The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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THE FIELD
The field this week grows in size by about 100 players as we get our first official full event of 2025. There will be 144 players in the event this week, along with the usual Friday cut line, which will see just the top 65 players and ties play the weekend. For DFS purposes, getting all six of your players through will be crucial for a chance at high finishes in large-field GPPs.
As has become customary with the Sony Open, the field loses many of the big names from the week before. This year, the event will be headlined by top 10 player, Hideki Matsuyama, who won this event in 2022 and won last week in Maui. The field will also include Tom Kim, who didn’t play last week, but is the third favorite at +2000 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There are plenty of other names in the field from last week, including Corey Conners, Sahith Theegala, and 2013 Sony winner Russell Henley.
Overall, the more recent winners at the Sony Open tend to be a mixed bag. Young budding superstars like Justin Thomas and Cameron Smith have grabbed wins at this event, but veterans like Matt Kuchar and Kevin Na have also excelled. If the weather cooperates (see below), then expect lower scoring again, as two of the last four winners have reached 21 under par or better.
THE COURSE
Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii
Par-70, 7,044 yards; Greens: Bermudagrass
The Waialae Country Club is a traditional par-70 course that features trickier Bermuda greens and smaller, narrow fairways; in many ways, it’s the complete opposite in style to the venue we saw last week. Waialae is one of the oldest courses on the PGA TOUR and maintains some quaintness for being a “classic track” that emphasizes tight driving chutes and strategy over daunting size. That said, the softer greens in play and lack of any penal rough often won’t allow the technical nature of this track to overcome the skill of the PGA TOUR pros. Winning scores at this venue have been as low as 21 under par or better in three of the past six years. The good news is that the hotter weather and winds can often dry this course out and make the greens extremely tough, which has kept scoring down in recent seasons, and likely will again in 2025 (see weather below).
Setup-wise, Waialae features just two par 5s, making par-4 scoring more crucial. Five of the par 4s measure between 450-500 yards in length and will require longer irons on approaches, especially if drives are off-center. There are a couple of opportunities for players to grip and rip off the tee, but placement is vital off the tee. The fairways are some of the tightest on the PGA TOUR, with the field averaging between 52-54% accuracy most seasons.
It’s not that Waialae has many penalty areas or trouble to get into, but players can cut themselves off from accessing the green on approach if they get too wild. And with smaller greens, having the best sightlines into the greens is vital — especially if you are not a great around-the-green player.
Accuracy off the tee is important, but traditionally, this is a course that favors players with great approach games who can get into a rhythm on these slower Bermuda greens. The 2018 winner, Patton Kizzire, ranked 67th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee for the week but third in SG: Approach. Justin Thomas also didn’t rank in the top half of the field in accuracy off the tee the year he won — and he still won by seven strokes.
In 2019, Matt Kuchar gained +5.5 strokes on approaches and also gained over +7 strokes on the greens. In 2022, Hideki Matsuyama was solid in his ball striking but struck gold with his putter, gaining a career-best 7.3 strokes putting for the week. In 2023, Sio Woo Kim put on a ball-striking clinic gaining 8.2 strokes on approach (first in the field) but was barely positive putting (+0.9 strokes). When it comes down to it, recent form in the major ball-striking categories is certainly a great start for success on Waialae, but the need to sink as many 5-15 footers as possible and be smooth around the greens is just as vital.
Veteran players with good recent form — who have experience on these slower Bermuda greens — should be given a solid look this week and can be great value options for DFS or betting options in the top 40 or top 20 markets. Otherwise, we’re playing the positive regression game and hoping our supreme ball-strikers can put in a decent week with the flat stick, much like Kim and Matsuyama have done the past few years.
2025 weather outlook: The wind this week looks like it will be a factor. As of writing, all four days have gusts reaching into the 12-20mph range with afternoon winds on Sunday potentially being the worst of the bunch. That could make for some big movement on the leaderboard come the final day especially if the early starters get better conditions. Thursday is gusty all day but the winds do rise in the afternoon so early starters will have an advantage. As of now, Friday is set to be the calmest day with winds potentially starting in the 7-8 mph range in the AM. This is likely going to be the best scoring wave of the first two days so targeting players here would be appropriate. However, if Thursday AM players get a break things could even out. Wave stacking for DFS this week makes sense, but I would hesitate to go too heavy on one wave over another.
