After their greatest-ever regular season, in which they finished with an NFC-best 15-2 record, the Detroit Lions will open their playoff campaign with a home game against the upstart Washington Commanders. After pulling off an upset victory over the third-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the Wild Card Round, Washington will travel to Detroit to face the Lions at 8 p.m. ET.
If Detroit wins, it’ll mark back-to-back NFC Championship Game appearances, after it took a 34-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers during the 2023-24 playoffs. A Commanders victory, on the other hand, would mark their first conference championship appearance since January 12, 1992, when they blew out the Lions, 41-10.
Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for the all-important matchup.
Detroit is a 9.5-point favorite (-485 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 55.5. Meanwhile, Washington is +370 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
The Moneyline gives the Lions an implied 80% chance of victory, which is more or less in line with the public’s expectations. 78% of bets were placed on Detroit to emerge victorious, while big-money bettors were more confident in the upset, as 31% of the handle was placed on the Commanders. Both teams come into the game in excellent form, as the Lions won 14 of their last 15 games, with the only loss coming in a 48-42 thriller against the Buffalo Bills, and Washington is on a six-game winning streak of its own. Commanders bettors are likely banking on the fact that the team is 4-3 this season as the underdog.
Bettors are much more even on the spread, with 51% of bets being placed on Washington to lose by nine points or fewer. However, big-money bettors are more confident in the Lions, as Detroit has attracted 61% of the handle. Both teams have been pretty good against the spread this season; the Commanders are 11-6-1 against the spread, while the Lions are 12-4-1.
The public is expecting the game to go under 55.5 points, despite the fact that the Lions (33.2 points per game) had the highest-scoring offense during the regular season and Washington (28.5 points per game) finished fifth. Detroit was pretty elite on defense, allowing the seventh-fewest points per game (20.1) despite dealing with a spate of injuries. The Lions have hit the over in four of their last five games (9-7-1 overall). Meanwhile, three of the Commanders’ last five games went under, although the over was 11-7 in Washington games overall.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Saturday’s game:
- Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD Scorer (-235)
- Jameson Williams Anytime TD Scorer (+135)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD Scorer (-120)
- Jahmyr Gibbs First TD Scorer (+390)
- Terry McLaurin Anytime TD Scorer (+105)
The public is really loving touchdown scorer props, which makes sense given how high-scoring both offenses are. Bettors are especially bullish on Detroit: the second-most popular Commanders bet is a Zach Ertz Anytime TD Scorer, just the 10th-most popular bet overall.
Even at significant minus odds, bettors are extremely confident that Gibbs will find the end zone, as he has done in each of his last five games. This season, the second-year pro was fifth in the league in rushing yards and led it with 20 total scores. He found the end zone, either as a rusher or a receiver, in 13 of his 17 games. This season, Washington allowed 16 rushing touchdowns, the most among the remaining playoff teams.
The public is also backing Gibbs to be the first player to find the end zone, which he did three times this season. It’s a decent bet, especially given the Lions’ run-first offense, but his teammate David Montgomery (+500) is probably more likely to record the first score. This season, Gibbs recorded 57 carries, 360 yards, and three scores in the first quarter, slightly fewer than Montgomery, who had 60 carries and six touchdowns in the opening frame and scored the game’s opening touchdown six times.
The public was also high on both members of Detroit’s elite wide receiver duo, tapping both of them to find the end zone on Sunday even against a solid Commanders secondary that allowed 16 touchdowns to the position this season, tied for the 10th-fewest in football. Williams recorded a touchdown in seven different games this season, while St. Brown found the end zone at least once on 11 different occasions. St. Brown led the team with a 34.4% target share within the red zone and a 14.4% target share on throws into the end zone, but Williams still had at least a 10% target share within the red zone and on throws into the end zone.
For Washington, bettors were confident that McLaurin, who recently set the single-season franchise receiving touchdowns record, would score as well, as he did in nine of his 17 regular-season games. He also found the end zone during the Commanders’ Wild Card Round win, recording seven catches for 89 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown that put Washington up with just under 10 minutes to play.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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