The race to be crowned Super Bowl Champions has thinned down to eight teams with the first weekend of playoff football already in the books.
The Divisional Round of games will kick off with four matchups taking place across the weekend. On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans before the night concludes with the Washington Commanders attempting to upset the Detroit Lions. On Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles will host the Los Angeles Rams before the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens square off in perhaps the most highly anticipated game of the season.
One of the best parts of DraftKings is the opportunity to pick a new squad every week with a variety of DFS contests. While the stakes have changed as the number of games is cut down there are still plenty of options on the DFS slate. Here is my top lineup for the Divisional round of matchups.
Quarterback:
C.J. Stroud ($5,000)
C.J. Stroud enters the week as the cheapest option of the starting quarterbacks but don’t expect his production to match this. Stroud led the Texans on an impressive comeback win over the Chargers even if the defense, and Justin Herbert’s four interceptions, deservingly have gotten the headlines. Stroud’s 282 passing yards were the most of any quarterback last week and he finished fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy production with 18.5 points based on DraftKings scoring.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be coming off their bye week and have had plenty of time to rest. They have leaned on more of a defensive-minded approach this season and finished the year ranked fourth in points allowed and ninth in yards given up. However, they are weaker against the pass and rank 18th in passing yards allowed, 14th in net yards per pass attempt and 12th in passing touchdowns conceded.
There has been a bit too much made about Stroud taking a step back this season. While it is true that he did not replicate his rookie season statistical output, most teams in the NFL would be leaping at the opportunity for him to start under center. No moment has looked too big for the Ohio State product, so expect a composed performance from him this week. These two teams faced off in Week 16 in which Stroud threw for 244 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He will need to be better in this game, but he still put up 18.1 points based on DraftKings scoring.
Expect Stroud to outperform his pricepoint and be ready to go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes with the pressure on him. He has not blinked at the big moment yet in his career, so be confident about Stroud delivering again this week.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry ($8,000)
Derrick Henry trails only Saquon Barkley ($8,200) for the most expensive running back of the week but is worth it. He has been exactly what this Ravens team has needed this season and will be relied on heavily in this MVP showdown. Henry ran for 1,921 yards during the regular season and finished tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the league. The former Titans star then made the most of his playoff debut with Baltimore rushing for 186 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Henry trailed only Ladd McConkey for the best fantasy production last week producing 33.6 points. He will now prepare to face a Bills team that he has had great success against. When these two teams faced off back in Week 4, Henry ran for 199 yards and a touchdown while also adding a receiving touchdown.
It is essential to stop Henry at the line of scrimmage before he can pick up a head of steam. He is averaging 24.3 yards per rush attempt when he is not contacted within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage this season. Buffalo allows the fifth-highest percentage of runs in which they do not contact rushers within the first five yards. Henry had three runs in the Week 4 matchup in which he was not contacted within the first five yards and these attempts made up 150 of his 199 rushing yards. Expect Henry to break free at some point in this game and for the Ravens to lean on him heavily throughout.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700)
As the Lions prepare to face the Washington Commanders, Jahmyr Gibbs is the third most expensive running back on the weekend slate. David Montgomery is expected to return this weekend after suffering an MCL issue in Week 15 which put his availability for the remainder of the year in doubt. Detroit is at its best when the “Sonic and Knuckles” backfield is in full force, but it is fair to be skeptical of what level Montgomery is at or how large of a workload he can handle.
Gibbs is plenty capable of holding down the rushing attack on his own. Across the final three weeks of the season in which Montgomery was sidelined, Gibbs carried the ball 64 times for 365 yards and five rushing touchdowns. He also added 122 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air across this same period. Across the season overall, Gibbs tallied 1,929 yards from scrimmage and a league-leading 20 total touchdowns.
This is an excellent opportunity for Gibbs to produce a monstrous statistical output against a struggling Commanders defense. They finished the regular season ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed, 28th in net yards per rush attempt and 18th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Detroit has a dominant offensive line that will pave the way, and Gibbs is plenty capable of making the rest happen. Don’t be shocked if he ends up the week’s leading fantasy scorer overall.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin ($6,300)
The Washington Commanders will have their hands full this week as they attempt to take down the top-seeded Detroit Lions. If the Commanders are to have any chance in this game, they are going to need to put up some points. Detroit led the NFL in scoring this season with 33.2 points per game.
Washington produced a mature victory over the Buccaneers last week in which Jayden Daniels once again showcased how no moment is too large for him. The Commanders will need another significant performance from the rookie in this game and count on him leaning on Terry McLaurin often. The veteran wide receiver has been one of the most consistent producers in the NFL throughout his career and this season marked his fifth consecutive 1,000+ yard receiving season. Overall, he tallied 82 receptions for 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. McLaurin delivered in the first playoff game catching seven of his 10 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown.
Detroit’s defense has shown some weaknesses throughout the year, such as ranking 30th in passing yards allowed, but has played better down the stretch. The Commanders will greatly struggle to slow down the Lions’ high-powered offense and will need to match this when they have the football. Expect McLaurin to be heavily involved throughout and to put forth an impressive statistical output even if much of it comes with the game out of reach.
