseason collapse. They are now one win away from reaching the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons. Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders have vastly exceeded expectations this season and are coming off an impressive upset victory over the top-seeded Detroit Lions last week. These two NFC East rivals split their regular-season matchups and Daniels will be looking to add another bullet point to his resume for why this is one of the most impressive rookie seasons of all time.
One of the best parts of DraftKings is the opportunity to pick a new squad every week with a variety of DFS contests. While the stakes have changed as the number of games is cut down, there are still plenty of options on the DFS slate. Here is my top lineup for the Conference Championship matchups.
Quarterback:
Josh Allen ($7,500)
If Josh Allen does not play at an extremely high level, the Buffalo Bills will not win this matchup. While this is a simplistic view of the game, Allen has more on his plate than the rest of the quarterbacks and continues to play some of the best football of his career. He is averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game in the playoffs, which trails only Jayden Daniels ($7,000) as the highest performer. While there is a case to be made for why Daniels is the better quarterback option at a cheaper price tag, I have more confidence in Allen going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes than I do in Daniels playing a divisional rival and the toughest defense he has faced in this playoff run.
Allen finished the regular season ranked as the fourth-highest scoring quarterback based on DraftKings fantasy production. He finished with 25.0 fantasy points during the regular-season matchup between these two teams, which was his sixth-highest output of the season.
Arrowhead is a difficult place to play, but Allen has fared better than most. This is the playoff matchup that he has had circled on his calendar since before the bracket was set, so expect him to deliver. The Pro Bowl quarterback threw a career-low six interceptions in the regular season and has not turned the ball over in the playoffs yet. This was once the Achilles heel in his game and cleaning it up has changed his outlook. Allen has the arm talent to make any throw and his ability with his legs around the goal line creates a ceiling for his fantasy output that has me believing he will end up the top-scoring quarterback this week.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley ($8,600)
The Eagles’ star running back enters as the most expensive player of the week and for good reason. Saquon Barkley has produced 59.5 fantasy points, based on DraftKings scoring, across the opening two games of the playoffs. None of the remaining running backs have logged more than 32.2.
While the Eagles’ offensive roster is loaded with talent, it has become increasingly clear as the season progressed that Barkley is their best player. He became one of nine players in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards and has shown no signs of slowing down since the playoffs started. Barkley ran for 205 rushing yards last week against the Rams, along with two touchdowns, which marked the fifth-most yards ever tallied in an NFL playoff game.
Washington struggled to stop the run this season and finished the regular season ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. It was also 18th in rushing touchdowns conceded and 28th in net yards per rush attempt. The uncertain status of Jalen Hurts’ knee could lead to an even further workload put on Barkley’s plate. The $8,600 price point is high, but you won’t find a player with a more clearcut path to be the top-performing fantasy player than Barkley this week.
Kareem Hunt ($5,400)
Neither Chiefs running back will be in line for significant carries, but Kareem Hunt has gradually overtaken Isiah Pacheco ($5,200) as the more productive rusher. In last week’s victory over the Texans, Hunt carried the ball eight times for 44 yards and a touchdown while also adding one catch. He finished with 11.6 fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring, which ranked eighth on the week. In contrast, Pacheco had just five carries for 18 yards and was unable to pull in the lone target thrown his way in the passing game.
This is more than just a one-week outlier as Hunt logged a higher percentage of offensive snaps in the final two weeks both running backs played while tying or reaching Pacheco’s percent of snaps in four of the final five weeks. Across the 13 games he played in the season, Hunt ran the ball 200 times for 728 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. He also added 23 receptions for 176 receiving yards. In the seven games that Pacheco played, he ran the ball 83 times for 310 yards and a touchdown and tallied 12 receptions for 79 yards.
Both running backs should be in line for more success against this Bills defense. Buffalo ranks 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards conceded this season. It also ranks 12th in rushing yards allowed and 19th in net yards per rush attempt. While it still got the victory, Buffalo allowed 176 rushing yards to the Ravens last week. Expect the Chiefs to have more balance in their offense this week and for Hunt to outperform Pacheco in the backfield. His impact around the goal line and ability to make something out of nothing has stood out to close the season. Look for this to continue against Buffalo and for Hunt to produce a positive DFS impact.
Wide Receivers
Khalil Shakir ($5,700)
The Bills elected to move on from Stefon Diggs this past offseason and rely on a more committee-based approach from their wide receiver production. This has not slowed down Josh Allen whatsoever and Khalil Shakir made it clear he was the top option as the season progressed. Shakir finished the regular season with 76 receptions for 821 yards, which both led the Bills as a team. He also added four receiving touchdowns and tallied at least two catches in every game this season.
Shakir has continued his strong season into the playoffs. He is tied for the most catches in the NFL so far these playoffs with 12 receptions for 128 yards across the opening two games. The 24-year-old has tallied 24.8 fantasy points across these opening two games, which ranks seventh in the NFL thus far. It is third among the remaining players.
Kansas City has embraced a more defensive-minded identity than we have come to expect from it, but it still can be vulnerable against the pass. On the season, the Chiefs ranked 18th in passing yards allowed, 12th in passing touchdowns conceded and 14th in net yards per pass attempt. Buffalo’s defense has even greater concerns and if the Bills are to have a chance in this game, they are going to need to put up some points. Expect Shakir to be heavily involved in this attack and put forth another strong performance in this game.
DeAndre Hopkins ($4,700)
The Chiefs made a midseason splash trading for DeAndre Hopkins after he spent the beginning of the season with the Tennessee Titans. Hopkins has been in the conversation for the league’s best receiver in years past and will still look to prove he has something left in the tank at 32 years old. Across the final 10 games he played with the Chiefs, Hopkins logged 41 receptions for 437 yards and four touchdowns.
