The NFL playoffs are now underway with two games kicking off the Saturday slate. Sunday will be even busier with three matchups kicking off throughout the day in the normal NFL time slots.
At 1 p.m. ET, the Buffalo Bills will host the Denver Broncos as rookie Bo Nix makes his playoff debut. Kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET, the Philadelphia Eagles will match up with the Green Bay Packers. The final game will be taking place at 8 p.m. ET and be between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders.
One of the best parts of DraftKings is the opportunity to pick a new squad every week with their variety of DFS contests. While the stakes have changed as the number of games is cut down there are still plenty of options on the DFS slate. Here is my top lineup for the Sunday slate.
Quarterback:
Baker Mayfield ($6,800)
The career resurgence for Baker Mayfield down in Tampa Bay is real. The former No. 1 overall pick is playing the best football of his career and in a very fantasy football-friendly fashion. Mayfield finished the season ranked fourth among all players in fantasy production based on DraftKings scoring. He finished with 401.8 total fantasy points or an average of 23.6 points per week. Only Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase outperformed this mark.
Looking at the Sunday matchups, Mayfield ranks fourth in price with Josh Allen ($8,200), Jayden Daniels ($7,500), and Jalen Hurts ($7,200) each holding higher price points on the Sunday slate. Mayfield outperformed each of these names from a fantasy perspective in the regular season and has a favorable matchup in this opening round.
The Buccaneers will face off with the Washington Commanders who greatly outperformed expectations on the season. While Daniels surely changes the outlook of the franchise moving forward, they feel a bit ahead of the curve at this moment. Washington ranks 18th in points allowed and 13th in yards conceded on the season. They also rank 15th in passing touchdowns allowed. Expect experience to play a factor in this matchup and for Mayfield to carve up the Commanders’ defense in a way Daniels cannot match.
Tampa Bay leans heavily on the shoulders of its quarterback and will be confident in Mayfield delivering. Don’t be surprised if he is the day’s leader in points from the quarterback position. Save a little money for other positions by plugging him in your lineups.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley ($8,500)
Saquon Barkley enters as the most expensive running back on the Sunday slate and is worth paying the premium. The Philadelphia Eagles star has raised the ceiling of their offense in a major way this year and led the NFL in rushing. Barkley became just the ninth running back of all time to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a season and also added 278 receiving yards and 15 total touchdowns.
Philadelphia elected to rest Barkley in the final week of the season rather than allow him to chase the NFL’s all-time rushing record, so he will be fully unleashed this week. The Eagles will face the Packers who have a very respectable defense, but Barkley is a caliber of talent that this should not change the mindset. This will be the second matchup of the season between these two sides as they opened up the year with a matchup in Brazil. Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns while adding 23 receiving yards and a touchdown in the victory. This also was only the ninth-most rushing yards he tallied in a game this season.
Expect the Eagles’ game plan to involve a heavy dose of Barkley and for him to be in the driver’s seat for the leading DFS output on the day. Green Bay’s defense is good, but Barkley has waited his entire career to have a team capable of rallying around him in a playoff setting. Expect him to deliver in the Wild Card round.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800)
Brian Robinson Jr. continues to be one of the more underrated running backs in the NFL. The Alabama product rushed the ball 187 times this season and tallied 799 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished ranked 29th in fantasy production based on DraftKings scoring with an average of 12.2 fantasy points per week.
Tampa Bay holds one of the weaker defensive units in the playoffs and ranks 16th in points allowed and 18th in yards given up on the year. While their rushing defense improved over the second half of the year, they were gashed for 244 yards on the ground when they played for the Ravens and Washington produced 138 rushing yards against them in the first matchup. Daniels did the majority of the damage in this game, but Robinson still added 89 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in the opening-week matchup.
Expect Robinson to see about 15 opportunities with the ball in his hands and make the most of his chances. This game has a chance to be a shootout and Robinson will be looked at as one of the top scoring options each time the Commanders reach the red zone. Don’t expect him to win you the week but feel confident in Robinson pulling his weight and outperforming his $5,800 price point.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith ($5,700)
Sometimes DeVonta Smith gets lost in the shuffle of all the talent in the Philadelphia offense. The former Heisman winner would be looked at as a No. 1 wide receiver on several NFL teams. Smith missed four games this season which led to him breaking his two-year streak of over 1,000 receiving yards. Across the 13 games he did play, Smith tallied 68 receptions for 833 yards and eight touchdowns.
During the first matchup with the Packers, Smith tallied seven receptions for 84 yards. Green Bay ranks 13th in passing yards allowed, ninth in passing touchdowns conceded and 11th in net yards per pass attempt. Philadelphia has multiple key weapons on offense, so Smith will not see the level of defensive attention that his talent commands.
