The NFL Divisional Weekend is underway and the eight remaining teams are scrapping it out to advance to the conference championships.
Two games will be taking place on Sunday to decide the final seeds with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Los Angeles Rams in the afternoon before the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens face off to conclude the night. This MVP matchup will have plenty of eyes on it and has the potential to be one of the greatest football games of the year.
One of the best parts of DraftKings is the opportunity to pick a new squad every week with a variety of DFS contests. While the stakes have changed as the number of games is cut down, there are still plenty of options on the DFS slate. This article will look at the $1.5 million Sunday Special contest in which the first-place winner will take home $500,000. Here is my top lineup for the pair of games.
Quarterback:
Josh Allen ($7,700)
The argument in favor of Josh Allen for Most Valuable Player is that he has done more with less talent around him in comparison to Lamar Jackson. Allen will need to do exactly this when the lights are the brightest as the two MVP candidates square off.
Allen finished the regular season ranked fifth in fantasy points with 23.6 per game. He has completed 63.6 percent of his pass attempts this season for 219.5 passing yards per game, 28 passing touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions. The Wyoming product has also added 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns with his legs.
Baltimore has seen some notable improvement in its defense in the final weeks of the season. But looking at the season-long sample size, the Ravens rank 31st in passing yards allowed and 19th in passing touchdowns conceded. I don’t see a world in which the Bills can get a victory or remain competitive without a strong performance from Allen. Look for him to be at the center of all of the offensive production for Buffalo and for him to be the top performing fantasy quarterback this week.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley ($8,200)
The Philadelphia Eagles will host to Los Angeles Rams with snow expected to be coming down during the game. Philadelphia will especially lean on the running game with the weather in mind, but this has been its identity all season. Barkley became the ninth running back in NFL history to run for over 2,000 yards in a season and sat out the final week of the regular season to preserve himself for the playoffs rather than chance the all-time rushing record.
The former Giants’ star proved he still has plenty left in the tank in his Eagles playoff debut, rushing for 119 yards in the victory over the Packers. He finished with 17.3 fantasy points based on DraftKings scoring which was sixth among running backs last week. He also elected to take a knee to close out the game which would have been a 76-yard touchdown if Barkley took it the distance.
He will now prepare to face off with a Rams team which is much weaker defensively than the Packers team he faced last week. Los Angeles ranks 17th in points allowed, 26th in yards given up, 22nd in rushing yards allowed and 26th in net yards per rush attempt. These two teams faced off in Week 12 and Barkley rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns. This was the most rushing yards from any player in a game all season and the ninth most in a game in NFL history. Barkley’s $8,200 salary is an expensive price point but he has a legitimate chance of leading the entire NFL in production this week.
Derrick Henry ($8,000)
Baltimore made a huge offseason splash by bringing in Derrick Henry and he has been everything the organization has hoped for and more. The five-time Pro Bowl running back rushed for 1,921 yards during the regular season and finished tied for the most rushing touchdowns with 16 on the season. He also had success during the regular season when these two teams faced off as Henry ran for 199 yards and added a pair of touchdowns.
He got off to a strong start to his Ravens playoff career logging 186 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns last week. Henry trailed only Ladd McConkey for the best fantasy production of the Wild Card Round by adding 33.6 points based on DraftKings scoring.
It is essential to stop Henry at the line of scrimmage before he can pick up a head of steam. The Alabama product is averaging 24.3 yards per rush attempt when he is not contacted within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage this season. Buffalo allows the fifth-highest percentage of runs in which it does not contact rushers within the first five yards. During the Week 4 matchup between the Ravens and Bills, there were three runs that he was not contacted within the first five yards. Henry logged 150 of his 199 rushing yards during these three carries. Expect the star running back to get the ball plenty and break free for a game-changing run at least once. Henry has become a key part of the team’s identity and is a perfect complement to Lamar Jackson’s style of play. Expect him to be heavily involved and produce at a high level.
Wide Receivers
Rashod Bateman ($4,900)
The Ravens received some unfortunate injury news as Zay Flowers is listed as doubtful ahead of the Divisional Round matchup. Flowers has been the leading receiver for the team and is coming off an impressive season in which he caught 74 passes for 1,059 yards and four touchdowns. The show must go on with or without the top wide receiver and someone must fill his shoes.
Enter Rashod Bateman, who is in the midst of a solid season himself. The 25-year-old logged 45 receptions this season for a career-high 756 yards and nine touchdowns. While he was relatively quiet during the opening playoff matchup, Bateman still found his way into the end zone and added 24 receiving yards. He still finished as the 13th-ranked wide receiver based on DraftKings scoring.
Buffalo is weak against the pass already and will likely stack the box to attempt to slow down Henry. During the regular season, the Bills ranked 24th in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. Bateman will need to step up as the top wide receiver on Baltimore’s roster, so expect him to outperform his $4,900 price point with plenty of increased action heading his direction.