During his playoff debut with Kansas City, Hopkins was held without a catch. This is a bit of a risky play because of this, but Hopkins feels due for his playoff moment and this is a matchup where the opportunity will be on the table. The five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver had played just six total playoff games in his career before this season. Looking at the matchup, the Bills rank 24th in passing yards allowed, 17th in net yards per pass attempts and 24th in passing touchdowns conceded. Hopkins tallied three receptions for 29 yards during the regular-season matchup but this was just his third game in a Chiefs uniform.
Expect this Chiefs vs. Bills matchup to have some offensive fireworks and for several notable skill position players to make their impact felt. Hopkins has lacked the opportunity to make a significant impact in the playoffs for most of his career and will be ready to make the most of it this week. Look for him to bounce back from his disappointing start to the playoff run and have a much better performance this week against the Bills.
Dyami Brown ($4,400)
Commanders wide receiver Dyami Brown has produced 35.7 fantasy points so far in the playoffs, which ranks fourth among all wide receivers and second among remaining wide receivers behind only his teammate Terry McLaurin ($6,700). Brown has been a pleasant surprise this season and had a career-best season in his fourth year in the league. He finished with 30 receptions for 308 receiving yards and a touchdown, especially impressing during the home stretch of the season.
Brown tallied three or more receptions in each of the past six weeks, including the first two playoff games. This includes tallying five receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown in the opening round of the playoffs against the Buccaneers and six receptions for 98 yards last week against the Lions. While Philadelphia’s defense will provide an increased challenge compared to their first two playoff matchups, Brown did tally four receptions for 56 yards against their NFC East rival in the final matchup of the season.
Philadelphia’s defense is tough, but the Commanders stand no chance if they cannot put up points in this matchup. While McLaurin is the clearcut top wide receiver, expect him to have his hands full with the majority of the Eagles’ league-leading pass defense to be focused on him. It can take just one play for him to end up with a positive DFS output. His chemistry has been impressive with Jayden Daniels during the final stretch of the season, so look for the two to connect on a few plays as they look to extend their season.
Flex
Ray Davis ($4,300)
There is no doubt that James Cook ($6,900) will dominate the running back touches for the Bills. But expect Ray Davis to also make his impact felt. Looking at the regular-season production, Cook ran the ball 207 times for 1,009 rushing yards and tied for a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns. He also added 32 receptions for 258 receiving yards and a pair of receiving touchdowns. Looking at Davis’ production, he carried the ball 113 times for 442 yards and three touchdowns while adding 17 receptions for 189 yards and three touchdowns through the air.
Davis produced the lone rushing touchdown in last week’s victory over the Ravens. He finished with 8.9 fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring compared to the 11.2 tallied by Cook. Davis logged as many as 23 touches in a game this season and recorded six or more touches in 12 games this season.
While he does not hold the top-end ceiling one would hope, I like Davis’ chances to outperform his $4,300 price point, and having him as a value play keeps the door open to keep higher-priced stars like Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley in your lineup. Look for Davis to make the most of his opportunities and contribute to your team’s total. Expect him to see some involvement in the passing game and for Davis to be called upon a few times in this game.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($6,000)
Suspicions that Travis Kelce was being underutilized in the regular season to preserve him for the playoffs were confirmed pretty quickly in last week’s game. The future Hall of Famer had his best game of the entire season in this year’s playoff debut. Kelce logged seven receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. He finished last week ranked third in fantasy output among all players with 27.7 fantasy points produced.
Looking at his regular-season production, Kelce tallied the fewest receiving yards and touchdowns of his career. But there is no more time to limit his level of opportunity as the Chiefs attempt to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. Kelce has some of the most extensive playoff experience of any player in football and has a favorable matchup against a vulnerable Bills defense. Buffalo’s defensive unit is a weak spot in this matchup and Kelce will go back to being leaned on as the top offensive weapon. The 35-year-old extended his streak to 14 consecutive playoff games with 70+ receiving yards and he has tallied 14 touchdowns across this stretch as well.
Getting Kelce at $6,000 is a great price point when you compare it to the other top pass-catching options such as A.J. Brown ($6,800) or Terry McLaurin ($6,700). Count on Kelce to be all over the field in this matchup and have the inside track leading the entire weekend in receiving production. He is the most expensive tight end with Dallas Goedert ($4,500) ranking second in this category. But by paying the premium, you almost expand your roster to an additional wide receiver slot if this is the rate Kelce will produce at.
Defense & Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles Defense & Special Teams ($3,300)
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the regular season with the second-fewest points allowed and fewest overall yards given up. They also allowed the fewest passing yards on the season, which will be put to the test as Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels looks to continue to add to one of the best rookie seasons of all time. While he has not blinked on any stage yet, this will be a difficult task as he returns to Philadelphia for the second time in his young career.
With the Commanders’ 30th-ranked rush defense as well as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen each being capable of putting their respective offenses on their shoulders, the Eagles feel like the best option for a defense this week. Expect both the Bills’ and Chiefs’ offenses to have some success, which limits the fantasy appeal of either of the teams’ defenses. While it is unlikely any team is fully neutralized, Washington is the only team to have a semi-legitimate chance.
Philadelphia had five sacks and two forced turnovers last week against the Rams and forced four turnovers the week earlier against the Packers. Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr. and the rest of the pass rush unit have only gotten stronger as the season has progressed and they will set the tone in this matchup. Count on the Eagles being the top-performing defense in the pair of Conference Championship matchups and keep them plugged into your lineup.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