LAST FIVE WINNERS
2024–Grayson Murray -17 (playoff, Byeong Hun An and Keegan Bradley)
2023—Si Woo Kim -18 (over Hayden Buckley -17)
2022—Hideki Matsuyama -23 (over Russell Henley playoff)
2021—Kevin Na -21 (over Chris Kirk -20)
2020—Cameron Smith -11 (over Brendan Steele playoff)
WINNING TRENDS
– 12 of the past 14 winners of this event had a T8 or better finish in one of their last four starts prior to their Sony Open win.
– Nine of the past 14 winners of this event ranked inside the top 50 on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting for the year in which they won.
– 9 of the last 13 winners of this event played in the Tournament of Champions the week prior.
Winners Stats and Course Highlights
Grayson Murray (2024 winner, 17-under-par)
2024 lead-in form (MC-T57-T7-T6-MC)
SG: OTT—+5.1
SG: APP—+1.9
SG: TTG—+8.9
SG: ATG—+2.0
SG: PUTT—+2.8
- In 2023, Kim didn’t play in the Sentry TOC event the week prior in Maui but he had played a lot of over the fall in 2022 and landed a T8 in one of his previous four starts at the Shriners.
- Murray took a similar path to victory last season. He played a lighter schedule over the fall but rode some decent late-summer form into an improbable playoff win.
- Kim excelled on approach, to the point that he could afford to miss some shorter putts. Kim gained the lowest number of strokes putting (+0.9 strokes) of any event winner over the past decade.
- In 2024, Murray gained over 4.0 strokes around the green and putting combined. That’s been a more regular route to winning for champions at this event.
- 2022 winner Hideki Matsuyama gained 7.3 strokes putting when he won and 2021 winner Kevin Na gained over 5.0 strokes putting + ATG combined.
- Waialae has some of the hardest-to-hit fairways on the PGA TOUR — the field averages around 52-54% of fairways hit — and even the most accurate players off the tee will miss a fair number of fairways. Last season winner Murray gained over 50 strokes OTT and was 14th in Driving Accuracy.
- Placement OTT is key, though. If you are stuck between two players, going with the more consistent off-the-tee player (the one who will find more fairways) will likely mean a few more birdie looks — Matsuyama was 20th in accuracy OTT in 2022 and fifth in SG: OTT stats. 2023 winner Si Woo Kim was T13 in Driving Accuracy.
FINDING VALUES
This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Daniel Berger +6000 and $7,500
Comparable:
Denny McCarthy +6000 and $7,600
Tom Hoge +6000 and $7,700
Cam Davis +6000 and $7,900
Luke Clanton +4000 and $8,400
Comparable:
Austin Eckroat +4000 and $8,700
Davis Thompson +4000 and $8,500
All odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
(These players have had a lot of success at this event over their career.)
1. Russell Henley ($9,900; best finishes: 2nd-2022, win-2014): Henley has blitzed Waialae multiple times in his career. He famously blew a five-shot lead at this event in 2022 on the back nine on Sunday but was also one of only two players that year to get to 23-under par. A winner here in 2014 (his first-ever PGA TOUR start), he also finished T4 at this event last season.
2. Matt Kuchar ($7,200; best finishes: win-2019, T7-2022): Kuchar won this event back in 2019 and finished T7 at this event in 2022 and 2023. The smaller greens and tight driving chutes make it an ideal setup for a player who relies on accuracy over power. He’s gained over 2.0 strokes putting now in eight of his last 11 starts at this event.
3. Chris Kirk ($7,800; best finishes: T2-2022, T3-2023): Kirk has played this event a ton over his career and likes the flow of holes and setup at Waialae. He’s finished in the top five at the Sony four times in his career and was also T18 here last season. He’s only finished outside the top 20 once at this venue over the last four seasons.
4. Corey Conners ($10,200; best finishes: third-2019, T1-2022): Conners is one of the most consistent iron players in the game, so it’s not shocking he’s done great on this target-to-target setup where power gets somewhat deemphasized. He was third here in 2019 and finished T12 or better at this venue three times between 2020-2023.
5. Nick Taylor ($7,100; best finishes: T7 in 2023 and 2024): Taylor has finished top 10 at this event in each of the past two seasons. The veteran has performed well at these sort of shorter seaside venues over his career having also won at Pebble Beach. The tougher conditions this season should suit him making him a nice darkhorse pick for GPPs.
RECENT FORM
1. Maverick McNealy ($9,200, Recent finishes: T8-win): McNealy is feeling it right now. He’s finished T17 or better in each of his last four starts on the PGA and grabbed his first win just two starts ago at the RSM. The setup this week looks ideal for a putter/ATG game of his caliber as well.