Keon Coleman ($4,100)
Buffalo moved on from Stefon Diggs this previous offseason and elected to take a more committee-based approach at wide receiver. They selected Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick in this year’s draft to make him part of this equation. It has been an up-and-down season but Coleman finished the year with 29 receptions for 556 yards and four touchdowns. He struggled in his playoff debut catching just one of his three targets for five total yards.
Expect some better results in this matchup with a game script that favors the passing game more. Coleman tallied 51 receiving yards during the regular season competition between these two teams and his big play ability will be necessary in this game. The Florida State product can take the top off the defense with his speed and still is strong at the point of attack with his 6-foot-3 frame.
There is a lot of variability in Coleman’s production, but expect him to have a few attempts at a big play in a matchup that will require the Bills to take some chances. Allen continues to play at such a high level and will need his receivers to step up with him. Expect Coleman to be a part of this and have a few chances for a game-changing play in this matchup.
Mack Hollins ($3,500)
Mack Hollins is another member of the Bills passing game that has emerged this season. The journeyman wide receiver has found a niche in the Bills’ system and finished the season with 31 receptions for 378 yards and five touchdowns.
Hollins especially has come on strong to close the season and is most useful as a red-zone threat. The North Carolina product stands 6-foot-4 with a strong frame that has led some coaches to try to utilize him as a tight end. Hollins has been locked into a full-time wide receiver role this year and has logged at least 50 percent of the offensive snaps in every game this season including 99 percent in the final week. During his first playoff game since 2017, Hollins logged 68 percent of offensive snaps but was able to pull in just one of his two targets for 19 yards.
The outlook for the 31-year-old is a bit more touchdown-or-bust than is ideal. But with Buffalo not having a clear top wide receiver and with this DFS lineup built to prioritize getting the top running backs in the lineup, Hollins is worth a swing. Expect him to be targeted whenever the team lands in the red zone and getting him in your lineup for a $3,500 price point could prove to be great value if the game plays out as hoped.
Flex
James Cook ($6,700)
While Barkley and Henry will headline the production at the running back position, James Cook is closer to their level of talent than he is often given credit. Cook carried the ball 207 times this season for 1,009 rushing yards while adding 258 receiving yards. He finished the year tied with an NFL-best 16 rushing touchdowns and also added two receiving touchdowns.
Cook got off to a strong start to the playoff run last week carrying the ball 23 times for 120 rushing yards and a touchdown. He finished third among running backs in fantasy production last week. Baltimore has been much more effective in stopping the run compared to the pass and has allowed the fewest overall rushing yards in the league. This is a bit distorted as Baltimore has held a lead for a notable part of this season, forcing opponents to throw more, but the available touches that Cook will receive still have me believing he will be in line for solid production.
Cook’s 18 total touchdowns speak for themselves, and he has averaged 63.1 rushing yards per game during the regular season. Expect him to remain involved in the offense and continue playing a key role in the Bills’ production.
Tight End
Isaiah Likely ($3,500)
Baltimore has leaned its tight ends more than most teams this season and this will be further magnified due to the Flowers’ injury. Both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are active in the passing attack and will see targets in this matchup. Likely tallied 42 receptions for 477 receiving yards and six total touchdowns.
Likely was tied for the most targets on the team during last week’s matchup with the Steelers. He finished with three receptions for 53 yards and logged 80 percent of the offensive snaps. Likely is the more talented pass-catcher out of the two tight-end options. Expect Andrews to be tasked with more of the blocking responsibilities, while Likely can leak out as a pass-catcher.
He will not be responsible for winning you the week but look for him to outperform his $3,500 price point. Likely has tallied as many as nine receptions for 111 yards in a game this season. With Baltimore’s receiving unit banged up look for Likely to be elevated in the pecking order and have a chance for significant production.
Defense & Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles Defense & Special Teams ($3,400)
The Philadelphia Eagles are set to host the Los Angeles Rams with snow in the air. Philadelphia has seen some impressive growth on the defensive side of the ball as the season has progressed. After some concerning signs at the start of the season, Philadelphia finished the year ranked second in points allowed and the fewest overall yards conceded.
The Rams are playing their best football at the right time, but are in for a rude awakening against this Eagels’ defensive front. Los Angeles ranks 17th in scoring and 26th in yards produced during the regular season. During last week’s matchup with the Packers, the Eagles tallied two sacks, four tackles for a loss and four total turnovers. They also recorded five sacks in the regular season matchup with the Rams.
Expect Philadelphia to set the tone with its defensive front and for Matthew Stafford to lack the necessary time to get through his progressions. Los Angeles was held to 20 points in the regular season matchup and Philadelphia has looked even stronger down the stretch. Look for the Eagles to be active in creating sack opportunities, be opportunistic when chances for turnovers present themselves and for the Rams to fail to put enough points on the board to be harmful from a fantasy perspective.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
