In the second matchup of the Saturday NFL slate, the Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Cincinnati Bengals.
This may not be a matchup in which either team pulls punches or rest players as there could be stakes for both sides. While the Steelers have already clinched a playoff spot, they can win the division with a victory over the Bengals and if the Ravens lose in the early game. Pittsburgh also enters this matchup on a three-game losing streak and will be looking to regain some momentum ahead of the playoffs.
Cincinnati finds themselves in a more difficult spot and have desperately been scratching and clawing to get in the playoffs for the past few weeks. While they are still mathematically alive, the Bengals need a victory themselves, and the Dolphins and Broncos must each lose on Sunday. Denver is considered 10.5-point favorites as they take on the Chiefs who are resting Patrick Mahomes and other starters. The Dolphins are set to take on the 4-12 Jets to conclude their season.
The Bengals enter this game as 2.5-point favorites in the matchup and -135 on the Moneyline. The Steelers are +114 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 47.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Saturday night matchup.
Joe Burrow Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+125)
If the Bengals do not make the playoffs this season it won’t be due to a lack of production from Joe Burrow. The former first-overall pick has played at an MVP level this season, leading the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns. The Bengals’ defense has let him down in a major way, but Burrow has continued to throw the ball at a high level and Cincinnati will leave it all on the table this week with everything on the line.
Looking at the matchup, the Steelers have struggled to stop the pass this year. On the season overall they rank 23rd in passing yards allowed, 11th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 20th in net yards per pass attempt allowed. They have been especially porous in recent weeks. Over the past five games, the Steelers have allowed the third-highest completion percentage (70.3%) and hold the fifth-highest dropback success rate (52.2%).
Burrow enters this game having thrown for over 2.5 passing touchdowns in eight consecutive games and 10 total games on the season. This includes the Week 13 matchup with the Steelers which Burrow completed 73.7% of his passes for 309 passing yards and three touchdowns. Expect him to leave no doubt in this game and for Cincinnati to especially need Burrow to deliver in the red zone considering the injury concerns with Chase Brown.
Jaylen Warren Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have quietly been leaning on Jaylen Warren more than Najee Harris in recent weeks. Warren has recorded more offensive snaps than his backfield counterpart in four consecutive games. Harris also has not seen a snap in the red zone since Week 15. Warren has outperformed Harris in just about every category when looking at equal opportunity. He is averaging more yards per carry and is generating more yards after contact.
Looking just at Warren, he has seen over 9.5 rush attempts in back-to-back games leading into this matchup and five times on the season overall. Both running backs will play a role but expect Warren to begin to officially assert himself as the primary running back.
It will be interesting to see how the Steelers approach this game, and how much the results of the early matchup change things. But there is a case to be made that either way Warren will see a significant role. The Steelers have not been playing at the level they flashed up until midseason and Mike Tomlin will be focused on finding this groove once again with the playoffs up next.
Andrei Iosivas Anytime TD (+300)
Ja’Marr Chase will dominate the headlines as he prepares to lock in the triple-crown by leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. While Chase deserves all the credit for his strong play, the Bengals also have a strong supporting case behind him. Tee Higgins has added 69 receptions for 858 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Andrei Iosivas has added 34 receptions for 467 yards and six touchdowns.
Iosivas has a strong 6-foot-3 frame that makes him a threat around the end zone. He has earned Burrow’s trust this season and been given opportunities in big-time spots to which he has mostly delivered. He ranks 60th in the NFL in target share which is extremely high for a third wide receiver.
There have been five games this season in which Iosivas has found the end zone including one game with two touchdowns. He also had a touchdown called back last week due to a penalty and was successful in scoring a touchdown against the Steelers in Week 13. Expect Cincinnati to put as many points on the board as possible and for several red zone opportunities to occur. Getting +300 odds for the Princeton product is great value with him logging 66% or more of offensive snaps in every game this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
