It is a small four-game NBA slate today as the NFL Playoffs take center stage in the sports world.
Weather issues have shrunk the slate. The Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks matchup was postponed due to icy conditions. In addition, the Los Angeles Lakers’ matchup with the San Antonio Spurs, and the game between the Los Angeles Clippers and Charlotte Hornets, were pushed back due to the ongoing wildfires in Southern California.
The first matchup that will take place is tipping off at 5:00 p.m. ET between the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. At 7:00 p.m. ET, the Toronto Raptors will play the Detroit Pistons. An hour later, the Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Memphis Grizzlies. The final matchup will take place at 10:00 p.m. ET between the Portland Trail Blazers and Miami Heat.
While there will be more eventful nights on the NBA schedule, here are my favorite prop bets in each Saturday night matchup.
Bradley Beal Over 16.5 Points (-120)
The Phoenix Suns made a surprising decision to move Bradley Beal to the bench as the trade rumors heat up. Whether this has lit a fire under him or just made more sense for his fit within the team, there results have been promising. He has scored 25 points in two of the three games since coming into this bench role.
On the season overall, Beal is averaging 18.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. He is shooting 49.3% from the field and 39.2% from beyond the three-point arc. He has recorded over 16.5 points in 14 of the 26 games he has played this year. While the sample size is small, he is averaging 20 points per game in his three games coming off the bench.
Beal has a great chance to add to this as he prepares to face off with the Utah Jazz tonight. Utah enters with a 9-27 record and ranks 26th in opponents points per game. The youthful roster lacks the required resistance to stop Beal or the rest of this Suns team even amidst their struggles. Whether it’s to prove why the Suns should continue to believe in him or a statement about why other teams should desire his talent, expect a strong effort from Beal and for him to eclipse 16.5 points again tonight.
Cade Cunningham Over 26.5 Points (-110)
The All-Star leap looks to be here for Cade Cunningham. The former number-one overall pick is averaging 24.3 points, 9.3 assists, and 6.6 rebounds per game while leading the Pistons to a 19-19 record firmly in the playoff mix. Cunningham is playing with increased confidence this year and has especially played in attack mode of late. Over the past four games, he is averaging 29.3 points and has scored over 30 points in three of the four matchups.
On the season overall, Cunningham has scored over 26.5 points in 12 games. This includes three of the past four games and six of the last 11. Detroit is set to face off with the Toronto Raptors tonight, who have had their defensive struggles. They enter with an 8-30 record and rank 27th in opponent points per game.
Expect Cunningham to continue to play in attack mode and eclipse 26.5 points tonight. This will be the third matchup between these two teams this season. Cunningham missed one of these matchups and struggled to score in the other with 15 points, shooting just 6-21 from the field and 2-9 from beyond the arc. Expect better results tonight as he builds off his recent string of strong play and goes over 26.5 points tonight.
Santi Aldama Over 5.5 Rebounds (-110)
The Memphis Grizzlies deserve a bit more respect for where they stack up in the Western Conference. They sit in third place and hold a 24-14 record on the season. Players like Ja Morant and Desmond Bane headline the team’s production, but in many ways, Santi Aldama is the glue that holds them together. Aldama has started 11 of the 32 games this year and is averaging 13.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists across his 25.6 minutes per game.
Aldama is second on the Grizzlies in rebounds trailing only Zach Edey. Jaren Jackson Jr struggles when being looked at as the sole big man and Aldama has helped with this. The Loyola product has recorded over 5.5 rebounds in 23 of the 32 games.
Memphis will face off with the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight and the rebounding battle will play a key role in crowning the victor. Both the Grizzlies and Timberwolves rank in the top 10 in opponent rebounds per game and Memphis is second in the league in team rebounds overall. While his overall rebounding output will decrease some now that Edey has returned from injury, the 5.5 line is too low based on the level of opportunity and success he has had. Count on him to record over 5.5 rebounds for the 24th time this season.
Anfernee Simons Under 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-145)
The final matchup of today’s NBA slate will take place between the Portland Trail Blazers and Miami Heat. The Heat continue to navigate the Jimmy Butler trade situation, but the action continues on the floor. Portland sits in the early stages of their rebuild and is 13th in the Western Conference with a 13-24 record.
Anfernee Simons has been one of the major beneficiaries of the freedom he is granted in the offense. The 25-year-old is averaging 18.6 points, 5.1 assists, and 2.7 rebounds per game. However, he has struggled some from beyond the three-point arc this year. Simons is shooting 35.8% from beyond the arc on 8.1 long-range attempts per game, slightly below his 38.3% career three-point average.
Simons has been held to under 3.5 three-pointers in 21 of the 34 games he has played. The Heat rank 11th in opponents’ three-point percentage on the season. They have further leaned on their defensive identity amid the Butler drama. Miami has held opponents to 100 points or fewer in three of the past four games. The 3.5 line for made three-pointers is too high based on how he has shot the ball this season and the opportunities will be hard to come by in this matchup. Count on Simons to be held to less than 3.5 three-point makes for the 22nd time already this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
