The Commanders are the surprise team of the playoffs. After a 4-13 record last season, Washington’s rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, won 10 games and has taken the franchise back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Daniels is the heavy favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year after his sensational season. This is one of the best offenses in the league and they are capable of beating anybody, having won five straight games, including one over the Eagles, to make it to this point.
The Commanders are +4500 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl, the 10th-best odds of the 14 playoff teams. There is a considerable drop-off from the Chargers at +2800, who have the ninth-best odds, to the Commanders and the rest of the field. In this piece, I will dive into whether the Commanders’ ceiling is winning this Wild-Card game or if they can go deeper into the postseason.
Team Breakdown
The Commanders have had a fantastic season. Jayden Daniels jumped out to a great start and looked to be the most NFL-ready of all the rookie quarterbacks. He suffered an injury to his ribs in the middle of the season and the Commanders struggled while he was not at 100%. They lost three straight games in November and looked like they might drop out of the playoff picture. However, Daniels got healthier, Washington had a late bye week and it won five straight games to end the regular season. The Commanders have a lot of momentum and are playing their best football of the season coming into the postseason.
The Commanders’ offense has led the way for them this season. They finished fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA/play by finishing fourth in EPA/pass and fourth in EPA/rush, a perfectly balanced offense. The Commanders also finished fifth in offensive success rate and 10th in overall DVOA. This was no fluke and they are a legitimate playoff team that could win multiple games. If Daniels plays up to his potential with weapons like Terry McLaurin and Brian Robinson Jr. at his disposal, this offense could outscore anybody.
Although he has been criticized for his coaching decisions in the past, most famously in the Falcons’ 28-3 Super Bowl collapse against the Patriots, Commanders head coach Dan Quinn does have a good amount of playoff experience. He has a 3-2 head coaching record in the postseason, including that NFC Championship with Atlanta. Quinn is a great defensive coach and he has improved this unit throughout the season. They improved from 24th to 19th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play from the first half of the season to the second half. In the second half of the season, they rank seventh in defensive success rate and fourth in defensive dropback success rate. They have really improved their defense by creating negative plays and forcing third-and-longs out of opposing offenses.
Wild-Card Round Prediction
The Buccaneers are three-point favorites at home against the Commanders on Sunday night. These teams actually faced off in Week 1 of the regular season in Tampa Bay, so it is only fitting they face off again in the opening round of the postseason. The Bucs won that regular-season matchup in convincing fashion, 37-20. However, these are two very different teams than they were in Week 1. That was Daniels’ first career start and he had to do it on the road against a team that ended up being a division champion. On the Tampa Bay side, Chris Godwin was its leading receiver in that game and he is out for the season. Its second-leading receiver and leader in carries was Rachaad White, who now has an incredibly minimal role in this offense.
The Commanders are hoping to get their star cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, back for this game. Lattimore missed a few games late in the season and attempted a return toward the end of the regular season but was still not healthy, so Washington rested him for the last two games of the season. The Washington secondary is exponentially better with Lattimore on the field, especially with Mike Evans on the other side. Evans and Lattimore have one of the biggest personal rivalries in football from their time in the NFC South together when Lattimore was a Saint for many years. They have had multiple on-field fights and even more words exchanged on and off the field. If Lattimore can play and limit Evans, then the Washington defense has a chance to slow down Tampa Bay.
With or without Lattimore, the Buccaneers have the better defense in this matchup. The offenses are comparable but Washington’s offense has a slight edge over Tampa’s looking at the season as a whole. If Washington is going to win this game, it likely needs to be through the air. Tampa Bay ranks 19th in defensive EPA/play and 27th in defensive dropback success rate. However, it ranks in the top eight in defensive EPA/rush and rushing success rate. So despite the great rushing attack Washington possesses, it will need to air it out in this game. Tampa Bay will need to do the same on offense, especially if Lattimore does not play. That is why I expect this to be a high-scoring game, as both teams should be able to hit deep shots and move the ball through the air. Ultimately, I think Daniels and the Commanders will pull off the upset in a shootout and advance to the next round.
Final Score: Commanders 31, Buccaneers 28
Futures and Best Bets
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Commanders are +4500 to win the Super Bowl and +1800 to win the NFC, the worst odds in the conference. The oddsmakers are not giving the Commanders a real chance to even make the Super Bowl. They are short favorites against the Bucs in the Wild-Card Round and have a real shot to win that game. If they do pull off the upset, they will take on the winner of the Packers-Eagles matchup. The Eagles are in the NFC East with the Commanders so they play each other twice a season. They split the regular-season series with the Commanders, winning the more recent matchup, so they are capable of pulling off the upset against Philadelphia. If the Commanders win and the Packers win, the Commanders would actually get to host that game, so they would definitely have a good shot to win that game.
A potential NFC Championship Game matchup on the road in Detroit would be the heavy underdog scenario for Washington. It would take the perfect game for the Commanders to pull off an upset in Detroit to make the Super Bowl. There is always a chance that somebody on the other side of the bracket pulls off that upset for them but the Lions will be favorites in every game of the NFC Playoffs. Rookie quarterbacks are 5-12 in the postseason since 2010. However, C.J. Stroud did win his first career playoff start at home last season, so elite rookie QBs like Stroud and Daniels are capable of winning in the playoffs.
Ultimately, there is a path for the Commanders to win two games and make it to the NFC Championship Game. However, it is hard to imagine them upsetting the Lions on the road in the NFC Championship Game. However, at 18/1 odds there is a lot of value on them to win the NFC. They are short underdogs against Tampa Bay and I think they have a great chance to win that game. With so much familiarity against a division opponent like Philadelphia, upsets are always possible and if they face Green Bay at home, they will have a great chance to win that game. If you can take that 18/1 ticket into the NFC Championship Game against the Lions, you would have the chance to hedge and guarantee yourself a great profit. So the two bets I would place on the Commanders before the playoffs start is on them to win the NFC at 18/1 and the over in their game against Tampa Bay.
Best bets: Washington to win the NFC (18/1); Buccaneers-Commanders o50.5
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
