Editor’s Note: Texans RB Joe Mixon (ankle) is expected to play, per FOX Sports’ Jordan Schultz.
Joe Mixon ($6,500) rushed 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown in his Texans debut. Unfortunately, he suffered an injury in Week 2, causing him to miss the next three weeks. When he returned, he exceeded the 100-yard threshold in four consecutive games, but then cracks became apparent in the foundation.
While he did rush for over 100 yards in two of the next four contests, the volume and yardage dissipated. Mixon received fewer than 15 carries in five of the last six games he played. He had exceeded 20 carries in six of the first seven games he was healthy.
In the Wild Card matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, though, it was “vintage” Mixon, as he carried 25 times for 106 yards and a touchdown while catching another touchdown. We back, baby!
Not so fast.
Mixon popped up on the injury report on Wednesday due to an ankle injury. There’s been no mention of exactly when or how the injury occurred. On Thursday, he was a DNP and is officially questionable for Saturday’s contest against the Chiefs.
Does that make Dameon Pierce ($4,200) a must-start if Mixon is unable to go?
It’s complicated.
Pierce would certainly elevate to the top of the depth chart, with Dare Ogunbowale ($4,000) remaining in a change-of-pace role. Ogunbowale has pretty much seen a 20 percent snap share since Week 10.
Pierce has played sparingly, mostly due to injury, but when given the majority of the snaps in Week 18, he rushed 19 times for 176 yards and a touchdown. In Week 6, he carried eight times for 76 yards and a touchdown and, despite running a 4.59 40-yard dash, he has a 92-yard touchdown on the resume.
The price of $4,200 is very appealing for a running back who would likely see significant volume. But, but, but …
The Chiefs are favored by 8.5 points, so establishing it seems unlikely. At some point, the Texans will likely have to tilt toward the aerial attack, neutering the prospects for Pierce. Pierce does have some catching acumen out of the backfield. He’s garnered a total of 60 targets in 38 career games with the Texans, catching 45 of those for 268 yards and a touchdown. That said, Ogunbowale would likely see an increased role in that scenario.
Let’s just say, though, that the game is tight and remains close, with the Texans able to ground and pound. Kansas City is 12th in EPA per carry on defense and has allowed the fewest FPTS to running backs on average. The Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards, sixth-fewest touchdowns and sixth-fewest receptions.
Finally, the ownership for Pierce would likely be extremely high, considering the price and expected volume.
It comes down to roster construction.
