And then there were four. Entering Conference Championship Weekend, here’s how DraftKings Sportsbook has the field lined up for the Super Bowl LIX Champion odds:
Before last week’s games, PHI was +400, KC was +350, BUF was +550 and WAS was +2800. Man, I wrote up the Rams at +2000 but my DeLorean is in the shop so I can’t go back in time to scoop up WAS at +2800.
I still like Buffalo at +260 to win Super Bowl LIX and here’s what I wrote up on the Bills last week:
I just can’t take my eyes off of the Bills at +550.
Talk about due! The Bills have made the playoffs in each of the last six seasons, making the conference championship only once.
Buffalo was fourth in EPA per carry defending the run. They were only 19th in EPA per dropback in pass defense, but the 16 interceptions were tied for fourth-most in the NFL while the pressure rate was 12th-best despite blitzing at the seventh-lowest rate.
On offense, the Bills were third in EPA per dropback and second in EPA per carry. Josh Allen is one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the league and has only thrown six interceptions while being sacked a paltry 14 times. Allen rushed 102 times for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns and 52 first downs.
Buffalo led the league in turnover differential at +24.
But considering the odds, that +700 with Washington has become intriguing.
There are obvious concerns, as the Commanders probably have the worst defense out of the remaining teams. The EPA per dropback on defense was the sixth-highest among all the playoff teams. The EPA per carry was middle of the pack, although 6.3 yards per carry is second-highest and the three rushing touchdowns allowed is tied for the most.
The pass defense has racked up four interceptions, though.
And that offense. Oh, baby, that offense.
Jayden Daniels is not a normal rookie. Outside a stretch midway through the season when he was banged up and couldn’t run, Daniels has been magnificent. The 0.41 EPA per dropback is the second-highest mark among all playoff participants. Daniels has been blitzed 47.4% of the time and been pressured on 34.2%, yet he’s only been sacked once and thrown four touchdowns without a pick.
The Commanders are intimately familiar with the Eagles and have confidence, having secured the 36-33 victory in Week 16 over Philly, so getting to the Super Bowl is well within the range of outcomes. Then anything can happen in one game.
I’m usually of the belief that one must experience loss and setbacks while climbing up the Game of Death pagoda, making it an arduous affair requiring patience and fortitude. That said, it’s a quarterback-driven league and, despite being a rookie, Daniels has proven that the big stage, bright lights and pressure do not faze him. His dual-threat ability is a nightmare for defenses. He’s been Atlas for the Commanders all season long and only two more wins bring glory. I can see the path to victory.
