Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 8:00pm ET)
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
The Ravens and Bills will be popular moneyline parlay legs this weekend, but pairing the two together is only -210. That’s much too steep of a price, and while I rarely play a 7-point teaser, I think -140 is more than a fair price to get both of these teams down under a field goal.
Removing Denver’s Week 18 win over a Kansas City roster that sat all key players, its only win over a .500 team this season was against Tampa Bay. And that was in a game the Bucs were decimated with injury, not to mention sandwiched between signature wins over the Lions and Eagles. Denver caught Tampa at the right time. Going to Buffalo and getting a win over a healthy Bills squad in the playoffs seems like a tall ask for Bo Nix and company at this stage.
While the Steelers have the advantage of playing a divisional opponent for the third time this season, I don’t see much going for them beyond that. Sure, maybe Mike Tomlin and the defense can cook something up against Lamar Jackson to keep it within 10 points, but I don’t think Pittsburgh has much of a chance to win this game with how the offense is playing. Last Saturday night was a dreadful performance (and miracle +2.5 cover) for the offense, and it came against a Cincinnati secondary that hasn’t been able to get a stop all season. That game was also at home, and against familiar division competition. I’m not expecting things to get much better here on the road against a gritty Baltimore squad.
Look for the Ravens to be able to run the ball, and get just enough through the air to make some game changing plays. Derrick Henry’s prop is set at 98.5 rushing yards, and I do expect him to be a big factor — he ripped off 24 carries for 162 yards last month in a win over Pitt. While I haven’t backed Henry yet, I may look into a Same Game Parlay on him. Henry to rush for 100+ with a touchdown in a Ravens win is priced at +160, and has nice correlation.
The Play: 7PT Teaser: BAL -2.5/BUF -1.5 (-140) – 2.5-units
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
