Cleveland Browns at Baltiomore Ravens (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
I have a couple of props for this one, in a game in which the Ravens sit as historic home favorites. Baltimore can secure the AFC North with a win here, while the Browns’ season is over, and almost all their key players will be sidelined. This has all the makings of a blowout, but the Ravens have to be sure to get this win. That means their best players will be on the field.
Kyle Van Noy, who has 11.5 sacks on the season, can earn himself an extra $250,000 in this game if he can record 0.5 sacks. He’s now recorded at least one sack in four straight games, and I expect him to get to Bailey Zappe on Saturday to make his pockets a bit deeper.
Derrick Henry has both financial incentives and personal motivation for this game. Another touchdown this season will pay out $500,000, which Baltimore will be conscious of in this game. Henry is 217 rushing yards away from a 2,000-yard season, and while that seems crazy, he’s put up massive numbers in the final week of the season when he wants to. Here are some of Henry’s recent numbers from the final game of the season, some of which were to hit personal or financial milestones:
- 2023: 19 carries for 153 yards and a TD
- 2022: 30 carries for 109 yards
- 2021: Injured
- 2020: 34 carries for 250 yards and 2 TDs
- 2019: 32 carries for 211 yards and 3 TDs
This dude likes finishing the regular season strong. Henry enters Saturday coming off games of 147 rushing yards against Houston and 162 versus Pittsburgh. Baltimore will be playing to get some revenge after losing to the Browns earlier this season. Henry ran for just 73 yards in that game, but also had a season-low 11 carries. Cleveland’s run defense ranks fourth-worst in the NFL in road games in terms of yards per game allowed, and will be without some starters. Look for the Ravens to eat on the ground.
The Play: Kyle Van Noy OVER 0.25 Sacks (-145) – 0.75-units
The Play: Derrick Henry OVER 89.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – 1-unit
The Play: Derrick Henry 70+ Rushing Yards/Anytime TD (-130) – 1-unit
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (Saturday 8:00pm ET)
This is one of the few games this week where both teams are still playing for something. The Bengals are hanging onto their playoff hopes by a thread, and would need plenty of help on Sunday even if they were to win this game. Cincy has scraped by with some fortunate wins lately, and now faces a Steelers team that’s lost three in a row.
I like Pittsburgh to get back on track at home, though. The Steelers scored 44 points against this defense on the road last month, and should present more issues again this time. The Bengals have remained awful on defense, but have beat up on bad teams (Cowboys, Titans, Browns) before getting a fortunate win over Denver on Saturday.
While Pittsburgh has lost three in a row, it’s been to the league’s elite (Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City). The Steelers have had three extra days off compared to the Bengals, and a win here would lock them into the No. 5 seed. That should be an attractive landing spot, providing a first-round matchup against the struggling Texans.
The Play: Steelers +2.5 (-112) – 1.5-units
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
I put this one out on Twitter earlier in the week and shared some analysis with it. While the Bills have nothing to play for, it also doesn’t hurt them at all to win. It would be a big mistake for the Patriots to let an asset like the No. 1 overall pick slip out of their grasp. I’m going to trust the Pats find a way to lose this game, just as they have been all season.
The Play: Bills ML (-125) – 2-units
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
The incentive that’s gotten the most attention this week is probably Mike Evans. The long-time Buc needs 85 receiving yards for his 11th 1,000-yard season, which is great, but five grabs to go with those 85 yards would also be a $3,000,000 pay day. Baker Mayfield has essentially come out and said if we win this game (which Tampa needs to do to secure the NFC South), we’re going to get Evans his yards. I trust that the Bucs will do so as massive home favorites over a Saints squad with nothing to play for.
The Play: Mike Evans 90+ Receiving Yards/Bucs ML (-135) – 1-unit
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
Geno Smith needs 185 passing yards to secure a $2,000,000 pay day. He had 363 through the air the last time he faced the Rams, who will be sitting starters for this game. I’ll take Geno and Evans on some lower alternate props and parlay them here for what I feel is a reasonable price.
The Play: Geno Smith 200+ Passing Yards/Mike Evans 90+ Receiving Yards (-109) – 1-unit
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
I put this one out on Twitter as my favorite incentive-based prop of the week. Conveniently enough, Murray needs exactly 50 rushing yards and a touchdown to cash his $750,000 bonus. He ran for 83 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced the Niners, and now their season is over and they have nothing to play for. I like that Kyler should be able to call his own number here, so expect him to look to run the ball at any opportunity he has.
The Play: Kyler Murray OVER 28.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – 1.5-units and Murray 50+ Rushing Yards/Anytime TD (+650) – 0.5-units
The Play: Cardinals -4.5 (-110) – 1-unit
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (Sunday 8:15pm ET)
Both of these teams seem to find a way to win every single week, but somebody is going to be on the wrong side of this matchup for the top seed in the NFC. I trust the Lions just a bit more at home, and it doesn’t hurt that they’re one of the two teams that was able to knock off Minnesota back in October. This game will have a playoff-like feel to it, and I put some weight on the big game experience that Detroit has accumulated over the past couple of years.
The Play: Lions -2.5 (-120) – 1-unit
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