We talkin’ bout playoffs?! Yeah, not only are we talkin’ bout playoffs, but we prognosticating all the way out to the Super Bowl! Entering the Divisional Round this weekend, here’s how DK Sportsbook has the field lined up:
I kind of like the Rams at +2000. The defense has been playing better, Stafford/McVay won it all only a few seasons ago and they did beat the Bills in Week 14. They were also the least penalized team in the NFL and had a +6 turnover differential during the regular season, so they rarely beat themselves. LA can beat any of the teams on any given week, but they also lost to Chicago in Week 4 so….
I do like the Lions a lot, as they are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL and have patiently climbed the NFL Game of Death pagoda over the last few seasons. They are primed and ready. There are reasons why they are the current favorities.
I just can’t take my eyes off of the Bills at +550.
Talk about due! The Bills have made the playoffs in each of the last six seasons, making the conference championship only once.
Buffalo was fourth in EPA per carry defending the run. They were only 19th in EPA per dropback in pass defense, but the 16 interceptions were tied for fourth-most in the NFL while the pressure rate was 12th-best despite blitzing at the seventh-lowest rate.
On offense, the Bills were third in EPA per dropback and second in EPA per carry. Josh Allen is one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the league and has only thrown six interceptions while being sacked a paltry 14 times. Allen rushed 102 times for 531 yards and 12 touchdowns and 52 first downs.
Buffalo led the league in turnover differential at +24.
The obvious big bugaboo is the 35-10 loss to Baltimore earlier in the season. That game was in Baltimore way back in Week 4. They get to host the Ravens this week. While the Rams defeated the Bills in Week 14, that game was 44-42 and the Rams can beat any team on any given week. Buffalo defeated the Chiefs in Week 11 and the Lions in Week 15.
I love Lamar Jackson, John Harbaugh, Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens, but they scare me. They were the second-most penalized team in the NFL and lost to the Raiders in Week 2. That’s an automatic disqualification! I kid I kid. Baltimore has certainly been on a roll lately and I can see them winning it all as well, but there are enough question marks to have hesitation in backing them.
