There are nine games on the NBA slate tonight as the season approaches its halfway point.
The Phoenix Suns made headlines late last night with their plans to reduce Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic to off-the-bench roles as tensions rise within the organization. After starting the season 8-1, the Suns have dropped to 15-18 and are in 12th place in the Western Conference. They will travel to Philadelphia tonight to face the 76ers, who are beginning to turn their season around.
In addition, the New York Knicks will host the Orlando Magic, the Minnesota Timberwolves will face the Los Angeles Clippers, the San Antonio Spurs will play the Chicago Bulls, and the Memphis Grizzlies will take on the Dallas Mavericks. The final matchup on tonight’s slate will be between the Sacramento Kings and Miami Heat as both teams navigate their internal turmoil.
Here are my favorite prop bets on the Monday night slate.
Joel Embiid Over 29.5 Points (-105)
UPDATE: Joel Embiid has been ruled out for tonight’s game due to a left foot sprain.
For possibly the first time all season, the Sixers will not be the team with the most internal concerns in the matchup when they take the floor. There is still plenty of work to be done but the Sixers have won 11 of their last 16 games and have begun climbing up the Eastern Conference. At the heart of this has been Joel Embiid being on the floor more consistently and returning to his expected level of play.
Across the 13 games he has played, Embiid is averaging 24.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. Excluding his ejection against the Spurs and when he left the matchup with the Pacers due to injury, Embiid is averaging 31.5 points per game across the past eight games he has started and finished. Even after being held to 20 or fewer points in each of his first three games, Embiid is returning to form and has tallied over 29.5 points in five games this season.
Tonight’s matchup with the Suns is a great chance for the former MVP to assert himself as a scorer. Phoenix ranks 20th in the NBA in points allowed and 20th in points in the paint. With Nurkic being sent to the bench it seems most likely Mason Plumlee will be elevated to the starting lineup unless the Suns elect to go small-ball. In either case, Embiid should have a direct line to plenty of scoring opportunities. Look for him to be in attack mode from the opening tip with the Suns lacking any great options for matching up with the two-time scoring champion. Count on Embiid scoring over 29.5 points for the sixth time this season in one of the friendlier matchups he could get.
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 14.5 Rebounds (-115)
UPDATE: Karl-Anthony Towns has been ruled out for tonight’s game due to a knee injury.
The New York Knicks took a risk by making a significant trade for Karl-Anthony Towns shortly before the season started. Towns has been everything the organization could have hoped for and more through the start of the season. The four-time All-Star is averaging 25.4 points, 14.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. While his 14 rebounds per game currently leads the entire NBA, this will be a tough matchup for Towns on the boards.
New York will be hosting the Orlando Magic, who have a number of impressive frontcourt players and are holding opponents to the fewest rebounds on the season at 40.7 per game. They also allow the fewest second-chance points and the lowest offensive rebounding percentage in the NBA. The Magic have battled injuries but do an excellent job rebounding as a team and putting a body on opponents. They also play at the seventh-slowest pace of play, so there should not be additional opportunities.
While Towns will still make his impact felt, 14.5 rebounds is a high bar for him to reach. Even while leading the league in rebounding, Towns has been held under 14.5 rebounds in 18 of the 34 games he has played. Foul problems have also popped up for Towns as of late, which has been a frequent occurrence in his career. He has fouled out of two of the past 12 games and seen his minutes limited in a few others because of foul trouble. This is a risk on a night-by-night basis and something to factor in here. Facing a tough Magic team that is holding opponents to the fewest rebounds on the season, expect Towns to be held under 14.5 rebounds tonight.
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+120)
The Minnesota Timberwolves were on the other side of the blockbuster Karl-Anthony Towns trade and moved on from the big man to hand the full keys of the franchise to Anthony Edwards. The 23-year-old has had some impressive statistical outputs but has struggled to translate this to team success at the rate it has been hoped. Edwards is averaging 25.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game on the season.
The most notable change in Edwards’ play this season has been his production from beyond the three-point arc. He is shooting a career-high 9.9 three-point attempts and connecting at a career-best 42.1% rate. Edwards has made over 3.5 three-pointers in 23 of the 34 games he has played.
Minnesota will take on the Los Angeles Clippers. They have embraced a more defensive-minded approach this season but Edwards is at the heart of the production for the Timberwolves. He made some comments this week about his frustrations of having to play a more playmaking-focused role due to the way teams were guarding him. Edwards then responded with a 53-point performance the last time he was on the court in which he went 10-of-15 from beyond the three-point arc. Expect him to continue to be in attack mode and for there to be enough volume for Edwards to connect on at least four three-pointers again tonight.
Malik Monk Over 25.5 Points & Assists (-105)
Neither the Kings nor the Heat are in the position they desired to be at this stage of the season. While Miami continues to navigate the Jimmy Butler trade request, Sacramento elected to fire head coach Mike Brown to spark a change. The Kings are 4-1 since this point with Malik Monk looking to be the biggest beneficiary of his change in opportunities.
On the season overall, Monk is averaging 16.8 points and 5.2 assists per game. He is shooting 44.7% from the field and 36.0% from beyond the three-point arc on the season. Across his past five games following the coaching change, Monk has averaged 22.2 points and 7.4 assists. He is shooting 47.4% from the field and 38.5% from beyond the three-point arc on increased volume.
Look for Monk to remain in attack mode against the Heat tonight. He has recorded over 25.5 combined points and assists in four of the past five games and 10 times total this season. The Heat rank seventh on the season in opponent points per game but has not been able to assert themselves as consistently this season. Expect Monk to be at the forefront of the Kings’ offensive attack and record over 25.5 points and assists again tonight.
Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
