The final week of the NFL season has arrived. Buckle up for an eventful Week 18 in which teams will approach their matchups with a wide range of outlooks. Some teams are competing for their playoff lives, some teams have already been eliminated, and some have clinched their playoff slot already and will be treating this as a second bye week.
In addition, many players will be rested this week while some others will be playing for incentives in their contracts and have their eyes on set statistics. It is more important than ever to be aware of the situation for each player and team before plugging players into your DFS lineups. One of the best parts of DraftKings is the opportunity to pick a new squad every week with their variety of DFS contests.
While two games already kicked off on Saturday, there is a loaded slate of games to conclude the regular season. Here is a breakdown of some players with a great opportunity to outperform their price point in Week 18. Be sure to get some superstars in your lineup, but here are some lower-budget names who could help you win your competitions!
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Quarterbacks:
Michael Penix Jr ($5,400)
The Atlanta Falcons made a somewhat surprising decision to bench Kirk Cousins just a few months after making him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the sport. Michael Penix Jr took over for the veteran and is set to make his third career start this week. Atlanta clearly has belief in Penix after selecting him with the eighth overall pick and plugging him into the lineup with the playoffs at stake. While the door is not fully shut, Atlanta needs a win and a Buccaneers loss to punch their ticket to the playoffs.
Even if they do not find a path to the postseason, the Falcons will be heavily focused on giving Michael Penix Jr a chance to finish the season on the right foot. Through his first two starts, he has completed 37 of his 62 pass attempts for 425 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. His level of play has looked better than the numbers show but Penix has not had his breakout performance yet. He has a great chance to fully announce his presence on the NFL level as the Falcons take on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina ranked dead last in points allowed and yards given up as well as have allowed the most passing touchdowns of any team in the league.
While his fantasy outputs of 6.4 and 11.2 fantasy points are not overly impressive, expect a better performance with a porous defense in front of him. Giving Penix a strong performance to build off will be the full priority for the Falcons whether this leads to a playoff appearance or shifting focus to next year. Expect his best performance in the NFL thus far to occur this week and don’t be shocked if Penix ends as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks.
Joe Flacco ($5,400)
Anthony Richardson has been ruled out for the Week 18 finale for the Colts due to a back injury. It has been an up-and-down season for Richardson who has not consistently found his footing the way the organization had hoped. Joe Flacco will step in this week to start his sixth game of the season for Indianapolis.
Flacco’s track record speaks for itself, and there is no doubt that his best days are behind him. But the former Super Bowl champion can still make the basic reads and keeps the game simple which is especially refreshing compared to what was seen with Richardson. The Colts will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this week which also creates an incredibly favorable matchup. Jacksonville ranks 29th in points allowed and 31st in yards given up. They also are dead last in passing yards allowed, 28th in passing touchdowns conceded, and dead last in net yards per pass attempt.
Looking at his fantasy production, Flacco had 15.3 points last week based on DraftKings scoring and also had 26.6 in the first matchup with the Jaguars. The 39-year-old completed 75% of his passes for 359 yards and three touchdowns while adding 22 rushing yards against Jacksonville earlier this year. He finished fourth among quarterbacks and eighth among all players in fantasy production in this Week 5 matchup. With the same struggling defense in front of him and the Jaguars holding an even deeper desire to lose for the sake of a draft pick at this stage of the season, look for Flacco to find the fountain of youth again in this matchup and produce a strong level of fantasy production.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle ($5,800)
It has been a disastrous season for the Dallas Cowboys but Rico Dowdle has emerged as a significant bright spot. The 26-year-old will be looking to end his season on a high note and cement his case for why he should be looked at as a key part of the team moving forward. Dowdle has gradually emerged as the clear-cut top running back for this Cowboys team as the season has progressed. He has been especially impressive in recent weeks. Dowdle has recorded 100+ rushing yards in four of the past five weeks.
Overall, the South Carolina product has carried the ball 213 times for 1,007 rushing yards and a touchdown. He also has added 27 receptions for 237 receiving yards and three touchdowns through the air. He ranks 23rd among all running backs in fantasy production and is averaging 13.0 points per game based on DraftKings scoring. Dowdle has seen 18 or more carries in five of the past six games after reaching this number just once across the first nine games.
In addition, the Cowboys will be facing the Washington Commanders who have struggled to stop the run and do not have a ton to play for this week. Washington is locked into a Wild Card spot and cannot climb higher than the 6 seed they are currently slated as. The Commanders rank 28th in the NFL in rushing yards and 30th in net yards per rush attempt. Dowdle has tallied as many as 21.7 fantasy points in a game based on DraftKings scoring and expect a strong output to put an exclamation point on this season.
Kenneth Gainwell ($5,600)
Despite being just 101 rushing yards of the all-time NFL rushing record, the Eagles are planning on resting Saquon Barkley to close out the year. Philadelphia is deservingly looked at as a legitimate Super Bowl contender and will have their eyes on the larger goals as they finish off the season against Barkley’s former team. This opens the door for an increased opportunity for Kenneth Gainwell who is one of the more qualified backup running backs in the league.