DeVonta Smith ($5,700)
The Philadelphia Eagles are prepared to face off with the Los Angeles Rams for the second time this season. These two teams played in Week 12 which resulted in a 37-20 victory by Philadelphia. This also occurred without DeVonta Smith on the field.
While Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown oftentimes take the headlines, Smith is plenty capable of producing in his role. Smith tallied 833 receiving yards and eight touchdowns across the 13 games he played this season and has a favorable matchup against this Rams team. Across the regular season, they ranked 20th in passing yards allowed, 26th in passing touchdowns conceded and 26th in net yards per pass attempt.
While Los Angeles had success shutting down the Vikings last week, this had much more to do with the pass rush and Sam Darnold’s struggles than its coverage. The Eagles’ offensive line will provide a different challenge, so expect Hurts to see significantly more time in the pocket. While they leaned mostly on a run-based attack in last week’s victory over the Packers, Smith finished as the team’s leading receiver. Expect Philadelphia to attack more through the air this week and for Smith to put forth a solid fantasy football scoring output.
Keon Coleman ($4,100)
With so much invested in the running back position in my lineup, we are going to have to take some high-upside swings. Keon Coleman will be one of these and the rookie could be in line to outperform his $4,100 pricepoint in a major way. The matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens headlines the entire week of football, so expect some offensive fireworks to occur.
It has been an up-and-down season for Coleman but he finished with 29 receptions for 556 yards and four touchdowns. He struggled in his playoff debut catching just one of his three targets for five yards. Expect a different story this week against a Ravens team that Buffalo will need more scoring against. Coleman tallied 51 receiving yards during the matchup between these teams in the regular season and his big play ability will be necessary in this game.
Looking at the regular season production, Baltimore ranks 31st in passing yards allowed and 19th in passing touchdowns conceded. They improved drastically during the final stretch of the season, but the numbers don’t lie. Josh Allen has played at an incredible level this season and will need Coleman to produce for this game. He is a risky play, but I expect a lot of points on the board in this matchup and for Coleman to get his share of action.
Flex
Justice Hill ($4,800)
There is no doubt that Derrick Henry will lead the production from the running back position for the Ravens. But Justice Hill has done an excellent job carving out a role for himself within the offense as a passing-down back. He finished the regular season with 383 receiving yards, 228 rushing yards and four total touchdowns. Hill logged at least one catch in all but one game this season and his importance was seen last week when he caught a touchdown pass from Lamar Jackson on an ad-lib play the close the half.
Hill had six carries and four receptions in last week’s game. Jackson has proven to trust him in big spots, and he will be looked at as the third-down back in many situations. Baltimore will leave everything on the table in this matchup, and Hill has a larger role in the offense than most expected coming into the year. He logged 33 percent or more of the offensive snaps in all but one game this year including five weeks with at least 50 percent of the offensive snaps all while Henry remained healthy. During the regular season matchup with Buffalo, Hill tallied six receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown as well as four carries for 18 rushing yards.
He likely will not win you the week from a DFS perspective but count on Hill to see a few opportunities with the ball in his hand and be looked at as a weapon around the red zone. Look for him to build off the 10 touches he received in the opening week of the playoffs and don’t be surprised if he finds pay dirt again.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($5,000)
It was a mild statistical output for Travis Kelce this season by his sky-high bar of expectations. He finished the year with 97 receptions for 823 yards and three touchdowns. This marks the fewest receiving yards and touchdowns of his career. While this is uncharacteristic for the future Hall of Famer, it has felt at times like this was more to preserve him for the playoffs rather than any sort of concern. It was not always the clearest pathway to getting there, but Kansas City finished the year 15-2 and with the top seed in the conference.
Kelce has led the entire NFL in playoff receiving yards in three of the past four years. He also has recorded the most playoff-receiving touchdowns in four of the last five. He has not been held below five receptions in a playoff game since 2009 and has recorded 70+ receiving yards in 13 straight playoff games.
Expect the bye week to prove valuable for the 35-year-old and for Patrick Mahomes to lean on him far more frequently than was the case in the regular season. Houston had an impressive defensive performance in the opening week of the playoffs, but very few players have the playoff experience that Mahomes and Kelce have. Expect them to lead the charge for this Chiefs team and for Kelce to provide the rest of the NFL with a reminder of how much of a game-changing talent he still is.
Defense & Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles Defense & Special Teams ($3,400)
The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Los Angeles Rams this week and have seen some impressive growth from their defensive unit as the season has progressed. They finished the regular season ranked second in points allowed and the fewest yards conceded. Philadelphia also has allowed the fewest passing yards and ranks first in net yards allowed per pass attempt.
The Los Angeles Rams are playing their best football at the right time, but are in for a rude awakening against this intimidating defensive front. Los Angeles ranks 17th in scoring and 26th in yards gained during the regular season. During last week’s matchup with the Packers, the Eagles produced two sacks, four tackles for a loss and four total turnovers. They also tallied five sacks during the regular season matchup with the Rams.
Expect Philadelphia’s pass rush to cause some issues in this game and for Matt Stafford to lack the necessary time to produce. The Rams were held to 20 points in the regular season and the Eagles’ defensive unit has been better since this point. Expect points to be hard to come by and for the Eagles to produce a positive fantasy output.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
