The Buffalo Bills will host the Denver Broncos to kick off Sunday’s slate of NFL Wild Card Weekend.
Josh Allen has put together an MVP-caliber season and led the Bills to a 13-4 record. Buffalo won the AFC East and is the second seed in the conference. The team ranks second in the NFL in scoring and leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns. The Bills’ Achilles heel is on the defensive side of the ball.
It is a surprise to see the Denver Broncos in the playoffs after holding little to no expectations entering the year. Rookie Bo Nix has exceeded all expectations and helped lead the team to a 10-7 record. Denver has a strong defense that ranks third in points allowed and has one of the most dangerous pass rushes in the league.
The Bills enter this game as 8.5-point favorites and -440 on the moneyline. The Broncos are +340 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 47.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the opening-round playoff matchup.
Bo Nix Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+130)
Regardless of how this game ends up, this season should be viewed as a major success for Bo Nix. The 12th overall pick made a Rookie of the Year campaign for himself and if it were not for such a strong class, he would have a legitimate case. Even still, he has an opportunity to build off this against a struggling Bills defense.
On the season, Buffalo ranks 11th in points and 17th in yards given up. They especially struggle against the pass and rank 24th in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. Nix had a slow start to the season, being held without a passing touchdown for the first three weeks, but was strong down the stretch. Overall he has thrown for over 1.5 touchdowns in 10 of the 17 games and for 29 total passing touchdowns on the season.
Nix threw 12 touchdowns across his final four games and over 1.5 touchdowns in seven of his last eight games. Buffalo has given up at least two passing touchdowns in four of their last five games. Its issues are mostly personnel-based and there is no clear fix from the end of the regular season until now. The stage will be large but look for Nix to get off to a strong start to his playoff career and throw for at least two touchdowns against a struggling defense.
Bo Nix Over 0.5 Interceptions (-155)
While there is plenty to like about Nix, there also are some head-scratching decisions mixed in. This is perfectly normal for a rookie quarterback. It will take more experience to fully eradicate this from his game. The Oregon and Auburn product has thrown 12 interceptions this season which is tied for fourth in the NFL.
Buffalo has its defensive concerns but ranks fifth in the NFL with 16 interceptions. They also had a league-leading four interceptions on passes behind the line of scrimmage. This could be a factor as the Broncos may look to attack through the short pass and screen game to get Nix to settle in. The rookie targeted pass-catchers behind the line of scrimmage at the third-highest rate among quarterbacks this season.
In addition, the game script will play a huge factor in his turnover risk. Buffalo is a significant favorite for a reason and Nix will be forced to make some plays if the Bills take a lead. Look for desperation to kick in throughout the game and for Nix to be forced to air the ball out. Count on him to have a slip-up at some point in this matchup and for the Bills to capitalize by producing an interception.
Keon Coleman Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Wide receiver was a point of concern for the Bills entering the season after they moved on from Stefon Diggs and entered with a more committee-based approach. Keon Coleman was one of the headliners and has taken some significant strides forward this season after being selected with the 33rd overall pick. The Florida State product finished the year with 29 receptions for 556 yards and four touchdowns. He has recorded over 29.5 receiving yards in seven of the 13 games he has played.
Denver’s defense will be its saving grace if it is has a chance in this game. It ranks third in points allowed and seventh in yards given up. However, the Broncos have had far more success stopping the run compared to opponents’ passing attacks. They rank 19th in passing yards conceded.
Allen has not been stopped by any defense this season and will need to throw the ball to someone. Coleman has grown in his role as the season has progressed and logged as many as 125 receiving yards in a game. Expect the rookie to rise to the challenge and record at least 30 yards in his NFL playoff debut. It could take him just one catch to reach this total, and there should be enough volume to reach this low total.
Mack Hollins Anytime Touchdown (+350)
One of the larger surprises throughout the season has been the emergence of Mack Hollins. The journeyman wide receiver has found his footing in Buffalo and flashed some notable chemistry with Allen. He tallied 31 receptions for 378 receiving yards and a team-high five receiving touchdowns. Hollins is 6-foot-4 with a wide catch radius which especially stands out in the red zone.
Patrick Surtain II is among the best corners in the NFL, but he will be more focused on Coleman and Khalil Shakir. Not having a clear-cut top wide receiver is both a weakness and a strength for the Bills. While they missed the production of Diggs throughout the season, there is no player to be specifically focused on near the goal line. Expect Buffalo to spread the field and for Hollins to have a few opportunities to secure his first playoff touchdown.
Getting +350 odds for the player who led the Bills in receiving touchdowns is great value. Look for his wide catch radius to be a factor in this game and for Allen to be willing to give him a chance at a jump ball in the end zone at least once. Buffalo is too talented of an offense for their passing game to be completely shut down, and I like Hollins to be the guy who comes through and finds the end zone.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
