The NBA season is in full swing with the midpoint of the season nearly upon us. Tonight holds a jam-packed slate of NBA action with 11 games tipping off.
The opening game will take place in Philadelphia as it hosts the New York Knicks. The Sixers are on the second night of a back-to-back with Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, Joel Embiid and a few other notable names missing in last night’s loss to the Thunder. A half-hour later, the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics will tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Four games will tip off at 8:00 p.m. ET. This includes the Bucks hosting the Magic, the Grizzlies playing the Spurs, the Bulls facing the Hawks, and the Pelicans taking on the Mavericks. An hour later, the Denver Nuggets will take on the Houston Rockets at the same time as the Utah Jazz host the Charlotte Hornets.
There are still three games in the late-night slate. At 9:30 p.m. ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Golden State Warriors. A half-hour later, the Miami Heat will take on the Los Angeles Lakers and the final game of the night, tipping off at 10:30 p.m. ET, will be between the Los Angeles Clippers and Brooklyn Nets.
With plenty of action on the NBA schedule, here are my favorite prop bets across the Wednesday slate.
Joel Embiid Over 27.5 Points (-105)
UPDATE: Joel Embiid has been ruled OUT for tonight’s matchup with a foot sprain. He has now played 13 of a possible 39 games on the season.
It has been a disastrous start to the season for the Philadelphia 76ers with Joel Embiid’s lack of availability being the driving reason why. The former MVP has suited up for just 13 of a possible 38 games this season for a variety of issues. Most recently, he has missed five consecutive games due to a foot sprain that originated on the Christmas Day victory over the Boston Celtics.
While he remains on the injury report, there is a growing expectation that Embiid will be available for tonight’s matchup with the Knicks. This rematch of last year’s playoff battle does not hold quite the same intensity, but the Sixers need to capitalize on every possible win they can get as they hold a 15-23 record on the season. This is the second night of a back-to-back for the Sixers and they seemingly chalked up last night’s game with three stars, four total starters, and four other rotation players missing the matchup.
Embiid got off to a slow start to the season but has looked more like himself the more games that he has gotten under his belt. He has eclipsed 27.5 points in the past four games that he was on the court and has averaged over 30 points per game over each of the past three seasons. Even while battling knee and facial injuries during last year’s playoffs, Embiid averaged 33.0 points per game in last year’s playoff matchup with the Knicks. The injury concerns for Embiid have had far more to do with his ability to bounce back than it has to do with what level he can produce on the floor. The biggest change in New York has been the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns, whom Embiid has had great success facing in his career. Towns also finds himself questionable on the injury report with a thumb injury, so the Knicks could be even more depleted at the center spot if he cannot go. Expect Embiid to provide some normalcy to this Sixers team and lead the scoring attack tonight. Look for him to score over 27.5 points against a team and matchup that he has had success against in the past and with rest on his side.
Brook Lopez Under 16.5 Points & Rebounds (-115)
The Milwaukee Bucks will host the Orlando Magic tonight with these teams sitting in fourth and fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Orlando has done an impressive job navigating its injury issues this season and leaned on a defensive identity. The Magic rank first in the league in opponent points per game and also allow the fewest rebounds per game.
Brook Lopez has been a vital part of this Bucks team for several years, but his age is starting to show. The 36-year-old is averaging 12.1 points and 4.7 rebounds across his 31.7 minutes per game. Lopez has been held under 16.5 points and rebounds in 20 of the 37 games he has played this season. This includes the past two games and four of the past six matchups.
While Goga Bitadze, who has played extremely well this season and as of late, is set to miss this matchup, there are plenty of other frontcourt options that will provide some issues. Jonathan Isaac exploded for his first 20+ point and 10+ rebound game since 2019 earlier this week and finally appears healthy. Much of Lopez’s offensive production is built off three-point shots created from Giannis Antetokounmpo’s drives. Orlando is built to contain the two-time MVP better than most teams, so expect these looks to be difficult to come by. Count on the youthful Magic roster to cause some issues for the aging Lopez and for the veteran to be held under 16.5 points and rebounds for the 21st time this season.
Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (-120)
It is shaping up to be a two-man race for the NBA MVP with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic seemingly battling it out. Jokic already has three of these awards to his name but is producing at a career-best statistical output. So far this season, he is averaging 31.2 points, 13.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists. He is also leading the NBA in three-point percentage, connecting on 47.1% of his long-range shots while attempting 4.6 per game.
Denver will face off with the Houston Rockets tonight on the second night of a back-to-back after defeating the Mavericks last night. Houston is a tough defensive-minded team that ranks third in opponent points per game and has given up the second-fewest assists on the season. However, Jokic is in a tier of his own when factoring in the impact that defenses can make.
Jokic has recorded over 8.5 assists in 20 of the 33 games he has played this season and in seven consecutive games leading into this matchup. He is averaging 11.3 assists per game across this stretch. While the bar is already incredibly high, Jokic has particularly shined as a playmaker in recent games. Expect him to continue building off this and for Jokic to record at least nine assists again tonight as Denver continues to get healthier as a team.
James Harden Over 7.5 Assists (-145)
The final matchup of tonight’s slate will be between the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Clippers. This will be the second game back at the Intuit Dome since the California wildfires and it is expected to be Kawhi Leonard’s third game in front of the home fans. Los Angeles has done an excellent job staying afloat as Leonard has battled his injury issues, but this Clippers team will not reach its peak without their best player settling in.
James Harden deserves most of the credit for the team’s outlook in the standings. The former MVP has played attack-minded basketball for the first time in several years and is averaging 21.5 points, 7.9 assists and 5.9 rebounds on the season. With Leonard back in the fold and the breakout of Norman Powell remaining a factor, Harden can settle into a more playmaking-oriented role, which has seemed like his preferred method of play in the later stages of his career.
On the season overall, Harden has recorded over 7.5 assists in 18 of the 36 games he has played. Harden has eclipsed 7.5 assists in all three games that Leonard has played, averaging 11.3 assists in these matchups. Brooklyn is entering the race for one of the true bottom-feeders in the league and has traded away multiple veterans as further evidence. Expect the Clippers to focus on continuing to help Leonard shake the rust off and for Harden to be content playing in a pass-first role. Count on the two-time assists champion to tally over 7.5 assists for the fourth straight game with Leonard playing alongside him.
