The Golden State Warriors saw their 2023-24 season end Tuesday in brutal fashion at the hands of the Sacramento Kings in the 9-10 play-in game. The Warriors beat these Kings in the first round of the playoffs a year ago, highlighted by Stephen Curry’s 50 points in Game 7 in Sacramento to seal the series. There would be no such heroics this time around for Golden State, as the Kings had a massive surge in the second half to win 118-94.
One of the biggest sore spots in this loss was the performance of Klay Thompson, who is set to hit free agency this offseason. The second Splash Brother couldn’t hit San Francisco Bay if he was standing on the Golden Gate Bridge, going 0-10 in the game and 0-6 from behind the arc. It capped a frustrating year for Thompson, who now heads into the summer with the possibility of departing the only franchise he’s ever known.
Here’s a look at how the Warriors should approach Thompson’s free agency, what assets they have to make moves in the summer and whether they can extend their dynastic run into Stephen Curry’s final seasons.
Thompson’s market value
Let’s get one thing clear; Thompson is unlikely to command a salary that will pay him anywhere close to an average value of $43 million per year, which is what he made in 2023-24. Even though there’s a premium on perimeter shooting in the league, Thompson’s age and decline defensively put him in a tough position when asking for that kind of money.
Thompson was wildly inconsistent this season, even getting benched at one point late in the year. In the first 22 games of the year, he averaged 15.4 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the floor and 34.3% shooting from deep. He appeared to get hot with a six-game stretch immediately following this rut where he put up 25.7 points per game on 53% shooting and a 50% clip from deep. However, he fell back towards normalcy over the next few months before heating up late. Thompson put up 21.9 points per game on 48.5% shooting and 41.8% shooting from deep over the last eight games.
Shooters go through variations naturally, but Thompson’s swings were too extreme for someone making north of $40 million. There might be a team out there with cap space and nothing to lose willing to put a long-term deal on the table worth close to $35 million annually but it’s hard to envision that. Golden State should have the opportunity to come in around this range and get a deal done.
Golden State’s cap situation
Curry is on the books for two more seasons, while Green has two more seasons and a player option thanks to his deal last summer. Chris Paul’s $30.8 million deal for next season is not guaranteed, so he’s going to be waived before that guarantee triggers. The Warriors might try to trade him but there’s no market for the veteran guard. Andrew Wiggins, who was dismal this year, is also on the books for two more seasons. The Warriors may have more luck trying to deal him, which they’ll certainly attempt to do. In short, Golden State will have the ability to bring back Thompson without obliterating their cap situation.
How the roster looks around Big 3
The Warriors never really got to see how Paul would fit in this team due to his injury but the benefit of that was rookie Brandin Podziemski stepping into a bigger role. Podziemski showed he could be a fixture in this rotation. Wiggins’ decline was balanced out by Jonathan Kuminga’s rise. Kuminga reportedly demanded to be traded at one point but those frustrations were seemingly put to bed. Moses Moody had a strong showing in the play-in game and has generally been able to contribute as a role player. Trayce Jackson-Davis cracked the rotation this year and provided decent minutes, so he should continue to grow into a more sizable role. Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II were part of the 2022 title team and are decent contributors.
The interesting thing will be how the Warriors navigate the Wiggins situation. He’s clearly not the player he was during the 2022 NBA Finals, and his presence hinders Kuminga from taking an even bigger leap. Golden State has a top-4 protected pick in the upcoming draft which it will very likely not retain, so that’s off the table. The Warriors do have all their picks available until 2030, which means swaps are also on the table should they look to make a big move. It’s hard to see any star players asking out of their current spots but a player like Mikal Bridges or Dejounte Murray could be worth targeting.
Should the Warriors bring Thompson back?
Everything in professional sports is relative to a player’s contract. There’s a lot of sentimental value surrounding Curry, Thompson and Green in Warriors circles. They’ve been together for so long, and they’ve created the most successful era in franchise history while doing so. This level of continuity is rare in today’s NBA landscape.
If Thompson is willing to take a concession on salary and come back for a deal in the $25-30 million range annually, the Warriors should be willing to pay that. They have to be confident he can figure out how to be more stable in his play, which is most likely to happen in this environment as opposed to going to another team. There’s enough assets to move where Golden State should give this trio more chances at contending, which means bringing Thompson back.