2. Austin Eckroat ($8,700, Recent finishes: T15-T17-win): Eckroat grabbed his second win over the fall and looked in great form again in Maui. He finished T15 there and gained strokes across the board. If his putter heats up, he could easily find himself in contention in this weaker field.
3. Harry Hall ($8,100, Recent finishes: T8-T14): Hall has been surprisingly consistent ever since his breakout win in the summer. He’s finished in the top 15 in four straight starts and has gained strokes ATG now in 11 straight starts.
4. Vincent Whaley ($7,000, Recent finishes: T8-T5): Whaley had a strong fall with a bunch of made cuts and two top 10 finishes to end his year. He’s an elite putter and if that club keeps working for him he’ll have every chance of posting another big week.
5. Michael Kim ($7,300, Recent finishes: T11-T12): Kim made four cuts to end his fall swing. The former John Deere winner had some great weeks ball-striking to end last year and has plenty of experience playing this event. He’s very boom or bust but does have appeal this week for big fields in DFS.
DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Power and English nice value duo
At the top of the board this week I think using some kind of combo of Henley/Matsuyama/Conners to start makes sense. However, if you do that you’ll need cheaper options to fill out your lineup which will make names like Harris English ($7,500) and Seamus Power ($7,400) important. English has a great track record at this event and posted two top-10 finishes in the fall. He also has a world-class ATG game which should help in the windy conditions. Power has played solid over the last six months and sets up extremely well for these shorter venues. If you need to go further down, both Rico Hoey ($7,000) and Vince Whaley ($7,000) have appeal at this venue and their number.
Tournaments: Berger could surprise
I’m surprised to see Daniel Berger at $7,500 this week given his overall pedigree and the fact his last start saw him barely miss out on a win at the RSM, where he finished T2. The American has been making his way back from a serious injury and made some major strides in the fall where he grabbed two top 10s. He’s a great par 70 player and finished T7 in his last start at Waialae CC back in 2021. Sepp Straka ($8,000) is another name in the same range who has a lot of upside this week, even if he is a tad risky. The Austrian had a couple of good rounds last week in Maui and gained over 5.0 strokes around the greens which could be a good sign for this week given the wind expected. Straka likes these target courses and has made the cut at Waialae in each of his last three appearances. Below him, names like Taylor Moore ($7,000), Henrick Norlander ($6,800) and Jesper Svensson ($6,800) all look like decent boom or bust targets for big field GPPs.
MY PICK: Russell Henley ($9,900)
Henley is by no means a bold pick this week but I do think he makes sense as a core play to build around for DFS. The veteran finished a very mid-T30 last week but the expansive Plantation Course isn’t quite as ideal a setup for a player like Henley as the narrower Waialae.
Henley was sharp around the greens though in Maui, gaining 4.6 strokes ATG for the week, and overall he’s 13th in strokes gained ATG over the last 24 rounds of play. With the wind up this week, it should give him a bigger edge on the field this week around a course that has some of the smallest greens on the PGA.
I would also expect Henley’s approach numbers to go up, and go up substantially this week. He’s a terrific wedge player (7th in proximity 125-150 yards; 5th 150-175 yards) and with smaller targets in play that should only help his edge on the field on a course where he’s shot 5-under-par or better on five times in his last 12 competitive rounds.
At under 10k, he’s someone you could still pair with one of the other two big names (Conners or Matsuyama) in Stars and Scrubs builds, or use as your top player in a balanced lineup. For betting, I’m fine taking the +2000 outright number on him at DraftKings Sportsbook given both the past history and sharpness he showed ATG last week in Maui.
MY SLEEPER: David Lipsky ($6,600)
It’s hard not to like this setup for Lipsky, who had some big weeks as a cheap DFS play in the fall. The American is a great short-iron player who has seen an uptick in some other parts of his game recently that has led to some bigger finishes. Over the fall, he managed three top-10 finishes in six starts, including a T9 at the Bermuda Championship.
While he can be an up-and-down putter, both his around-the-green game and putting were working for him in the fall and if that trend continues, his iron game (22nd on approach last 24 rounds) is good enough to allow him to compete on this tighter course. Lipsksy’s played this venue three times in the past and while he’s missed the cut twice, his T4 from back in 2023 (+5.6 APP; +2.7 PUTT) at the Sony demonstrates the kind of upside he possesses on these more classic venues when he has his short game and putter working.
I don’t see much downside to using him at this price tag for DFS in GPPs, and certainly, after his fall swing, you could argue he’s being somewhat undervalued compared to the field. For betting, I’m all for laddering Lipsky in the placing markets from top 20 (+800) down to top 10 (+2000) and top 5 (+5500) on the DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