With the Packers set to have most of their focus on slowing down Barkley and A.J. Brown, expect Smith to have his opportunities to punish this Packers team. Smith finished the season ranked 17th in fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring. Don’t be surprised if he ends up with a better statistical output than Brown and comfortably outperforms his $5,700 price point.
Khalil Shakir ($5,300)
The Buffalo Bills elected to move on from Stefon Diggs before this season and entered with a more committee-based approach at the wide receiver position. Khalil Shakir headlines this effort for the team. He finished the regular season with 76 receptions for 821 yards and four touchdowns. He finished the season ranked 36th in fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring.
The Bills will host the Denver Broncos in this matchup who hold a strong defense. Denver ranks third in points allowed and seventh in yards given up overall but is weaker against the pass. They rank 19th in passing yards allowed. Allen has played at an MVP level this season and will not be fully stopped in this matchup. Shakir has flashed some notable chemistry with Allen in the ad-lib plays and will be the primary option on most offensive passing plays anyway.
Shakir has tallied at least two receptions in every game this season and is averaging 54.7 receiving yards per game. Expect him to lead the passing attack and for Buffalo to need to put up some significant points due to their defensive issues. Count on Shakir to deliver on his opportunities and outperform his $5,300 price point.
Jalen McMillan ($5,200)
There are plenty of options for the most impressive rookies but Jalen McMillan has quietly made his case as the season progressed. The Washington product tallied 37 receptions for 461 yards and eight touchdowns overall, but he was especially impressive to close the season. Over the final five weeks, McMillan tallied 24 receptions for 316 yards and seven touchdowns.
Look for him to build off this as they face the Commanders. While McMillan had seven of his eight touchdowns during the final five weeks of the season his lone other touchdown reception occurred in the Week 1 matchup with the Commanders.
Tampa Bay is a pass-first offense that leans heavily on the production of Mayfield. McMillan has done a nice job building chemistry with Mayfield over the final few weeks of the season and Mike Evans is sure to dominate the focus of the Washington defense. Expect McMillan to be heavily involved in the offensive attack and find the end zone for the sixth consecutive week.
Flex
Marvin Mims Jr. ($5,100)
Another late-season breakout wide receiver has been Marvin Mims Jr. Nix’s growth throughout the season has injected life into the entire Broncos offense and the 22-year-old has benefitted from this. Mims took a step forward in his second season and finished with 39 receptions for 503 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Nearly all of this damage occurred over the final seven games of the season in which Mims tallied 28 receptions for 434 receiving yards and all six of his touchdowns.
Expect Mims to build off this impressive close to the season. Denver will have the benefit of facing the Bills defense which has struggled in a major way this year. On the season overall, Buffalo ranks 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards given up. They especially struggle against the pass and rank 24th in passing yards and passing touchdowns conceded.
While Nix is a bit of a question mark in his first postseason matchup, Mims has earned his trust over the closing weeks of the season. Expect Mims to provide the balance on the other side of Courtland Sutton and for him to vastly outperform the players in his same price range.
Tight End
Tucker Kraft ($3,700)
Tucker Kraft enters the week as the fifth most expensive tight end trailing Zach Ertz ($4,300), Cade Otton ($4,100), Dalton Kincaid ($4,000), and Dallas Goedert ($3,900). Kraft is coming off a solid season and finished ranked 14th among tight ends with an average of 9.7 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring. The second-year tight end tallied 50 receptions for 707 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
Green Bay will have its hands full with this Philadelphia Eagles team. But with an injury to Christian Watson and the Eagles corners playing at a high level all season, don’t be surprised if Kraft is a bigger piece of the game plan than expected. Philadelphia has allowed an average of four receptions to tight ends per game. Kraft has tallied as many as 24.8 fantasy points in a game this season. With tight-end production being inconsistent across the board this season, I like Kraft to have the best chance to outperform his price point and have a successful fantasy output.
Defense & Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles Defense & Special Teams ($2,700)
The Philadelphia Eagles are rightfully looked at as legitimate Super Bowl contenders and their defensive growth throughout the season has been a major reason why. They rank second in points allowed, first in yards given up and have forced the sixth most turnovers in the league. They also have allowed the fewest passing yards and and net yards per pass attempt.
Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio has gotten the defensive unit to buy in throughout the season and made some key personnel changes like plugging rookie Cooper DeJean into the slot corner role. The Eagles forced an interception from Jordan Love in the opening week matchup and have only gotten stronger since.
Expect Philadelphia to impose themself with its physicality in this matchup. The unit has been opportunistic in its ability to force turnovers and can have the Packers playing directly into its hands if it can take a lead. Expect these turnover opportunities to lead to a strong defensive showing and for the Eagles to be completely comfortable running out the clock if they take a lead, which will help the defense’s case.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
