The NFL Playoffs are onto the Divisional Round and there is a great matchup between the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders. Here is a full preview of the matchup and the best bets to make at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Lions had an exceptional season, going 15-2 and earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They patiently waited for the past week to see who they would face in the Divisional Round. The Commanders pulled off the upset over the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round to earn the right to face the Lions in Detroit.
This is going to be a tough matchup for Washington but it has proven time and time again this season that it can find ways to win games. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels plays fearless and won’t back down from the moment playing in this hostile environment. That said, the Lions’ offense is the best in the league, so it will be tough for the Commanders to keep up.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lions are 9.5-point favorites and the total is set at 55.5. Here is my favorite prop bet for the game and my final score prediction.
Prop Bet: Sam LaPorta o4.5 Receptions (-115)
The Lions had the highest-scoring offense in the NFL in the regular season. They have the best running back duo in the NFL, one of the best receivers in the NFL in Amon-Ra St. Brown and a deep ball specialist in Jameson Williams. They also have Sam LaPorta, who is often overlooked because he doesn’t put up the flashy numbers that the others do.
LaPorta is essential to this team both in the run and passing game. He’s a great blocker and a reliable possession receiver for Jared Goff. While Williams goes deep and St. Brown is typically the first read for Goff, LaPorta finds space in the middle of the defense and gives Goff an outlet. LaPorta is a great target to keep the Lions ahead of the sticks and can safely pick up a first down rather than risking a downfield shot.
The second-year tight end had an incredible 65 percent of his receptions go for a first down, compared to only 55 percent last season. He had a slow stretch in the middle of the season where he was somewhat phased out of the offense but he came on strong to end the regular season. LaPorta averaged 5.8 receptions and 67 yards per game over his final five games of the season. He had over 4.5 receptions in four of those five games so he has been consistently clearing this number. The Commanders’ defense ranks 22nd in EPA/dropback and Goff should have a good amount of success moving the ball through the air. LaPorta should be able to keep his run of good form going and make a few grabs against the Commanders.
Score Prediction
This matchup features two of the best offenses in the league. The Lions finished the season third in offensive EPA/play with the Commanders just behind them in fourth. Both offenses rank inside the top five in EPA/rush and EPA/dropback which is why they are both so dangerous. Opposing defenses can’t just take away the pass because they will run all over you and vice versa.
Among qualified quarterbacks, Goff finished third in the NFL in EPA/play and Daniels finished sixth. Both quarterbacks are capable of having incredible games, but both have also made poor mistakes before.
Goff has been fantastic this season but throughout his career, he has allowed mistakes to compound. He had a terrible five-interception performance against the Texans earlier this season (a game in which Detroit miraculously won) and in one of their two losses this season, Goff threw two bad interceptions against the Buccaneers. Similarly, Daniels has been fantastic this season and will win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year because of it. However, the games that the Commanders have struggled in this season have been Daniels’ worst games for the most part. The Commanders have had major defensive issues in some of their losses this season, but Daniels has had bad turnovers and taken bad sacks in key spots in most of their losses.
This game could easily come down to whether or not one quarterback makes a bad mistake in a key spot. The rookie quarterback is almost always more likely to slip up, but Daniels showed incredible poise against the Buccaneers en route to their win in his first career playoff start. Daniels became just the third quarterback in NFL history to win his first career playoff start on the road against an opposing quarterback with playoff experience, joining Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. The atmosphere in Detroit and the actual opponent on the field will be on a different level in this game, but Daniels seems up to the task.
Ultimately, it’s hard to envision the Commanders getting many stops in this game. They did a good job of limiting explosive plays and holding the Buccaneers to field goals, but this Detroit offense is arguably the best in the NFL. The Commanders’ defense finished the regular season 22nd in defensive EPA/play.
Daniels has proven all season that he can hang with any opponent in this offense and he should be able to keep up for a while. The Commanders might even use their momentum from last week’s win to jump on the Lions early. However, the Lions’ offense will eventually overpower the Commanders and win the fourth quarter to pick up the victory in an exciting shootout.
