NFL Wild Card Weekend is upon us and the action will be hot and heavy.
Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating of the Underdogs podcast broke it all down and discussed a team that could be a potential dark horse this weekend.
The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook as they host the Packers. Jalen Hurts was a full practice participant on Thursday coming off a concussion and looks to be on track to play, as does Packers QB Jordan Love (elbow), who was also a full practice participant. What Peter thinks is really cool statistically about this game is that sometimes numbers can hold extremes and sometimes you can see extremes in the statistical tracks a team leaves. For example, Green Bay has the lowest expected points allowed per pass at -.09, a tremendous number for a defense that Peter points out is having a great season. That’s an average number. Opponent success rate is actually 43 percent on passing plays, whereas Green Bay only ranks 23rd. Similarly, the Packers are seventh in the league in sack rate at 7.6 percent, but 25th in the league in percentage of scramble plays allowed for big gains.
Peter says these are all signs of a boom or bust defense and in this case their aggression is allowing some plays but also clamping down on what opponents can get in the passing game. And Peter says this is what you want in a playoff underdog — a team that at its best is shutdown, and that is what Green Bay is. So, yes they allow some big plays, but overall they have an extraordinarily effective defense and as an underdog, they have the high-risk high-reward play we’re looking for. And Peter points out that on the other side of the ball, Love is having an even better season than you think he is. So he likes Green Bay’s chance if they’re playing at their very best.
Jordan has been circling Green Bay as the most dangerous non-division winner for a while, but they have some concerns. Those are health and the fact that they haven’t done well against good teams. He points out that most of their wins have come against non-playoff teams and says they haven’t proven that they can beat a top team this season. Yes, they went on a big run last year in the playoffs and they have some talent, but Jordan thinks the Eagles are the best team in the conference. He’d be much more likely to look at a Green Bay upset if they were playing someone other than Philadelphia. And he says these pass defense stats won’t matter much if the Eagles are blowing them off the ball running with Saquon Barkley and Hurts.
When it comes to who they think will win the Super Bowl, Peter thinks this is the Ravens’ year. He thinks they have it all together and they’re a fun team to watch. As far as a dark horse, he likes the Chargers. Jordan, for his part, would be shocked if it’s anyone other the Chiefs, Ravens or Bills representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. As far the Big Game goes, he has the Bills vs. the Eagles, but he needs some time to see how things play out. His dark horse is the Commanders, who he thinks has the advantage over the Packers in that they get to face the Bucs first rather than having to go through the Eagles like the Packers do.
Watch or listen to the whole show below and make sure to keep an eye on the Underdogs podcast feeds on Apple and Spotify as well as the new Underdogs YouTube page for future episodes!
Watch or listen the full episode below!
AUDIO:
Why the Packers Could Upset the Eagles – An NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview
Peter makes a case for why Green Bay is a Super Bowl dark horse. Jordan takes a victory lap about his preseason Bills pick. On this episode, the guys break down everything you need to know about this weekend’s wildcard match-ups across the NFL.
VIDEO:
Be sure to check out more episodes of Underdogs on the Underdogs YouTube page and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts! You can also follow Peter on X at @PeterKeatingNJ and Jordan at @JordanBrenner.
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