Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson to have a 50% chance to play today at Oklahoma City after he missed their last game. Brunson’s absence led to a catastrophic late scratch for Miles McBride in DFS tournaments and huge production for Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns for the short-handed Knicks.
The Knicks are a 4.5-point underdog on the road versus the Thunder, a spread which seeemingly gives Brunson a good shot to play. If Brunson plays today, Unabated NBA Conditional Projections would have him at 23.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists.
If Brunson is out, there will be a lot of court time opened up in a game where he projects for 35ish minutes. Brunson’s vacated 29% usage rate and 33.2% assist rate this year would also open up a lot of fantasy production for his teammates. Here’s how the Unabated NBA Conditional Projections view the rest of the Knicks without and with Brunson:
- Karl-Anthony Towns projects for 25.5 points, 14.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists (22.1 points, 14.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists if Brunson plays)
- Josh Hart projects for 13.0 points, 9.1 rebounds and 6.5 assists (12.1 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists if Brunson plays)
- Mikal Bridges projects for 18.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists (16.9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists if Brunson plays)
- OG Anunoby projects for 16.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists (14.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.7 assists if Brunson plays)
With Mr. Late Scratch Miles McBride also questionable, there could be some key value opened up for DFS slates and prop betting markets. Unabated’s simulation tools would project Karl-Anthony Towns for 13.4% Expected Value on Karl-Anthony Towns over 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line if Brunson were to sit out tonight. There’s also likely be a marked increase in ownership for the remaining Knicks with coach Tom Thibodeau’s constricted rotations.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.