The PGA TOUR remains in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. The North and South Courses at Torrey Pines will host, while the South Course will be played in three of the four rounds. It measures as as 7,765-yard par 72 with Poa greens.
The field will be headlined by Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Aaron Rai to win (+5000)
Rai finally broke through for his first PGA TOUR win this fall, taking down the Wyndham Championship at the end of the summer. It’s been a long time coming for Rai, who’s been one of the premier ball-strikers in the world these past few years. The Englishman ranks No. 1 in this field in driving accuracy, fifth in SG: Approach, ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green and 12th in GIR% over his past 48 rounds.
Many people believe the only way to win at Torrey Pines is to bomb and gauge the ball, but if Rai is going to be living in the fairway while others are 20 yards ahead of him in the rough, he has the advantage. The results have bared that out at this event, as Rai is three-for-three in making the cut here with a T6 in 2022.
After struggling a bit after his win, Rai looked very strong at The Sentry in his last start, gaining 3.1 strokes ball-striking en route to a T15 finish. This 50/1 number is extremely disrespectful, especially when you consider guys like Luke Clanton and Kurt Kitayama are 10 and 15 points shorter, respectively, despite never having won anything before.
Harris English to win (+8000)
English has not won on the PGA TOUR since 2022, but he’s got plenty of high finishes since then, including two this past fall where he finished T9 at the Shriners Children’s Open and T6 at the Black Desert Championship. English has always played some of his best golf on long, tough golf courses, which might seem surprising due to his lack of distance off-the-tee.
His history at Torrey Pines is quite strong, having posted a pair of top-10 finishes at this event since 2015, while also finishing solo third at the U.S. Open at this very course in 2021. It will come down to the iron play for English, because the rest of his game is in tip-top shape right now, ranking 19th in this field in SG: Putting, ninth in SG: Around-the-Green and 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee over his past 24 rounds.
Both Jason Day (twice) and Justin Rose have won at Torrey Pines before, and profile very similarly to English. After looking quite strong on the Stadium Course last week where he gained 3.7 strokes from tee-to-green, I expect English to keep the momentum going this week at a track he’s proven he can handle in the past. At 80/1, you’re getting quite a bit of value as well.