The NFL playoffs are finally here, and the first game of Wild Card Weekend will once again feature the fourth-seeded Houston Texans (10-7), who have had the 4:30 p.m. Saturday game in each of their eight previous postseason appearances. This time, their opponent will be the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Chargers, who finished a surprising 11-6 in new head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first season.
The Texans limped into the postseason with two losses in its final three games and an unconvincing win over a Tennessee Titans unit whose loss earned it the first overall pick in this summer’s NFL Draft. However, it picked up a few solid wins earlier in the year, including a Week 5 victory over the Buffalo Bills in which it held MVP favorite Josh Allen to nine-for-30 passing. Anything can happen in the playoffs, although Houston’s history isn’t great, as it’s never made the AFC Championship Game.
The Chargers, meanwhile, finished the season with three straight wins, with a narrow victory over the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos and blowout wins over the hapless New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders. Harbaugh is 5-3 in his playoff coaching career from his earlier stint with the San Francisco 49ers, so Los Angeles has the coaching edge over second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Justin Herbert ($15,000 CP) – Early in his career, Herbert was a reckless gunslinger who threw double-digit interceptions in each of his first three seasons. This year, he has evolved, becoming a far more cautious passer who posted a league-leading interception rate and completed 65.9% of his passes for 23 touchdowns and only three picks. His 101.7 passer rating was a career high and the seventh-highest in football.
Also, while the Chargers started out pretty conservative, they have leaned on Herbert far more in recent weeks. For the season as a whole, Los Angeles only called pass plays on 54.7% of total snaps, the 10th-lowest percentage in the league. However, Herbert attempted at least 30 passes in each of his last five games and was stellar with his increased responsibility, completing 70.8% of his passes and averaging 263.8 yards and two touchdowns per game. The Chargers’ offense is fully healthy going into the postseason, so Herbert should shoulder a big load once again on Saturday.
He should have no problem being effective against a beatable Texans secondary that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing signal callers. While Houston has allowed only 3,751 yards, the seventh-fewest in football, it has also conceded 31 touchdowns, the third-most in the league. The Texans allow only the fourth-lowest passer rating, but it’s mostly attributable to the fact that opposing quarterbacks have posted the worst completion percentage (58.8%) and thrown the second-most interceptions (19) against them. With a 78.9% on-target throw percentage, the sixth-highest rate in football, Herbert should be able to avoid the costly mistakes that Houston’s secondary has capitalized on.
Quentin Johnston ($11,700 CP) – As the Chargers’ second-leading target, Johnston had a breakout game in Week 18 against the Raiders, hauling in 13 of his 14 targets for 186 yards, his second 100-yard performance of the season. His monster game offset some less productive games earlier in the season and allowed him to finish with a very respectable 55 catches, 711 yards, and eight touchdowns. Despite his 60.44% catch percentage ranking in the bottom third among qualified wide receivers, I still like him as a Captain’s Pick over his teammate, Ladd McConkey, given that McConkey costs $3,000 more.
McConkey’s production might also be limited by the presence of Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who was named to his first Pro Bowl roster after nabbing five interceptions and notching 54 tackles and 18 passes defended. Stingley has hounded some of the league’s top receivers, holding Miami’s Tyreek Hill to 36 yards in Week 15, Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas Jr. to 76 yards in Week 13, and Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown to 60 yards in Week 10. Quarterbacks have been held to just a 51.2 passer rating when targeting Stingley, but Houston’s secondary depth is thin. Quarterbacks have recorded a 140.7 passer rating when targeting Jeff Okudah and a 64.0 passer rating against Kamari Lassiter, so if Stingley shadows McConkey all game, Johnston should see plenty of action.
FLEX Plays
Nico Collins ($10,800) – Collins’ 2024 season can be split up into two distinct phases: the first five weeks of the season, before his five-game injury absence with a hamstring injury, and the last seven weeks, after his return. In the first five weeks, Collins led the league in receiving yards, topping the 100-yard plateau three times and notching 32 catches, 567 yards, and three scores. However, after his return from injury, he has recorded just one 100-yard game, totaling 36 catches, 439 yards, and four touchdowns. With his inconsistency, it wouldn’t be worth it to spend $16,200 to make him a Captain’s Pick.
Collins should still be fine against Los Angeles, especially given that he’s pretty much quarterback C.J. Stroud’s only reliable target since Stefon Diggs went down with a torn ACL in Week 8 and Tank Dell suffered a gruesome knee injury on December 21. Overall, Collins leads the Texans with a massive 25.3% target share overall, 30.8% inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, and 23.8% on passes into the end zone.
The Chargers have been decent against the pass, allowing just 3,762 yards — the eighth-fewest in the league — and the 13th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. However, none of Houston’s other options have been particularly effective, so when the lights are brightest, Stroud will lean heavily on Collins.
C.J. Stroud ($9,400) – Talk of a sophomore slump for Stroud has been largely informed by his brilliant play as a rookie, when he threw 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions, leading the Texans to the playoffs and finishing eighth in MVP voting in his inaugural season. He’s still had a decent year, completing 63.2% of his passes for 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 picks despite the injuries that have decimated Houston’s receiving corps. Sure, he’s struggled in recent weeks, recording just an 81.6 passer rating over his past five full starts, but he’s still a talented quarterback.
Even though Los Angeles has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Stroud is still worth a play. The Chargers’ rushing defense is particularly strong, so having Stroud throw the ball is a better option than having Joe Mixon run it, as I’ll outline below. In Stroud’s last three full games, he dropped back to pass on 66.7% of his snaps, the third-highest rate in football.
Fades
Joe Mixon ($10,200) – Like Stroud and Collins, Mixon was one of the best players at his position in the first half the season and has struggled recently. He rushed for at least 100 yards in seven of his first 10 games of the season, but in four games since, his yardage totals have been meager: 23, 57, 26, and 23, although he didn’t play the entire game in the season finale. The 3.23 yards per carry he averaged over his final four games would be the second-worst in football, ahead of only the Raiders’ Alexander Mattison.
I especially don’t like his prospects against the Chargers, who have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Los Angeles has allowed just 1,576 yards and a league-low four touchdowns to opposing running backs, and although the Chargers have also allowed 481 yards and three touchdowns through the air to running backs, Mixon hasn’t been a major factor in the Texans’ passing game in recent weeks.
THE OUTCOME
Ultimately, Los Angeles comes into the postseason with plenty of momentum. Herbert is playing the best football of his career and combining volume with efficiency, while Stroud has taken on more volume with inconsistent production. Meanwhile, the Chargers have gotten healthy and figured out how to effectively use their running back tandem of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins.
Houston is simply too injured to win this game. With a slumping Mixon and both Diggs and Dell out for the season, the Texans don’t have any real offensive weapons, and their defense isn’t good enough to compensate. Houston will crash out of the playoffs in the Wild Card Round for the third time in its franchise history.
Final Score: Los Angeles 27, Houston 10
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All views expressed are my own. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