Gainwell has carried the ball just 64 times this season for 276 rushing yards and a touchdown. He also has added 14 receptions for 107 receiving yards. New York has struggled across the board this season and is about as ideal of a matchup as Gainwell could hope for. The Giants enter with a 3-13 record and rank 23rd in points allowed, 24th in yards given up, 31st in rushing yards allowed, and 28th in net yards per rush attempt. They also allow the most rushing yards over expected per attempt and allow the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
Look for Gainwell to make the most of his opportunity to close out the season with Barkley on the bench. He has flashed the capability to serve as a starter for games here and there for the Eagles in the past and New York has looked lifeless more often than not in recent weeks. Plays are there to be made against this Giants defense and look for Gainwell to give his best Saquon Barkley impression against their NFC East rivals.
Wide Receivers
Drake London ($6,500)
The entire Falcons offense saw a bit of a spark following the decision to bench Kirk Cousins in favor of Michael Penix Jr. Drake London sits right at the top of this list and leads the team with a 34.4% target share and 60.0% end-zone target share in the two games that Penix has played.
On the season overall, London has tallied 90 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns. Just last week he had seven receptions for 106 yards. He ranks 10th among all wide receivers in DraftKings fantasy scoring and is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game. London also may see an increased opportunity as Darnell Mooney missed practice on Friday and is questionable for this game.
In addition to the Panthers ranking dead last in points allowed and yards given up, they are dealing with a few injuries in the secondary. Atlanta will be focused on getting Michael Penix Jr on the right path and this will involve a heavy dose of Drake London. The two have already flashed some notable chemistry and have a struggling defense to take advantage of. Expect the full breakout for Penix to occur this week and for London to be a huge part of this. Don’t be shocked if he finishes with one of the top five fantasy outputs of the week.
Jakobi Meyers ($5,700)
While Brock Bowers is rightfully headlining the Raiders’ passing game production, Jakobi Meyers has not been far behind him. Across the 14 games he has played, Meyers has tallied 78 receptions for 904 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He ranks 29th among all wide receivers in DraftKings fantasy production.
It has been a season to forget for the Raiders who will close down the season matching up the Los Angeles Chargers. Las Vegas has not played meaningful football for a while now and there is a real chance the Chargers end up resting players depending on the result of the Steelers and Bengals game. If the Steelers manage to win, there will be no avenue for the Chargers to improve their playoff seeding.
While Los Angeles still leads the NFL in the fewest points allowed, they have shown some weakness against the pass in recent weeks. Meyers has tallied five or more receptions in five of the past six games including a 10 receptions for 121 yards. There is a ton of volume of opportunity in the Raiders offense which Meyers has benefitted from. Look for him to end the season on a high note especially if this becomes a meaningless matchup from the Chargers’ perspective.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($4,000)
The Washington Commanders are locked into a Wild Card seed, but Zach Ertz has plenty to play for in Week 18. The 34-year-old has had an impressive season catching 61 passes for 610 yards and six touchdowns. He has already cashed in on a $750,000 incentive for the Commanders to make the playoffs. But he can earn an additional $250,000 if he can record nine receptions, 90+ receiving yards, or two touchdowns in Week 18. If he can reach all of these he would cash in for $750,000.
These are lofty goals but expect Ertz to go down swinging. He had six receptions for 72 yards last week and will now face a Dallas Cowboys team that has struggled on both sides of the ball. Looking at their defense, Dallas ranks 31st in points allowed, 28th in yards given up, and 29th in net yards per pass attempt. They also have allowed the ninth-most receiving touchdowns and the eighth-highest catch rate above expected. Ertz tallied six receptions for 38 yards in his first matchup with the Cowboys.
Even without too much at stake, the Commanders are not planning on resting any of their starters so there should be plenty of snaps. Ertz ranks ninth among tight ends in fantasy production overall and will be well aware of the financial stake on the line. Count on the veteran leaving it all on the field this week and capitalize by getting him in your DFS lineups.
Kyle Pitts ($4,000)
Kyle Pitts is one of the more frustrating football players in the NFL. The gap between talent and production is pretty steep, but Atlanta continues to make a clear effort to get him on track. On the season he has tallied 45 receptions for 587 yards and four touchdowns. One of these touchdowns came last week for Pitts which marked Penix’s first career passing touchdown at the NFL level.
The 24-year-old will also be the beneficiary of the matchup with the Panthers. Pitts tallied 70 receiving yards in the matchup with the Panthers earlier this season and the organization has only seen more issues pop up since this point. Carolina has allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. He also could benefit from the potential absence of Darnell Mooney who seems to be a coin flip for whether or not he will play.
This is a must-win game for the Falcons if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs so don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas. Pitts has been unable to find the level of production he saw as a rookie. This will continue to be near the top of the list for the Falcons and continuing to build chemistry with Penix will help aid this. Look for the Falcons to get him involved often against the struggling Panthers’ defense and end the regular season on a high note.
Defense & Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks Defense & Special Teams ($2,900)
The Seattle Seahawks have officially been eliminated from the playoffs and will be facing a Los Angeles Rams team that is locked into their playoff seed. The Rams decided to rest their key starters including Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and several members of the offensive line. Jimmy Garoppolo is set to start at quarterback for the first time since Week 8 of last season. These changes should take some significant bite out of the Rams’ typical offensive production.
Looking at the Seahawks production, they rank 10th in points allowed and 13th in yards given up. They rank fifth in the league in fantasy production with an average of 8.1 fantasy points per game. Expect this to be a messy game for both sides with Los Angeles having some growing pains as an offense. There should not be enough offensive production from the Rams for the Seahawks to be worried about and Garoppolo has had turnover issues pop up in his career. Expect a strong effort from the Seahawks defense to close out the season as the Rams hit cruise control as they enter the playoffs.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
