The final matchup of the opening week of the NFL playoffs will be between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams. This game was originally scheduled to take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California but amid the tragic fires in the state, it has been moved to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona which is the home of the Arizona Cardinals.
Minnesota finished the season with a 14-3 record and would have been hosting a playoff game if they were in multiple other divisions. Unfortunately, they lost the Week 18 matchup with the Detroit Lions to fall to the Wild Card seed and now will battle for the right to have another chance at them later in the playoffs. The Vikings had a wildly successful regular season and finished ranked ninth in points scored and fifth in points allowed. Sam Darnold had an impressive resurgent season proving capable of elevating the offense beyond what was expected.
It has not been as smooth of a pathway for the Rams this season but they found their way into the dance nonetheless. After starting the year 1-4, they finished with a 10-7 record and managed to win the NFC West. They did not shine statically, finishing the year ranked 20th in scoring and 17th in points allowed, but played better football down the stretch and much of the core from the 2022 Super Bowl team remains in place. These two teams faced off in Week 8 with the Rams producing a 30-20 victory.
The Vikings enter this game as 2.5-point favorites and -142 on the Moneyline. The Rams are +120 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 47.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Wild Card weekend finale.
Kyren Williams Under 84.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
It was an impressive season for Kyren Williams as he operated as the bell-cow rusher within the Rams system. The Notre Dame product finished the season with 316 carries for 1,299 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. He ranked seventh in rushing yards and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns. However, this will be a tough matchup against this Vikings defense.
Minnesota finished the season with the fifth-fewest points allowed, ranked second in rushing yards conceded, and fourth in net yards per rush attempt. Their front seven has been dominant and the Vikings rank first overall in blitz rate and sixth in pressure rate. They stack the box often and are effective at closing down running lanes even without this. While Williams ran for 97 yards in the first meeting between these two teams, yards were not easy to come by and it took him 24 carries to reach this.
Looking at Williams’ production, he has averaged 81.2 rushing yards per game and has been held under 84.5 rushing yards in seven games. Blake Corum has stolen some carries from Williams as the season progressed, but I have a hard time seeing the Rams getting much production on the ground regardless of who is carrying the football. Expect Minnesota’s defensive line to set the tone in this matchup and for Williams to be held under 84.5 rushing yards in this matchup.
Matt Stafford Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-110)
With the strong defensive line of the Vikings in mind, expect Matt Stafford to see some additional offensive responsibility put on his shoulders. While Stafford was a bit more erratic this season than is expected for the Super Bowl Champion, he is still plenty capable of taking over a game and playing at a high level. On the season overall he completed 65.8% of his pass attempts for 235.1 passing yards per game, 20 passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Looking at his volume of opportunity, Stafford is averaging 32.3 pass attempts per game and has gone over 33.5 passing attempts in seven games. This includes the first matchup with the Vikings in which the 36-year-old was 25-of-34 for 279 passing yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. Injuries have limited their availability this season but Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp still have a case for the best wide receiver duo in the NFL and this is the Rams’ most dangerous area of attack.
It feels only right that the fate of the Rams season will be decided on the weight of Stafford’s shoulders and expect the quarterback to see plenty of opportunity in this matchup. This will only be magnified if the running game is fully shut down. He attempted as many as 49 throws in a game already this season and is comfortable being the driving force of an offense. Count on Stafford to show up with the playoff stakes in mind and air the ball out at least 34 times in this matchup.
Sam Darnold Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
It has been an incredible season for Sam Darnold this year. The former third-overall pick has successfully found his footing with the Vikings and stepped up in a major way. Darnold completed 66.2% of his pass attempts and threw for 4,319 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions overall. He finished the year ranked fifth in the NFL in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns.
While the production is indisputable, this will be Darnold’s first playoff matchup and a different intensity than he is accustomed to. In addition, Sean McVay and the Rams are extremely familiar with the Vikings’ tendencies as head coach Kevin O’Connell served as the Rams’ offensive coordinator for two seasons before taking the job with the Vikings. Instead of backing Darnold’s arm, I like him to use his legs more than he is accustomed to and eclipse the low total of 11.5 rushing yards.
Darnold has rushed for 212 yards this season and averages 12.5 rushing yards per game. He has rushed for 10+ yards in ten games this season and logged at least two carries in 15 of the 17 games he has played this season. In addition, the Rams have struggled against rushing quarterbacks this year. Kyler Murray ran for 91 yards across his two matchups, Jalen Hurts ran for 39 yards, Josh Allen tallied 82 rushing yards, and even Brock Purdy reached 41 rushing yards against the Rams. While Darnold surely will not be confused for Lamar Jackson, he is a capable runner and leans on his legs more than he is given credit. It could take just one good run to eclipse 11.5 rushing yards and expect Darnold to take off a few times in this matchup.
Aaron Jones 70+ Rushing Yards (+155)
The rushing line for Aaron Jones is set at 58.5 in this matchup, but expect his impact to be larger than this indicates. Jones has made a strong impact on this Vikings team this season after spending the first six seasons of his career with the Packers. The 30-year-old rushed for 1,138 yards and five touchdowns and added 408 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns through the air.
Jones has rushed for an average of 66.9 rushing yards per game and ran for 58 yards in the first matchup with the Rams. Los Angeles has struggled against the rush this year ranking 22nd in rushing yards allowed and 26th in net yards per rush attempt. The Rams utilize their linebackers in coverage at a high rate which limits the numbers in the box and will make life easier for Jones to get to the second level. This will especially be the case as stopping Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will be at the forefront of the Rams’ minds.
While he was held to 58 yards in this first matchup with the Rams, this marked Jones’ seventh-worst rushing output of the season. He has rushed for over 70 yards in eight games this season. While Cam Akers has made a bit of an impact in taking carries from Jones, expect them to lean on the veteran with the playoffs on the line. Consider a ladder-style bet for Jones’ yards and expect him to make a strong impact in this matchup.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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